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Opinion Today

May 19, 2022

May 19
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Opinion Today
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Nearly 7 In 10 Favor A Limit On How Long SCOTUS Justices Can Serve
Quinnipiac University Poll
With all eyes on the Supreme Court following the leak of a draft opinion regarding abortion, Americans support 69 - 27 percent limiting the number of years a Supreme Court Justice can serve on the Supreme Court, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll. A majority of Americans (63 percent) say the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics, while 32 percent say the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by the law.

Covid Concerns Remain Low; Few Want Return Of Mask Mandates
Monmouth University Polling Institute
Vaccine booster rates hit a wall; rejected by most Republicans
One in three Americans say that COVID-19 is over
Ipsos
Although cases are rising again across the U.S., neither behaviors nor risk perceptions have shifted for Americans since April. The latest wave of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index finds that one in three Americans say that COVID-19 is over, though perceptions vary drastically across party lines and by vaccination status.

Decreasing Support for Police Reform, Black Lives Matter Movement
University of Massachusetts Amherst
As the United States approaches the second anniversary of the killing of George Floyd, a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll finds across-the-board decreases in support for a number of police reform measures since an April 2021 UMass Poll asked about the topic. The poll also gauged respondents’ views regarding LGBT issues and education.

President Biden's approval rating is at 42% again this week
Ipsos
President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains stable at 42% on this week’s Ipsos’ Core Political. The economy (28%) continues to be the most important issue facing the country with 35% of Republicans, 27% of independents, and 22% of Democrats saying so.

Most Americans blame the opioid epidemic on pharmaceutical companies and illegal drug dealers
Taylor Orth, YouGov
A recent YouGov poll finds that three-fourths of Americans characterize opioid addiction as a serious problem in the United States. A majority also say that the number of people addicted to opioids in this country has increased over the past 10 years.

Voters More Likely Than Not to Say Twitter Should Restore Trump’s Account
Eli Yokley, Morning Consult
Most Americans say Twitter Inc. was right to ban Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, but more voters than not believe it is now time to restore the former president’s access to the platform that has proven to be both a gift and a curse to his political prospects.

Middle-Class Identification Steady in U.S.
Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup
About half of U.S. adults consider themselves members of the middle class, including 38% who identify as "middle class" and 14% as "upper-middle class." Most of the rest describe themselves as either "working class" (35%) or "lower class" (11%), with relatively few, 2%, identifying as "upper class."

Fox News Poll: Georgia’s GOP primary race for governor sees Kemp holding wide lead over Perdue
Victoria Balara, Fox News
Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp leads former Sen. David Perdue by a 32-point margin in the Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary race, tripling his advantage from March, according to a new Fox News Poll of Georgia Republican primary voters. Former NFL running back Herschel Walker dominates the field in the Republican Senate primary race. He leads by 58 points, with 66% supporting him and 74% of his backers certain they will vote for him.
Pennsylvania governor moves to Leans Democratic following primary; other reactions to Tuesday’s results
J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Republicans are concerned about their chances in the open Pennsylvania gubernatorial race after far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) won the party’s nomination. We’re moving that race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. The most notable development from the other primaries Tuesday was embattled Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R, NC-11) losing his bid for renomination.

What the Primaries Reveal About the Future of Trumpism
Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic [via opiniontoday.com]
For all the talk about how Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates would fare in the Republican primaries this year, the results in this week’s races made clear: Whatever happens to Trump’s personal influence, Trumpism is consolidating its dominance of the GOP.

Primaries Show Limits, and Depths, of Trump’s Power Over G.O.P. Base
Michael C. Bender & Maggie Haberman, New York Times
The tumultuous start to the Republican primary season, including a down-to-the-wire Senate race that divided conservatives in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, has shown how thoroughly Donald J. Trump has remade his party in his image — and the limits of his control over his creation.

Tuesday primaries show that Trumpism has metastasized
E.J. Dionne Jr., Washington Post
What matters most about Tuesday’s Republican primaries is not the scoresheet of how well candidates endorsed by former president Donald Trump did. What counts is how far to the right the GOP’s electorate has veered. This should scare everyone who lives outside the fever swamps.

In Tuesday’s primaries, Democrats’ left and center wings both got wins
Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post
Some Democrats allied with the party’s more center-left wing won key primaries on Tuesday, but progressives appear to have come out on top in other races. That split decision is likely to heighten the increasingly tense divide between those camps in the party.

Authenticity
Diane Feldman, View from the Pearl
Congratulations to John Fetterman on winning the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania. And kudos to you for being declared authentic. Being authentic has long been a positive description in politics and is increasingly rare.

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How Pa. GOP gov pick could turn election lies into action
Steve Peoples, Marc Levy & Farnoush Amiri, Associated Press
Doug Mastriano is not the only candidate who won a Republican primary on Tuesday after embracing Donald Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen. But no GOP contender did more to subvert that presidential election -- and no one may be better positioned to subvert the next one -- than Mastriano if he’s elected Pennsylvania’s governor.

Midterm Stakes Grow Clearer: Election Deniers Will Be on Many Ballots
Reid J. Epstein, New York Times
Republican voters in this week’s primary races demonstrated a willingness to nominate candidates who parrot Donald J. Trump’s election lies and who appear intent on exerting extraordinary political control over voting systems. The results make clear that the November midterms may well affect the fate of free and fair elections in the country.

The MAGA Formula Is Getting Darker and Darker
Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times [via opiniontoday.com]
The chilling amalgam of Christian nationalism, white replacement theory and conspiratorial zeal — from QAnon to the “stolen” 2020 election — has attracted a substantial constituency in the United States, thanks in large part to the efforts of Donald Trump and his advisers. By some estimates, adherents of these overlapping movements make up as much as a quarter or even a third of the electorate.

Why The GOP Might Not Turn Off Conservative Latino Voters
Alex Samuels, FiveThirtyEight
Promoting racial grievance politics to appeal to conservative (and often white) voters who perceive a threat to their status at the top of the racial hierarchy is a popular conservative political tactic — one that can have devastating and deadly consequences. Yet, as counterintuitive as it sounds, these messages of racial grievance could also appeal to voters of color, especially Latino voters, who were already open to supporting Republican candidates.

The Biden effect is real
David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call
And he’s dragging congressional Democrats down with him

Looking for competition in sorted statehouses
Louis Jacobson, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
In addition to usually facing midterm headwinds in federal races, the presidential party also often struggles in state legislative races in those years. However, Republicans have already made such impressive state legislative gains over the past dozen years that they do not have a ton of Democratic-held chambers to target.

The role party affiliation played in getting US to grim new milestone of 1 million COVID deaths
Monika L. McDermott (Fordham University) & David R. Jones (Baruch College, CUNY)
Our research finds that not only is party affiliation a powerful predictor of vaccine willingness, it also contributes to other attitudes that promote or inhibit willingness to be vaccinated, giving it added power.

What Tuesday’s Primaries Could Mean For November
FiveThirtyEight podcast
In this installment, the crew reacts to the outcome of Tuesday’s primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho and Oregon. The results were mixed in terms of which factions in both parties did well. The marquee Republican Senate race in Pennsylvania is still too close to call, and at least two Trump endorsees lost: North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn and Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin.

Tweet of Note
Twitter avatar for @gelliottmorrisG. Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
Looks like the leaked Dobbs decision and apparent imminent overthrow of Roe v Wade has had... no impact at all on the overall political environment?
economist.com/president-joe-…
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May 18th 2022

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