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Harris and Trump are tied, poll finds. Here’s why strategists say that’s good for Democrats Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour Nearly all Americans – 87 percent – think President Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid was the right thing to do, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. That view crossed ideological, generational and partisan lines, a strong note of unity in a din of national division. If the election were held today, 46 percent of voters would back Trump, while 45 percent of U.S. registered voters would support Harris, falling well within the margin of error.
Who should be Harris’ VP? Here’s what Democratic voters say Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour As Harris surpasses the number of pledged delegates she’ll need in order to secure the Democratic nomination, attention has also turned to Harris’ running mate. According to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, one of Democrats’ top choices is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has already vowed to stay in her home state.
Presidential race hits a reset with Harris vs. Trump Domenico Montanaro, NPR News The 2024 presidential campaign has hit a reset with more voters moving into the undecided camp now that Kamala Harris is potentially the Democratic nominee, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds. Harris and former President Donald Trump are statistically tied, but 1 in 5 independents, including almost 3 in 10 independent women, now say they are undecided. So these next few weeks will be vital for Harris to reintroduce herself before views solidify. Trump and Harris Competitive Nationally; Most Dems Say Harris Should be Nominee Marist Institute for Public Opinion In the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are competitive among the national electorate. In a multicandidate field which includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Chase Oliver, Trump and Harris tie. Democrats have fallen in line behind Harris with more than three in four saying Harris should be their party’s nominee. New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Kamala Harris has a huge head start for the Democratic nomination — and the strongest numbers against Trump Andrew Romano, Yahoo News Vice President Kamala Harris is launching her last-minute campaign for the 2024 Democratic nomination with a huge head start over other would-be candidates, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll — and the strongest head-to-head numbers against former President Donald Trump.
Most Americans support Biden leaving the race, Democrats rally behind Harris Ipsos The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted immediately after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor, shows that if Harris were to be the Democratic nominee, the race between her and Republican nominee Donald Trump would be too close to call.
Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Jason Lange, Reuters Vice President Kamala Harris opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and passed the torch to her, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. That compares with a marginal two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in last week's poll before his Sunday exit from the race. Before Biden's exit, Harris ran slightly ahead of him in hypothetical Trump matchup Jennifer De Pinto & Kabir Khanna, CBS News Just before President Biden stepped aside as the Democratic Party's nominee, a CBS News poll tested a hypothetical match-up between GOP nominee and former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris trailed Trump by three points in the vote preferences of likely voters, including leaners (those who didn't pick them first but leaned toward one of them) — that's slightly narrower than the five-point margin by which Mr. Biden trailed the former president.
Biden's Approval Rating Hit New Low Before Exit From Race Megan Brenan, Gallup In a Gallup poll conducted almost entirely before he announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race on Sunday, President Joe Biden received a 36% job approval rating from the American people, his lowest to date by one percentage point. The majority of Americans, 58%, continued to disapprove of Biden’s job.
Joe Biden, Public Opinion and His Withdrawal From the 2024 Race Jocelyn Kiley & Carroll Doherty, Pew Research Center Joe Biden’s extraordinary decision to not pursue the Democratic nomination for president has upended the 2024 presidential race, with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as a strong favorite for the Democratic nomination. Here are some of the key public opinion dynamics around Biden’s choice. What key-state voters think about Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden Dan Balz, Scott Clement & Emily Guskin, Washington Post The Post and GMU’s Schar School asked 152 voters in key states what they think about Harris potentially becoming the Democratic Party’s nominee for president. Democratic Women Voters See Vice President Harris As Trusted Messenger on Abortion Policy Ashley Kirzinger, Isabelle Valdes & Liz Hamel, KFF The Survey of Women Voters, fielded before President Biden’s withdrawal, finds that about eight in ten (82%) Democratic and Democratic-leaning women voters say they trust V.P. Harris to speak about abortion policy – including half (49%) who say they trust her “a lot” to speak on this issue.
Americans’ Extreme Weather Policy Views and Personal Experiences Pew Research Center The year 2023 brought record-breaking billion-dollar weather disasters, which took a tremendous financial and personal toll on Americans nationwide. As extreme weather continues to make headlines, a new Pew Research Center survey asks Americans what policies they support to address weather-related damage. We also ask people who recently lived through extreme weather events if they think climate change contributed to them, and how their lives were affected.
‘The upside for Harris is huge’: Democratic poll finds Kamala needs to define her brand quickly David Weigel, Semafor A Democratic pollster is urging Vice President Kamala Harris to counteract impressions that she’s too liberal or too soft on immigration, after a snap poll identified some of her biggest potential vulnerabilities. “Voters have a very limited perception of Harris: liberal, prosecutor,” said Blueprint lead pollster Evan Roth Smith, who surveyed 1537 registered voters on July 21 and 22.
How Kamala Harris Changes the Race Nate Cohn, New York Times In some ways, the new matchup figures to be strangely familiar. What to expect from polls in the next few weeks Natalie Jackson, (GQR Research), National Journal [unlocked] Polls in the next few weeks will not tell us what is going to happen in the fall, and it will be important to remember that the renewed energy—and fundraising—among Democrats may not necessarily result in a suddenly changed race. Here are a few reminders of how to think about polls in the next few weeks. What Polling Tells Us About a Kamala Harris Candidacy Kristen Soltis Anderson (Echelon Insights), New York Times Sorting out whether she’s an upgrade for Democrats. THE HARRIS HONEYMOON TO: TEAM TRUMP / FROM: TONY FABRIZIO Many of you have heard me refer to the upcoming “Harris Honeymoon” that I expect to see in the public polling over the next couple of weeks. As I’ve explained, the honeymoon will be a manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the MSM. The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term. That means we will start to see public polling – particularly national public polls – where Harris is gaining on or even leading President Trump. See How Biden Lost Support in the Polls Before He Dropped Out Albert Sun, New York Times President Biden ended his re-election campaign on Sunday after a post-debate slump in national and swing-state polls. In less than four weeks, his position had deteriorated in three Rust Belt states crucial to his re-election, as former President Donald J. Trump’s once narrow polling leads grew wider. Post-Biden: Harris, the Delegates, the Map, the VP, and More Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Our Electoral College ratings are going to remain the same for the time being. Donald Trump is closer to 270 electoral votes in those ratings than Harris is, but it’s worth taking some time to let things settle. Harris addresses the concerns voters had with Biden’s age, but voters also seemed to view Biden as being more liberal than they did four years ago. Harris may have a similar challenge.
How Kamala Harris Locked Up the Nomination in Two Days Ken Thomas & Lindsay Wise, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The vice president moved quickly after Biden’s exit to sew up delegates’ support, as potential challengers backed her instead Democratic Delegates See Harris as the Strongest Candidate Against Trump Adam Nagourney, Charlie Smart & Christine Zhang, New York Times With Vice President Kamala Harris locking up support, interviews with Democratic National Committee delegates indicated there was no consensus over whom she should pick as a running mate.
Harris’ campaign could draw undecided voters off the fence — in both directions Steve Kornacki, NBC News Recent polls show a higher share of voters making up their minds between the two major candidates in a Harris-Trump matchup than a Biden-Trump contest. Harris' challenge ahead: Winning over swing voters Mark Murray, NBC News NBC News polling before Biden’s exit showed the vice president struggling with her personal numbers among independent and persuadable voters. The Kamala Gamble Michael Baharaeen, The Liberal Patriot Joe Biden had serious deficits as a candidate, but his likeliest successor has some, too. It was always Harris Patrick Ruffini, The Intersection Many Substack scribes have argued that Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro may be more electable candidates on paper, but this is largely beside the point. In a compressed time window, there is no way for a candidate a third of the country doesn’t even know to make the case to delegates that they’re more campaign-ready than the sitting VP. Actually, Harris Is Good At Politics Jonathan Bernstein, Good Politics/Bad Politics Presidential general election outcomes are about a lot of things beyond candidate skills. To the extent political skills matter, however, the evidence is that Kamala Harris is extremely capable, and perhaps a good deal better than that. Kamala Harris May Force a Reckoning Thomas Zimmer, Democracy Americana Harris emerged as VP in the summer of 2020 when it seemed the country might finally deal with its defining demons. But as the reactionary counter-mobilization triumphed, she was sidelined. Until now. Yes, ‘Kamala is a cop.’ This time, it could help her win an election. Catherine Rampell, Washington Post Harris’s prosecutorial background could be a huge asset. How Kamala Harris Can Win and Make History Hillary Rodham Clinton, New York Times I’ve been called a witch, a “nasty woman” and much worse. Harris will face unique additional challenges. But we shouldn’t be afraid. How Harris can use her VP search to define herself Chuck Todd, NBC News A methodical search could help reintroduce Harris to the country and allow voters — particularly those in the skeptical middle — to take a measure of her. Kamala Harris’s Diversity Hire Elaine Godfrey, The Atlantic For the first time in a long while, Democrats seem fine expressing the idea that what the presidential ticket really needs is a white guy. The good news for Democrats is that America has been cranking out white male politicians for several hundred years. If Harris is looking for a conventional running mate, she has an embarrassment of riches. Kamala Harris’s Rocky Road to Victory William A. Galston, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The vice president is trailing Trump. To beat him, she’ll need a clear plan of action. Kamala Harris, the Candidate Doreen St. Félix, The New Yorker The Vice-President, who is set to win the Democratic nomination, has graduated from limbo. Trump and Vance Are More Radical Together Than Alone Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times Trump’s selection of Vance reflects his determination to focus on incorporating middle- and lower-income, predominantly but not exclusively white men and women who often did not graduate from college, into the base of the Republican Party. To do so, Trump and Vance are taking their side on matters ranging from diversity to abortion to immigration to trade policy, promising protection from pretty much everything they don’t like about America today. Trump’s Favorite Lies, Puffery and Flights of Fancy, Up Against the Data Steven Rattner, New York Times Now that the uncertainty around Mr. Biden’s candidacy has been resolved, the campaign will begin anew. With Mr. Trump sure to ratchet up his falsehood-laden rhetoric, it’s a good time to review his recent record of dishonesty. American Fury Adrienne LaFrance, The Atlantic These are poisonous days in our nation. It is reasonable to worry that the attempt on Trump’s life represents not the end of a cycle of violence, but an escalation in an era that has already seen a congresswoman shot in a supermarket parking lot, a congressman shot while playing baseball, and the U.S. Capitol stormed by insurrectionists. The only way to minimize further bloodshed is to choose leaders at every level of society who reject political violence unconditionally, in word and in deed. Walter Shapiro, Political Columnist With a Contrarian Streak, Dies at 77 Sam Roberts, New York Times He brought to his writing a sharp sense of humor, honed in stand-up comedy clubs, and never pulled punches even though he was an unabashed Democrat.
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PLAYLIST
Dead Heat: Kamala Harris Boosts Dems' Odds In Our New Poll The NPR Politics Podcast In a speech at her campaign headquarters, Vice President Harris highlighted her background as a prosecutor and will work to unite the party and earn the nomination. This episode: voting correspondent Ashley Lopez, White House correspondent Ashley Lopez, and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.
Doug Sosnik on Harris v. Trump: Why the Next Month Matters Most Conversations with Bill Kristol The withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race three weeks after his disastrous debate performance, followed by the swift decision by Democrats to select Kamala Harris as the presumptive nominee, leaves us in uncharted waters. According to veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, the broad contours of the 2024 election remain: “It’s a narrowly divided country. It’s a fairly even race. But Trump has the advantage in an Electoral College system that [today] favors Republicans.” Yet this election has been like no other.
Sam Stein and Ron Brownstein: Now We're Talking The Bulwark Podcast We may have been conditioned to just accept candidates who share their meandering thoughts or end sentences with 'anyway.' But Kamala Harris is delivering a big upgrade, and showing how a good political speech gets done. Meanwhile, what would Kamala's winning coalition—and her path to 270—look like? Plus, Trump may be having some buyer's remorse over JD Vance. Ron Brownstein and Sam Stein join Tim Miller.
Kamalat (with John Heilemann) Hacks On Tap This week, Axe and Murphy were joined by expert Hackeroo and high-velocity pundit, John Heilemann. Because clearly, there's just not enough breaking news happening in the world. The Hacks salute Joe Biden’s decision, and dive into the next steps of the Kamala Harris presidential campaign: Inheriting the Biden operation, coming out with new messaging and ads, reversing the Biden age issue, and who could be the Vice President’s Vice President? The Hacks also cover “brat,” campaign attack ads, inflation, the border, Dobbs, and so much more!
What polls say about a Trump-Harris matchup CBS News Now that President Biden is out of the 2024 race, what do the numbers say about a Trump-Harris matchup? CBS News executive director of elections and surveys Anthony Salvanto looks at the latest polling. Then, Molly Ball, senior political correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, and Sabrina Rodriguez, national politics reporter for The Washington Post, join with analysis.
