June 14, 2022
Usual Midterm Indicators Very Unfavorable for Democrats Jeffrey M. Jones & Lydia Saad, Gallup With less than five months to go before voters elect all members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, the current Democratic congressional majority is facing an extremely unfavorable election environment.
President Biden's Approval Rating Undercuts Trump On Inflation Woes Jed Graham, Investor’s Business Daily President Joe Biden's approval rating sank to its lowest level yet as record gas prices sharpened inflation's bite for household finances, the June IBD/TIPP Poll finds. Young Voters, Who Helped Biden to Victory, Are a Big Weak Spot in the Democratic Coalition Eli Yokley, Morning Consult America’s youngest voters accounted for the biggest turnout increase of any age group between the past two presidential elections, helping deliver full control of Washington to President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats. But with just under five months until the midterm elections, it’s this group of voters who present a major challenge for the Democratic Party’s fraught efforts to hold onto Congress this year: Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking shows Biden’s decline is especially grim among 18- to 34-year-olds.
Household Spending Expectations Rise Sharply; Credit Access Perceptions and Expectations Deteriorate Further Federal Reserve Bank of New York The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the May 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations increased at the one-year horizon and remained stable at the three-year horizon. Household spending expectations over the next year rose sharply to a new series high. The Devil You Know: Americans and Europeans look out at the world and mostly see threats, not opportunities John Halpin, The Liberal Patriot Continuing TLP’s examination of comprehensive new public opinion data from Global Progress and YouGov, conducted with more than 10,000 respondents in 9 countries, it’s clear that many Americans and Europeans are skeptical and cautious about changes in the global landscape. After the Uvalde Shooting, Majority of Voters Support Red Flag Laws and Stricter Gun Control Sabrina Jacobs, Grace Adcox, Danielle Deiseroth, Erin Thomas & Bella Kumar, Data for Progress Following the devastating shooting in Uvalde, Texas, Data for Progress conducted polling regarding views on gun reform and proposed gun control policies. At the same time, a bipartisan group of senators released a plan to tackle gun violence through federal reforms, such as implementing red flag laws, closing the “boyfriend loophole,” and raising the age limit to purchase a semiautomatic rifle from 18 to 21. Data for Progress polling finds overwhelming support for these gun reforms. Vast Majority of Dallas Residents Want Gun Reforms Suffolk University An overwhelming majority of Dallas residents want to raise the gun purchasing age from 18 to 21, ban semi-automatic assault weapons, and institute mandatory background checks prior to the purchase of any weapons, according to an exclusive Suffolk University/Dallas Morning News CityView poll. Political divisions extend into Americans' friendships Dante Chinni, NBC News The Public Religion Research Institute released a survey in late May exploring who Americans tend to associate with in their core friend groups. One of the survey’s findings: Partisanship is a big part of our everyday lives. January 6 committee is testing whether Americans can still agree on a shared reality Ronald Brownstein, CNN With the powerful case it has assembled against former President Donald Trump, the bipartisan House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, insurrection may provide the clearest -- and potentially most ominous -- measure yet available of how completely red and blue America have separated into divergent information bubbles that no longer share even the most rudimentary agreement on the basic facts of American life. Blaming alleged fraud was always Trump’s central campaign strategy Philip Bump, Washington Post Donald Trump's stolen-election claims were proactive, not reactive. Jan. 6 Hearings Focus on Fox News Call That Made Trump’s Loss Clear Jeremy W. Peters & Jim Rutenberg, New York Times At Fox News, there was little drama over the decision to project Joseph R. Biden the winner of Arizona. But the relationship between Trump and the network was never the same. Democrats playing spoiler in Republican primaries Josh Kraushaar, National Journal The party has spent more than $20 million so far to help Republicans nominate deeply flawed candidates in key contests. The meddling is already paying political dividends. Is Nevada Turning Red? Blake Hounshell, New York Times No state was walloped harder by the economic impact of the pandemic, and voters may take out their anger on Democrats. How Overturning Roe Could Change The Way Americans Think About Abortion — And the Supreme Court Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, FiveThirtyEight If the conservative Supreme Court justices were hoping that eliminating abortion protections would make Americans think the country was on their side, they might not be as persuasive as they hope. A new preprint from Chelsey Clark and Elizabeth Levy Paluck, researchers at Princeton University, shows that the recent leak of a draft Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade made some Americans more likely to think others wanted abortion protections. Perhaps as a result, these Americans also saw the justices as more out of step with mainstream public opinion. The Politics of Abortion David Leonhardt, New York Times Polls show that support for abortion rights is rising. Will that help Democrats this fall? A response to some recent criticism of “popularism” Simon Bazelon, Out of the Ordinary Once we accept that changing minds about policies is crucial, the question remains, when, how, and in what context should we try to move public opinion? I tend to think that political campaigns are a terrible place to try to durably and significantly change public opinion on the issues. Campaigns are short, high stakes, and highly contentious. Even an issue that’s gaining steam can be derailed by entering the center of the political arena. One example of this is marriage equality. American Democracy is Under Threat — and Newsrooms Are Mobilizing to Cover It Celeste Katz Marston, Nieman Reports Reporters need to focus on local election agencies and move beyond horse race political coverage How did a bipartisan group of senators agree on new gun measures? Sarah Binder (George Washington U.), Monkey Cage Three factors made this incremental breakthrough possible Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians? FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast On Sunday, 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans in the Senate announced that they had reached an agreement on new gun-safety measures and funding for mental-health services and school security. The crew explains how senators made this bipartisan deal and considers whether this unwritten gun-control legislation could be passed by the end of the year. The team also discusses Alaska’s special primary election to replace its longtime U.S. representative, Don Young, who died in March. And on Tuesday, four states — Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina — are holding their primary elections. Finally, Kaleigh Rogers and Galen Druke talk about the ongoing House select committee hearings investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Tweets of Note
This paper is great. You are more likely to be interested in political news when a president of your party is popular or a president of the other party is unpopular. In other words, it is more fun to follow politics when the news is good for your party.
Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior @epovbThe Best Article in @PolBehavior Award goes to @jinwoo_kim01 and @eunjikim_media for their paper "Temporal Selective Exposure: How Partisans Choose When to Follow Politics" Read their paper here: https://t.co/pkvP56rJBA https://t.co/Nn9PH3GDlu