June 27, 2022
CBS News poll: Half say Trump tried to stay in office through illegal means, should be charged with crimes CBS News Most Americans continue to feel U.S. democracy is threatened, and the Jan. 6 hearings offer a window into their different reasons why. From what they've seen of the hearings thus far, half the country thinks former President Donald Trump planned to remain in office through unconstitutional and illegal activities. Half think that he should, in turn, be charged with crimes, and that the attack on the Capitol was an "insurrection."
CBS News poll: Americans react to overturning of Roe v. Wade — most disapprove, call it step backward CBS News The American public is rendering its initial judgment on the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and most disapprove of the ruling, including two-thirds of women who disapprove. By more than a 20-point margin, Americans call it a step backward rather than forward for America. And women, by more than three to one, think the ruling will make women's lives worse rather than better.
Focus Group Report: Pro-Choice Democrats and Republicans on Abortion Navigator Research Among those who are pro-choice, abortion is a highly salient issue. Democrats are more engaged and motivated on abortion, while some pro-choice Republicans may not vote in November. We have more work to do to explain codifying Roe, while term limits receive wide support. Many states with antiabortion laws have pro-choice majorities Jake Grumbach (U. of Washington) & Christopher Warshaw (George Washington U.), Monkey Cage [via opiniontoday.com] Our analysis of polling data suggests that more Americans will live under an abortion policy that is out of step with their preferences, with consequences for democratic representation. This is largely because clear majorities of citizens in purple states that are likely to ban abortion — like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Iowa — support abortion rights, as our figure shows.
Roe ruling shows complex relationship between court, public Hannah Fingerhut, Associated Press The Supreme Court ruling to overturn its 1973 Roe v. Wade decision is unpopular with a majority of Americans — but did that matter? The relationship between the public and the judiciary has been studied and debated by legal and political scholars. The short answer: it’s complicated. There’s evidence that the public has an indirect role in the judiciary, but that might be changing. A historically unpopular Supreme Court made a historically unpopular decision Harry Enten, CNN The ruling to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision may have major electoral consequences in this year’s midterm elections. But the court’s actions in this case may do something more than just affect the elections this year. The Supreme Court’s own reputation is at stake, and the decision to get rid of Roe v. Wade and to upset the status quo comes at a very sensitive time for the justices in a different court: the one of public opinion. ‘The dog that caught the car’: Republicans brace for the impact of reversing Roe David Siders, Politico Everything was going right for Republicans in the midterm campaign. Then the Supreme Court decision came down. ‘Things Will Be Fine’ GOP insiders doubt overturning Roe v. Wade will haunt them in the midterms. Ben Jacobs, New York Magazine In conversations with over a half-dozen Republican insiders, who were granted anonymity to discuss the political ramifications frankly, there was a lingering sense of skepticism that abortion would still be a major issue in November and a belief that, even if it is, it might actually redound to the benefit of the GOP. Battleground Republicans squeezed hardest on abortion after Roe falls Sarah Ferris & Ally Mutnick, Politico Democrats insist the Supreme Court ruling will hurt them in the suburbs. But few of the GOP's most vulnerable are budging — or talking. End of Roe v. Wade may not hurt Republicans in Congress, but it could sting them in the states Harry Enten, CNN The Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade in arguably its biggest decision in at least a decade. A look at the political landscape and recent surveys reveals that the midterm impact, while not totally clear, may not be as big as people think. Any effects on November’s midterm elections are more likely to be felt at the state level than in the race for Congress. Democrats seize on abortion ruling in midterms as Republicans tread carefully Annie Linskey & Colby Itkowitz, Washington Post The contrasting reactions reflect the broader midterm calculations of each party ahead of the November elections Democrats still have this glimmer of hope for the midterm elections John Harwood, CNN President Joe Biden can’t avoid a bad midterm election. But with a boost last week from the US Supreme Court, he still might avoid the worst. How Did Roe End? In a Long Red Wave, Then All of a Sudden. Kate Zernike, New York Times [via opiniontoday.com] The downfall of the constitutional right to abortion began 12 years ago, after Republicans swept state house elections and passed hundreds of restrictions.
Supreme Court Throws Abortion to an Unlevel State Playing Field Jonathan Weisman & Jazmine Ulloa, New York Times The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade shifted the abortion fight to state legislatures, where gerrymandering has given Republicans an advantage. Striking down New York gun law could set a trend Dante Chinni, NBC News This week the Supreme Court struck down a New York State law that placed limits on who can get a permit to carry a gun in public. The 6-3 ruling immediately raised questions about similar laws in other states, but in a broader sense, it may have opened the door to other gun rules around the country — which could also be challenged in court.
More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems Steve Peoples & Aaron Kessler, Associated Press A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans. GOP strategist reveals a big change in Trump voters during her focus groups Reliable Sources, CNN Republican strategist, Sarah Longwell, shares the findings of her focus group on Donald Trump voters since the start of the January 6 House Select Committee hearings. Tweets of Note
Public opinion moves leftward under Rep presidents & rightward under Dem presidents. But it’s against policy, not generic anti-incumbent sentiment. You can tell when opinion still moves against new policy that is not in president’s direction, like now:
Friends don’t let friends use this broken question format. Much better approach here from and alexandercoppock.com/subpages/count… https://t.co/3Cq21wMyYi
Scott MacFarlane @MacFarlaneNewsNew @CBSNews polling shows 50 percent of Democrats respond they're more likely to vote after abortion ruling from Supreme Court https://t.co/OW2N3hE01e