June 2, 2022
'Pro-Choice' Identification Rises to Near Record High in U.S. Lydia Saad, Gallup Abortion Views Flip From Majority Restrictive to Majority Permissive
Concerns About Inflation Soar Among Americans Navigator Research The vast majority of Americans remain pessimistic about the national economy, while unease about their personal financial situation has hit an all-time high since the beginning of Biden’s presidency. Growing majorities of Americans show concerns about inflation broadly and feel the costs of gas and groceries have increased“significantly” or “a lot” recently. An overwhelming and growing majority of Americans blame inflation on corporations being greedy and raising prices to make record profits. Substantial Support for ‘Great Replacement’ Theory and Other Hard-Right Ideas Southern Poverty Law Center In late April, the Southern Poverty Law Center and Tulchin Research conducted a poll of 1,500 Americans to examine the extent to which the extremist beliefs and narratives that mobilize the hard right have been absorbed by the wider American public. After Ukraine, Voters Want Climate Solutions Stanley B. Greenberg (Greenberg Research), American Prospect New polling shows a bolstered desire for a rapid transition to green energy.
New Hampshire: Granite Staters Support Roe, Divided on Support for Ukraine University of New Hampshire Survey Center Six in ten Granite Staters oppose overturning Roe v. Wade. Half of New Hampshire residents approve of President Biden's handling of the war in Ukraine. However, most who disapprove say it is because the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine. Most Granite Staters disapprove of Biden's overall job performance and only one in six, a record low, believe the country is headed in the right direction. New Hampshire: Pessimism Pervasive in NH About State & National Economies, Household Finances University of New Hampshire Survey Center Amid rising inflation and volatile markets, pessimism about the New Hampshire and U.S. economies has increased sharply since February among Granite Staters. The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball What a predictive model tells us about the last decade of results, as well as 2022
The GOP midterm wave is set — and Democrats can’t do anything about it Henry Olsen, Washington Post Democrats will be thankful if they lose only 20 to 35 House seats this fall. They know they could lose as many as 40 or even 50 seats, propelling Republicans to their greatest House majority since 1928. The GOP, meanwhile, knows they can make history if they keep their heads down, nominate sane candidates and keep the focus on President Biden. ‘It’s going to be an army’: Tapes reveal GOP plan to contest elections Heidi Przybyla, Politico Placing operatives as poll workers and building a "hotline" to friendly attorneys are among the strategies to be deployed in Michigan and other swing states. Biden’s new ‘transition’ economy is just ‘Build Back Better 3.0’ David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call If Biden’s op-ed this week or almost any of his economic statements over the past six months are any indication, this White House is operating under the illusion that its problem lies with the narrative, not the reality that its policies are more likely to make inflation worse, not better.
How Much Do Your Genes Shape Your Politics? Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times The topic of nature versus nurture in political attitude formation is highly controversial, to say the least, with social scientists, as a rule, reluctant to venture into hereditarian waters. Nonetheless, the topic continues to interest researchers, and there is a fairly constant stream of papers by credible and often esteemed scholars who have increasingly weighed in to argue that political behavior demonstrates both biological underpinnings and environmental influences. There’s A New Age Gap On Abortion Rights Daniel Cox (American Enterprise Institute), FiveThirtyEight Americans’ views on abortion have been relatively consistent for years despite massive demographic changes, social upheaval and shifting perspectives on sexuality. But that may be about to change. A new report from the Pew Research Center found that support for abortion rights is considerably higher among young Americans. What Comes After the Religious Right? Nate Hochman (National Review), New York Times Today’s culture war is being waged not between religion and secularism but between groups that the Catholic writer Matthew Schmitz has described as “the woke and the unwoke.” Rather than invocations of Scripture, the right’s appeal is a defense of a broader, beleaguered American way of life. How much are polls misrepresenting Americans? Science of Politics podcast, Niskanen Center Polling is ubiquitous, helping us predict elections and understand American public opinion. But declining response rates mean we’re reliant on the shrinking minority of Americans that are interviewed to represent the broader public. If they’re unrepresentative, we may be getting a misleading picture. Tweets of Note
Majorities of Democrats (81%) and Republicans (79%) favor legislation that would prevent people with a history of mental illness from owning guns. today.yougov.com/topics/politic…
NEW w/: Roughly half of Americans (51%) agree with the statement, "school shootings are a mental-health problem, not a guns problem." 41% of Americans disagree today.yougov.com/topics/politic…