Opinion Today

June 18, 2022

Biden approval rating at 39% amid economic fears; 47% 'strongly disapprove'
Susan Page, USA Today
President Joe Biden said Thursday Americans were "really, really down." He's right about that. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll shows the country in a funk and one that sets a problematic political landscape for Democrats in the November elections that are approaching fast.

Biden disapproval hits new high as more Americans say they would vote for Trump
Andrew Romano, Yahoo News
As inflation keeps rising and recession fears loom, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that Joe Biden is currently in the worst shape of his presidency. The survey, conducted from June 10-13, found that if another presidential election were held today, more registered voters say they would cast ballots for Donald Trump (44%) than for Biden (42%).

Americans support student loan forgiveness, but would rather rein in college costs
Cory Turner & Sequoia Carrillo, NPR News
As President Biden inches toward an announcement on federal student loan forgiveness, a new NPR/Ipsos poll has found slightly more than half of Americans support what has been reported to be Biden's likeliest path: forgiving up to $10,000 per person. But an overwhelming majority – including a majority of those with student loans – said the government should prioritize making college more affordable over forgiving existing student loans.

Belief in God in U.S. Dips to 81%, a New Low
Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup
The vast majority of U.S. adults believe in God, but the 81% who do so is down six percentage points from 2017 and is the lowest in Gallup's trend. Between 1944 and 2011, more than 90% of Americans believed in God. Gallup's May 2-22 Values and Beliefs poll finds 17% of Americans saying they do not believe in God.

Pro-life, anti-abortion, or anti-choice: what label Americans use for people who oppose abortion
Linley Sanders, YouGov
In an effort to ensure YouGov’s polls on abortion were using the most commonly recognized language, we asked U.S. adult citizens what descriptor best matches someone who is generally opposed to abortion access, with the options of pro-life, anti-abortion, and anti-choice. Respondents could also write in their own answers or say they were unsure.

A Growing Majority of Americans Want Stronger Gun Laws After Uvalde
Navigator Research
Following recent mass shootings, two in three Americans say they want stronger gun laws – the highest share reported in Navigator history. Majorities say Washington has not done enough to prevent gun violence. The most popular gun violence prevention policies include background checks, mandatory safety training, restrictions on ghost guns, and raising the minimum age of gun purchase from 18 to 21.

A Republican pollster's advice on how to talk about the gun bill
Theodoric Meyer & Leigh Ann Caldwell, Washington Post
In the Senate Republican lunch on Tuesday, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) cited recent polling conducted for a nonprofit run by a former Cornyn aide to make the case for the gun package he's currently negotiating. We chatted with Neil Newhouse, one of the Republican pollsters who conducted the survey, about how voters feel about guns, why some popular gun policies don't have more Republican support and his advice for how Republicans should talk about the bill.

Biden's Economic Woes
Clifford Young, Sarah Feldman & Johnny Sawyer, Ipsos
Can policy makers and politicians meet public opinion where it stands today? This will be a difficult challenge as the context is shifting. Incumbency is under threat as we look into the near future.

Untangling Americans' Complex Views of Morality
Frank Newport, Gallup
Gallup's annual Values and Beliefs survey provides a fascinating glimpse into the American public's views of issues that can be classified under the broad rubric of morality. The survey, conducted each May since 2001, probes Americans' views about a series of specific issues and behaviors -- ranging from cloning humans to polygamy -- as well as broad questions about their views of moral values more generally.

What the Polls Can (And Can’t) Tell Us
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
For the last couple of years, I've stressed that when it comes to campaign polling, it's more important to focus on the vote share each candidate is getting than it is to obsess about the margin that separates the two candidates. I was reminded of how important it is to keep this "vote share vs. the margin" framing in mind as I watched political Twitter react to two recent polls taken in the battleground states of Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Gavin Newsom’s Case for a More Aggressive Democratic Party
Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic [via opiniontoday.com]
On May 4, two days after Politico rocked Washington by revealing the draft of a Supreme Court decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion, California Governor Gavin Newsom delivered remarks at a Los Angeles Planned Parenthood office—and triggered a small earthquake of his own.

Amid Jan. 6 Revelations, Election Lies Still Dominate the G.O.P.
Jonathan Weisman, New York Times
The hearings have demolished the myth of a stolen presidential election, but with the 2022 primary season in full tilt, the revelations have not loosened the grip of the lie on Republicans.

Americans believe the role of fathers has changed over time, but disagree on how
Taylor Orth, YouGov
The role of fathers has changed over the last few decades, according to most Americans. A recent YouGov poll conducted just before Father’s Day highlights the contradictions of modern fatherhood, as well as the expectations and responsibilities surrounding it.

Today’s suburbs are symbolic of America’s rising diversity: A 2020 census portrait
William H. Frey, Brookings Institution
If the 2020 census told us anything, it is that the nation is becoming more racially diverse and that diversity has dispersed widely across the country. Yet perhaps most eye-opening from this once-in-a-decade data drop is the increased diversity in the nation’s suburbs—areas once thought of as far whiter than most of the nation.

Cornell to lead innovative midterm election survey
James Dean, Cornell Chronicle
This year, the Cornell Center for Social Sciences will introduce the 2022 Collaborative Midterm Survey, implementing an innovative proposal awarded $2 million by the National Science Foundation's American National Election Study Competition. Engaging multiple partners using a combination of new and longstanding methodologies, the proposal seeks to generate election insights while also advancing the science of survey research, potentially establishing a model for future surveys.