October 3, 2022
GOP Leads On Image, Handling Terrorism, Nation's Prosperity Megan Brenan, Gallup At a time when Americans are worried about inflation and the nation's economy in general, the public sees the Republican Party as better able to keep the country prosperous, by a 10-point margin. The 51% of U.S. adults who believe the GOP is the better choice ties the highest on record for the party.
Americans worried midterms could bring divided government, gridlock Ipsos With less than six weeks until the 2022 midterm elections, a new Axios/Ipsos poll finds that a slim majority of Americans are worried about divided government and split control of Congress after November. Just under half are concerned about Democrats keeping control of Congress or Republicans winning control of both chambers. GOP cuts into Democrats’ lead among Latino voters, new poll shows Mark Murray, NBC News 51% approve of Biden’s job, but a majority disapproves of his handling of economy in a new NBC News/Telemundo survey ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
As the Latino vote’s power grows, urban and rural vote splits Dante Chinni, NBC News Democrats retain an edge with Latino voters, but the NBC News/Telemundo poll shows how the Latino vote looks different in some crucial ways. Maryland: Moore leads Cox in Gov. race by 2-to-1 margin, Post-UMD poll finds Scott Clement, Emily Guskin, Ovetta Wiggins & Erin Cox, Washington Post [via opiniontoday.com] Moore shored up support among Democrats and about a fifth of Republicans in a lopsided contest. Political scientist: ‘It’s hard to see how Cox can win.'
Nevada: Races for governor and U.S. Senate close, Republicans lead down ticket Nevada Independent Nevada’s top-of-the-ticket Democratic incumbents Gov. Steve Sisolak and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto narrowly trail their respective Republican opponents, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo and former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, according to a new Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights likely voters poll released Sunday. Los Angeles: Caruso cuts into Bass' lead in UC Berkeley/L.A. Times poll Benjamin Oreskes, Los Angeles Times Among all registered voters, billionaire businessman Rick Caruso is now behind Rep. Karen Bass by just 3 percentage points, 34%-31% in the race for mayor. That's down from a 12-point gap in August. Among likely voters, however, Rep. Karen Bass continues to lead by 15 points, 46%-31%, down from a 21-point lead a month ago. Democrats are lagging among Black voters, and that could cost them in November Harry Enten, CNN Black voters put Biden over the top in a number of swing states – e.g., Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All of those states have competitive gubernatorial and/or Senate races this year. Looking at the national polling, it seems possible that Democrats might not be able to count on nearly as much support from Black voters as they have in previous elections. Alaska’s Special House Race Stunned America. Here’s What November Could Bring. Ben Jacobs, Politico Magazine A conversation with a leading pollster in Alaska about the state's bold, experimental politics, and what they mean for the rest of the country. Ticket-splitting voters were going extinct. Now they may decide 2022's biggest races. Sahil Kapur, Allan Smith & Jonathan Allen, NBC News Nowhere is the dynamic clearer than in Pennsylvania, though there are signs voters favor both a Republican and a Democrat in swing states from Georgia to New Hampshire to Ohio. The coming power shift Josh Kraushaar, Axios Yes, Democrats' fortunes have improved, but the most likely outcome of the midterm elections is still a shift in power to the Republicans — and bigger headaches for President Biden over the next two years. Nevada Democrats see signs of nightmare scenario: Latino voters staying home Natasha Korecki, NBC News Nevada Democrats have held up their state as a national testing ground for how to win Latino voters in 2024. But with only 37 days until the midterm elections, there are warning signs: At the doors, on the phones and on the streets, Latinos are threatening to stay home. And that is despite the presence of the first-ever Latina elected to the U.S. Senate, Catherine Cortez Masto, at the top of the ballot. GOP sees path to Senate majority via Nevada and Georgia amid spending boost Isaac Arnsdorf, Michael Scherer, Liz Goodwin & Hannah Knowles, Washington Post Republicans are catching up in money and polls during the final weeks of the midterm campaign. Democrats' new Senate struggles Josh Kraushaar, Axios Democrats are facing fresh problems in two pivotal Senate battlegrounds in which their nominees are facing attacks for being too progressive. Democrats worry polls showing them as Senate favorites are wrong Alexander Bolton, The Hill Political handicappers are labeling Senate Democrats as the favorites to keep their majority, but Democratic senators themselves are worried the polls may be flawed in their favor just as they were in 2016 and 2020. Democracy Moneyball, 2022 Edition Sam Wang, Sam’s Newsletter Politics is a game of active participation. If you feel passionate about a candidate, a party, or an issue, you can do the equivalent of run onto the playing field! You can go door-to-door or donate money, you can work for a campaign, and you can even run for office yourself. And in the long term, you can work to change the rules of the game. But between now and November, where should you put your efforts? Elections everywhere are essential, of course. But some elections are more pivotal than others.
The disapproval derby: Biden Democrats vs. Supreme Court Republicans E.J. Dionne Jr., Washington Post In this midterm, two parties count as incumbents: the Democrats who control the White House and Congress, and the Republicans who control the Supreme Court. John Roberts is the chief. But it’s Clarence Thomas’s court James Romoser, National Journal Long considered an outlier on the Court’s right flank, Thomas is now the intellectual leader of a conservative transformation that the six Republican-appointed justices are ushering into American law. They Legitimized the Myth of a Stolen Election — and Reaped the Rewards Steve Eder, David D. Kirkpatrick & Mike McIntire, New York Times On the day the Capitol was attacked, 139 Republicans in the House voted to dispute the Electoral College count. This is how they got there.
Apocalypse now: Democrats embrace a dark midterm message Yasmeen Abutaleb, Washington Post Biden and the Democrats planned to run mostly on their accomplishments. But warnings of a Republican dystopia are becoming a bigger part of their message. Excess Death Rates for Republicans and Democrats During the COVID-19 Pandemic Jacob Wallace, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Jason L. Schwartz (Yale), National Bureau of Economic Research Political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for COVID-19, amid evidence that Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 death rates than Democrat-leaning counties and evidence of a link between political party affiliation and vaccination views. This study constructs an individual-level dataset with political affiliation and excess death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic via a linkage of 2017 voter registration in Ohio and Florida to mortality data from 2018 to 2021.
How to Run Surveys: A Guide to Creating Your Own Identifying Variation and Revealing the Invisible Stefanie Stantcheva (Harvard), National Bureau of Economic Research This paper offers guidance on the complete survey process, from the design of the questions and experiments to the recruitment of respondents and the collection of data to the analysis of survey responses. Four tips for getting smarter about the polls G. Elliott Morris, Democracy by the Numbers Plus, a brief history of survey methodology Election Forecasts Are NOT Polls But Are Valuable Poll Hub podcast, Marist Institute for Public Opinion Our battleground state polling continues, as we take a look at Arizona and Pennsylvania. Then, Dan Rosenheck from The Economist talks about the difference between election polls and election forecasts (rain helps explain it), and what his forecasting model says about the 2022 midterms. The polls and polling with Anna Greenberg Words Matter Podcast Norm Ornstein and Kavita Patel talk with Anna Greenberg of GQR about the polls headed into the midterms and the broader conversation around the value of public polling in our extremely partisan environment. A Conversation With Lance Tarrance, GOP Polling Icon Pro Politics podcast with Zac McCrary Lance Tarrance is one of the founding fathers of modern political polling. In this conversation, he talks about what drew him into the world of GOP politics, an inflection point working at the US Census Bureau, going to work for Ronald Reagan’s pollster, then opening up his own firm, The Tarrance Group. Tweets of Note
So people are asking... where did the 2nd place votes for US Congress go in the survey we just did? And how prevalent was "bullet voting", i.e. people not picking anyone 2nd (or 3rd or 4th)? Let's look at each of the four candidates and see who their supporters chose 2nd... 🧵
Are you joining us on Monday? will deliver the keynote on the current challenges journalists face covering elections. Then we'll host an all star panel with , , , & . Register: