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May 28, 2020

The Marist Poll's America Now: National Outlook Index
Marist Poll
The Marist Poll is pleased to announce the launch of The Marist Poll's America Now: National Outlook Index. This simple measure, developed during the COVID-19 pandemic, provides insight into Americans' personal experiences and expectations for the future.

House Democrats More Trusted on Pandemic Issues
Navigator Research
Trump’s approval rating on handling health care remains low as Democrats are more trusted on a variety of health metrics related to the pandemic.

Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results. This suggests that pollsters have adjusted their sampling and weighting procedures to correct for some of the problems that occurred in 2016 in light of the 2016 results.

How we make decisions during a pandemic
Katherine Harmon Courage, Knowable Magazine
From mask wearing to physical distancing, individuals wield a lot of power in how the coronavirus outbreak plays out. Behavioral experts reveal what might be prompting people to act — or not.

Does Partisanship Affect Compliance with Government Recommendations?
Masha Krupenkin (Boston College), Political Behavior
I examine three cases of government vaccine recommendations – Smallpox in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, and measles in 2015.

How Much Trump Could Help (Or Harm) Down-Ballot Republicans In November
Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight
Looking ahead to November, the presidential race could decide more than just who the next president is. It could also determine which party controls the Senate or House or even a state’s legislature.

Trump brags about getting Republicans elected. Research suggests his endorsements cost 15 seats.
Philip Bump., Washington Post
Far from delivering seats for his party, analysis by Andrew O. Ballard and Michael Heseltine of American University and Hans J.G. Hassell of Florida State University indicates that Trump actually cost his party seats in the 2018 midterms, 11 in the House and four in the Senate.

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WHO’s to Blame? Coronavirus and the Politics of Blame Shifting
Isabella Alcañiz (U. of Maryland) & Timothy Hellwig (Indiana U.), Duck of Minerva
Will Trump’s attempt to scapegoat the WHO for the COVID-19 pandemic pay off? There are three reasons why Trump’s deflection of blame against an international organization like the WHO may work, at least in the short term.

Republican Presidential Primary Turnout: Trump vs Bush
J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
With higher turnout, 2020's primary electorate looks familiar

Six Scenarios for Confusion in Counting the 2020 Ballots: Not Just Scary Campfire Stories Any More
Louis Jacobson, Cook Political Report
Earlier this month, some 30 political scientists met virtually for a public webinar and discussion of outlandish, yet hardly implausible, scenarios of how the 2020 presidential election could devolve into chaos.

Does Trump Really Have Unique Appeal Among Working-Class Whites?
FiveThirtyEight podcast
The team discusses comments former Vice President Joe Biden made during a conversation about black voters, and also talks through the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.

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