Opinion Today
opiniontoday.substack.com
In Tight Presidential Race, Voters Are Broadly Critical of Both Biden and Trump Pew Research Center As the 2024 presidential race heats up, American voters face a similar set of choices as they did four years ago – and many are not happy about it. With the election still more than six months away, a new Pew Research Center survey finds that the presidential race is virtually tied: 49% of registered voters favor Donald Trump or lean toward voting for him, while 48% support or lean toward Joe Biden. • 69% of voters say “it really matters who wins” the presidential election • How important is it for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner? • Biden’s job approval ticks up • Trump’s criminal charges related to the 2020 election
Biden 46%, Trump 46%; Support For Legal Abortion Reaches All-Time High Quinnipiac University Poll If the election for president were being held today, the race would be a dead heat between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with each candidate receiving 46 percent support. Voters were asked about the criminal trial against Trump in connection with charges of falsifying business records, including a hush money payment to an adult film actress. Forty-six percent of voters believe Trump did something illegal, while 27 percent believe he did something unethical but nothing illegal, and 18 percent believe he did not do anything wrong. • Voters give President Biden a negative 35 - 61 percent job approval rating. • 66 percent think abortion should be legal in either all cases or most cases, while 27 percent of voters think abortion should be illegal in either most cases or all cases. • Voters are divided on the U.S. sending more military aid to Israel for their efforts in the war with Hamas, as 46 percent support it, while 44 percent oppose it. • Voters 53 - 40 percent support the U.S. sending more military aid to Ukraine for their efforts in the war with Russia. UNF national poll: Trump up by two among likely voters Public Opinion Research Lab, University of North Florida Forty-seven percent said they would vote for Trump, with 45% indicating a vote for Biden, 4% said another candidate, and 2% said they wouldn’t vote. Three percent said they don’t know or refused to answer. NBC News poll: One in 4 voters could change their minds on presidential race Bridget Bowman, NBC News The voters most likely to say their minds could change are also much more likely to select a third-party candidate at the moment.
Biden on track for a knife-edge win against Trump Stack Data Strategy This post summarises the results of Stack’s latest MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) modelling for the presidential election. We project that Biden would win 287 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 251. Although Biden would once again comfortably win the popular vote against Trump, his path to victory in the Electoral College currently hinges on razor-thin majorities in a handful of key battleground states.
Biden’s Gains Against Trump Vanish on Deep Economic Pessimism, Poll Shows Gregory Korte, Bloomberg [via Yahoo] President Biden’s recent polling bump in key battleground states has mostly evaporated as a deep current of pessimism about the trajectory of the US economy hurts his standing with voters. The Biden campaign is counting on social issues, especially abortion, to help energize Democrats.
Biden Takes Lead from Trump in Michigan, but Not Other Swing States Eli Yokley, Morning Consult Trump is maintaining his edge over Biden across much of the swing-state map, posting his strongest advantages yet over the incumbent in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. He also leads in Wisconsin and, narrowly, in Pennsylvania, while Biden has an edge in Michigan for the first time. Voters in Arizona are more likely than ever before this election cycle to cite abortion as their No. 1 issue for the 2024 elections when forced to pick one following the state Supreme Court’s decision to uphold an 1864 law that makes abortion illegal in all cases except when the mother's life is at risk. Opinion Divided on Foreign Aid Package Monmouth University Polling Institute Public opinion is divided on the recently passed foreign aid package. Support registers a few points higher than opposition, while 1 in 5 have no opinion. The Monmouth University Poll finds that passage of this legislation has not had a sizable impact on opinion of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s job performance. Only 1 in 5 want to replace him. Americans tend to think Democrats are more successful than Republicans at passing legislation, while President Biden’s job rating continues to tick up after bottoming out at the end of last year.
If you haven’t already done so, become a paid subscriber and receive the FULL Opinion Today briefing first thing each morning, Monday-Friday, plus an expanded edition on weekends.
How Americans feel about Artificial intelligence Jamie Ballard, YouGov When asked about how Artificial intelligence has already impacted specific sectors, 50% of Americans say AI has had a very or somewhat negative impact on politics. 44% think it has had a negative impact on the media industry. Industries in which Americans believe AI has had a more positive than negative impact include manufacturing (40% say it’s had a positive impact, 20% say it’s had a negative impact), health care (39% positive; 23% negative), and transportation (32% positive, 21% negative).
Most Americans think U.S. K-12 STEM education isn’t above average, but test results paint a mixed picture Brian Kennedy, Pew Research Center Most Americans believe K-12 STEM education in the United States is either average or below average compared with other wealthy nations, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. Recent global standardized test scores show that students in the U.S. are, in fact, lagging behind their peers in other wealthy nations when it comes to math. But America’s students are doing better than average in science compared with pupils in these other countries. 40 Policies That Will Define the 2024 Election John Halpin, The Liberal Patriot Results of a comprehensive new poll of 4,038 registered voters from The Liberal Patriot and Blueprint conducted by YouGov. The 40 Policy Ideas That Will Define the 2024 Race Blueprint Blueprint and The Liberal Patriot released a poll that explores the major issues shaping the 2024 presidential election and where voters stand on 40 different policy ideas either proposed or implemented by President Biden or Donald Trump. AARP Financial Security Trends Survey AARP Sense of Financial Security Holds Steady, Optimism Up Trump Respects Women, Most Men Say Jess Bidgood, New York Times This month, The New York Times/Siena College poll asked voters how much they think former President Trump respects women: a lot, some, not much or not at all? A majority of men — 54 percent — said that Trump respects women either “a lot” or “some.” Just 31 percent of women saw things that way. What to Make of the ‘Zombie Vote’ Against Donald Trump Alex Lemonides & Christine Zhang, New York Times Even after Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican presidential primary, effectively handing the party’s nomination to former President Donald J. Trump, nearly 20 percent of G.O.P. primary voters have cast ballots for someone other than Mr. Trump. The Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday, where Ms. Haley won more than 16 percent, was just the latest example.
Protest votes in Pennsylvania primary loom over Trump, Biden in November Colby Itkowitz, Hannah Knowles & Scott Clement, Washington Post More than 150,000 registered Republicans voted for Nikki Haley in the primary, even as Trump was the clear victor in the GOP race. President Biden also faced votes against him in the Democratic race. Where Biden’s Primary Showing Was (And Wasn’t) Especially Strong J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball As with our recent examination of the Republican primary, President Biden—like former President Trump—has won most of his contests easily, but some areas stand out. The Upper Midwest has been an interesting region in the Democratic primary where Biden has held up better in rural areas than in urban core counties. In some “ancestrally Democratic” states that have closed primaries, there has been a small but clear protest vote against Biden. As usual, views of Trump guide views of his actions, not vice versa Philip Bump, Washington Post New polling shows that Republicans are much less likely to view the Manhattan trial as involving serious charges. Will voters wake up by Election Day? Chuck Todd, NBC News Low interest in the election is one of the alarming results in the latest NBC News poll. "Reverse Coattails" Won't Rescue Biden Nate Moore, The Liberal Patriot Across the battleground states, down-ballot Democrats are running well ahead of President Biden. This delta has been a defining electoral feature since the 2022 midterms, where congressional Democrats significantly outperformed expectations set by Biden’s poor approval rating. With the incumbent back on the ballot in 6 months, some Democratic strategists hypothesize that down-ballot strength will lift Biden to victory. In essence, a reverse of the traditional coattails effect. Trump vs. Biden Polls: Kennedy Now Threatens Both Candidates Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine Coping with Kennedy could become a game of three-dimensional chess between the Biden and Trump campaigns. Biden Was Right About Both Antisemitism and the Palestinians Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine President Biden has, at various times, expressed the following ideas: 1. Terrorist attacks on civilians are wrong. 2. Israel has a right to self-defense that is bounded by a requirement to minimize civilian casualties. 3. Bigotry against Jews, Muslims, or Arabs is categorically wrong. Now, one might object that, in praising Biden for these morally intuitive positions, I have set the bar too low. And it is a low bar indeed. But the pertinent thing is that Biden and his allies are the only faction in American politics that has managed to clear this low bar. Justice Can’t Wait Michael Podhorzer, Weekend Reading But Federalist Society justices do when it suits their purposes. Pecker’s Trump Trial Testimony Is a Lesson in Power Politics Timothy L. O'Brien, Bloomberg Opinion [unlocked] The former tabloid publisher wasn’t a journalist. He was a fixer. Pennsylvania: Primary Results Set Stage for Key Battleground Nathan L. Gonzales, Inside Elections With Pennsylvania’s primary in the books, there’s clarity for the general elections in the Keystone State. And with competitive races for the White House, Senate and House, Pennsylvania stands to play a key role in which party is in power next year. Notes on the State of Politics Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Today we’re looking at Pennsylvania’s primary results—and the finally finalized results of the top-two congressional primaries in California from last month. How Mike Johnson Is Taming Trump and His Party — Against All Odds Jonathan Martin, Politico Magazine At a crucial juncture, the speaker went from pandering to Trump to managing him and from challenging the Democrats to working with them. How Americans felt about campus protests against the Vietnam War Philip Bump, Washington Post After the Kent State massacre, most people sided with the National Guard.
PLAYLIST
Race between Biden and Trump tightens: Inside the latest NBC News poll The Chuck ToddCast Senior Political Editor Mark Murray joins Chuck to talk through the findings in the April 2024 NBC News poll, as former President Trump’s hush money trial begins in Manhattan.
Biden eyes Latino vote amid jump in Trump support CBS News President Biden and his reelection campaign clearly state they need Latino support this November. However, several polls in recent months have revealed an increasing number of Latino voters preferring former President Trump. CBS News political director Fin Gómez and Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha join to discuss more.
How a North Carolina community is confronting divisions, talking through its differences PBS NewsHour Issues such as inequality, gender identity and education have become the subjects of national debate, with the focus often on what elected leaders in Washington say and do about them. Yet many of these issues play out on the local level in communities with their own histories and challenges. Judy Woodruff traveled to one such community in North Carolina for her series, America at a Crossroads.
