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Few report personally benefitting from the Inflation Reduction Act AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research Sixty-seven percent of adults believe large businesses and corporations, oil and gas companies, and developed or industrialized countries outside the U.S. are not doing enough to address climate change.
Climate change concerns grow, but few think Biden’s climate law will help, AP-NORC poll finds Alexa St. John & Linley Sanders, Associated Press A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that 45% of adults in the United States say they have become more concerned about climate change over the past year, including roughly 6 in 10 Democrats and one-quarter of Republicans. Most within AAPI communities are concerned about climate change and support policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research Most AAPI adults have experienced some form of extreme weather in the past 5 years (79%), and 67% say extreme weather has influenced their views on climate change. Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Trump's slim lead over Biden evaporates as 1st criminal trial gets underway Andrew Romano, Yahoo News The presumptive Republican and Democratic nominees are now tied at 44% heading into the general election.
Harvard Youth Poll Institute of Politics, Harvard Kennedy School Among young Americans under 30, President Biden leads former President Trump by eight percentage points; among likely voters, Biden's lead expands to 19 points. Support for a permanent ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war is 5-to-1 in favor; majorities of young Americans sympathize with the Israeli and the Palestinian people. Most young Americans believe there's a crisis at the Southern border; at the same time, youth believe immigrants improve America's culture. Only 9% of young Americans say the country is headed in the right direction; economic concerns, along with reproductive freedom, continue to be top of mind for young voters.
Cannabis Use Greatest Among Lower-Income and Less Educated Dan Witters, Gallup Nine percent of U.S. adults report that they use cannabis regularly, defined as at least 10 days of consumption per month. Regular usage differs by education and income, with the highest rates seen among those with a high school education or less (13%) and those living in households earning less than $24,000 per year (16%).
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Advancing Racial Equity in U.S. Health Care Commonwealth Fund This report evaluates disparities in health and health care across racial and ethnic groups, both within states and between U.S. states. We collected data for 25 indicators of health system performance, specifically focusing on health outcomes, access to health care, and quality and use of health care services for Black, white, Hispanic, American Indian and Alaska Native, and Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander populations. How Happy Is Gen Z? Jon Clifton & Zach Hrynowski, Gallup New research from the Gallup-Walton Family Foundation Voices of Gen Z study, developed with happiness expert Arthur C. Brooks, offers more insight into how happy U.S. young people are and suggests ways to increase their happiness. Three in Five Constituents Support Congress Taking Action to Federally Protect Medication Abortion and IVF Rachael Russell, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report contains polling data on how Americans in the closely-divided battleground House districts view the recent Alabama Supreme Court decision impacting IVF, including the most concerning outcomes from the decision and support for Congress federally protecting both medication abortion and IVF. Wisconsin: Very close presidential, U.S. Senate races Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 51% of registered voters and Democratic President Joe Biden by 49%. Among likely voters also, Trump is the choice of 51% and Biden of 49%. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 52% and Republican challenger Eric Hovde by 47% among registered voters. Among likely voters, the race is a tie, with 50% for both Baldwin and Hovde. Maryland: Lagging support for Biden, Trump underscores lack of enthusiasm Sam Janesch, Baltimore Sun Three out of every four Democrats and Republicans surveyed in a new Maryland poll support their party’s presumptive nominee for president, underscoring a lack of enthusiasm for both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump as they appear headed toward a rematch this November, according to the poll for The Baltimore Sun, the University of Baltimore and FOX45. Biden, Trump, and the 4 categories of white votes John J. DiIulio, Jr., Brookings Institution Nobody can doubt that white working-class voters, defined simply as white voters without a college degree, are a key to Trump’s past, present, and pending electoral fortunes. As Civil Rights Era Fades From Memory, Generation Gap Divides Black Voters Maya King, New York Times Many older Black voters see moral and political reasons to vote. Younger Black voters feel far less motivated to cast a ballot for Democrats or even at all. Biden’s handling of Gaza shakes his support in the Black community Cleve R. Wootson Jr., Washington Post Some Black activists want voters to reject Biden over his Gaza policy. Others see Trump as a far bigger threat. The Trump GOP’s inverted perception of crime in America Philip Bump, Washington Post Fear-driven rhetoric about immigrants is belied by data, while assertions of Donald Trump’s innocence conflict with the evidence. Liberals Are Trying to Make Trump’s Age an Issue. It Won’t Work. Alex Shephard, New Republic Biden’s defenders can’t win this debate—and they should be attacking Trump’s more obvious vulnerabilities anyway. Partisans more likely to see O.J. Simpson favorably than the other candidate Philip Bump, Washington Post Meanwhile, about 1 in 10 supporters of both President Biden and Donald Trump views their own candidate unfavorably.
Where Trump’s Primary Showing Was (And Wasn’t) Especially Strong J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball By comparing how Trump did in each county to how he did overall in each state, we can get a better idea of how his coalition is shaping up. Geographically, Trump beat his statewide primary share in a majority of counties in most states. Meanwhile, and not surprisingly, Trump tended to struggle in areas that are Democratic, or blue-trending, in general elections, although there were some exceptions. Will Robert F. Kennedy be a spoiler in the presidential race? Elaine Kamarck & Elizabeth Smith, Brookings Institution Every time Kennedy gets on a ballot in a swing state, he comes closer and closer to becoming a spoiler in 2024, and so far, his organization has shown the ability to raise money and meet filing deadlines. Abortion and the 2024 election: There is no easy way out for Republicans Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Institution The expectation is that at least some, if not most, of the pro-choice voters likely to be mobilized by the abortion issue will help Democrats up and down the ballot. Be a Wary Reader in the 2024 Election Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Disinformation from Russia and China is evolving and has even spread to Capitol Hill. ‘Unholy alliance’: Congress needs to act as global crises threaten West David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call It’s been more than 20 years since 9/11, but the threats to our national security have only expanded. Rating Changes: Arizona Senate and AZ-6 Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball We’re making a couple of rating changes today, both in Arizona. The state’s open-seat Senate race goes from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, and Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. The two new developments that pushed us to make these changes are the increased importance of abortion rights in the state following a blockbuster state court decision last week as well as recent Democratic fundraising strength in both races.
Steve Garvey: Not the next Jim Bunning Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call California Senate candidate had a good baseball career, but he's no Hall-of-Famer It’s time to retire the laziest cliché in election polling W. Joseph Campbell, The Hill Opinion polling has no lazier cliché than “snapshot in time.” The aphorism is intended to suggest impermanence — that polls taken weeks or months before an election have limited predictive value. The phrase has been repeatedly invoked as the 2024 presidential election race has unfolded. It will be heard many times before the campaign ends. Who Is Going to Win the Presidential Election? Want to Bet? Nick Fortuna, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The 2024 election is ripe for betting markets. PredictIt, a political-futures website, lets users wager on presidential outcomes. Poll: Majority of Americans Prefer Sleeping Trump to Conscious Version The Borowitz Report In a development that an aide to the presumptive GOP nominee called “the best news this campaign has gotten in quite some time,” a new poll shows that a majority of likely voters “vastly prefer” Donald J. Trump when he is asleep to when he is awake.
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The Youngest Voters and the Oldest President The Run-Up Polling data shows that President Biden’s approval rating has tanked among young Americans. Polls also show that he continues to be hounded by the perception that he is too old for the job. And young activists are creating a public-relations nightmare for the campaign as they protest for more direct action on climate change and demand a permanent cease-fire in Gaza. In this episode, we speak to young voters. We also talk with two leaders of Democratic groups that are focused on young people: Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, the executive director of NextGen America, which just conducted a poll of young voters, and Santiago Mayer, the founder and executive director of Voters of Tomorrow.
Black Voters’ Views on Biden Pod Save America Tommy is joined by Terrance Woodbury, Democratic strategist and pollster, to talk about President Biden's standing with young Black men and other groups he'll need to win the White House a second time. Plus, highlights from the opening days of Trump's criminal trial in New York, Biden's promise to tax the rich, and what new data says about the influence of third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West.
Will Trump Get the Latino Vote? John Leguizamo Hopes to God No The Daily Show John Leguizamo is fired up about the Latino vote and their surprising sway toward Donald Trump, despite Biden’s outreach and policies on immigration. In the latest In My Opinion, he breaks down the priority issues of inflation, and Trump’s deceptions on how much he truly cares about the Latino community.
