Biden Job Approval Not Budging, U.S. Satisfaction DipsLydia Saad, Gallup
After a month that encompassed a mass school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, the start of the Jan. 6 committee hearings in Congress, and average gas prices hitting $5 a gallon amid rising inflation, President Joe Biden's job approval rating didn't change between May and June, holding at 41%.
Most Americans continue to think the U.S. is less respected today than in the pastPew Research Center
A majority of Americans have long held the view that the United States is less respected by other countries today than it was in the past, and around two-thirds of U.S. adults (68%) say that’s the case today, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
You've likely been affected by climate change. Your long-term finances might be, tooRebecca Hersher, NPR News
A great majority of Americans have been affected by extreme weather in recent years, and many suffer long-term financial problems as a result, according to a new nationwide survey conducted by NPR, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Economic Pessimism Increases as Americans Continue to Support Biden’s Economic AgendaNavigator Research
Biden’s economic approval ratings are deeply underwater as Americans remain pessimistic about the state of the national economy and their personal finances, but he remains above water on handling the pandemic. However, while only half are hearing about Biden and Democrats’ economic agenda, strong majorities continue to support it. Nearly three in five Americans support Biden’s plan to cancel $10,000 in student loans per borrower.
Most Americans support gender equity in sports scholarshipsLiz Clarke, Scott Clement & Emily Guskin, Washington Post [via opiniontoday.com]
While most Americans know little (or nothing) about Title IX, a strong majority supports requiring colleges and universities to offer women as many sports scholarships as men.
Wisconsin: Close races in Senate and governor primaries and in November electionsCharles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll
A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds close races shaping up in both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate primaries in August, as well as in the November U.S. Senate race. The poll also finds that incumbent Gov. Tony Evers has an early advantage in the general election for governor.
Pennsylvania: Voters 50+ Could Tip the Scales in 2022AARP
Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) narrowly leads State Senator Doug Mastriano (R), 49% to 46%. The race is even closer among voters 50 and older, with Shaprio leading 48% to 47%. John Fetterman (D), the lieutenant governor, leads Mehmet Oz (R), 50% to 44% in the open race for U.S. Senate. AARP commissioned Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research to conduct this survey.
New Poll Shows the Bizarre Dynamics in the Big Pennsylvania RacesBrent Orrell (American Enterprise Institute), The Bulwark
And which issues matter most to voters watching the Senate and gubernatorial campaigns.
New Hampshire: DeSantis Tied With Trump for 2024 GOP Presidential Nomination; Runs Better Against Biden Than TrumpUniversity of New Hampshire Survey Center
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is now statistically tied with Former President Donald Trump in the New Hampshire Republican Primary. Support for DeSantis has more than doubled since October. DeSantis runs better against Biden than does Trump, a further sign of Trump’s weakening support among NH Republicans. Biden and Trump are increasingly unpopular in New Hampshire and only about half of members of each of their own parties want them to run for President in 2024.
Massachusetts: Fomented by Inflation, Failing Trust & Ongoing Pandemic, Partisan Disputes Reign SupremeCenter for Public Opinion, University of Massachusetts Lowell
The latest poll from UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion shows the uncertainty, fear and negative outlook felt by the public is multifaceted. Inflation, trust in the federal government and the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic are all top-of-mind concerns. In the race for governor, Democrat Maura Healey has a near-30-point lead over her closest Republican opponent.
Out with The Olds!Peter Hamby, Puck
Gen Z, long ridiculed as enigmatic and just plain different, is poised to become part of the largest voting bloc in the country by 2028. A major new polling project is trying to fix that knowledge gap.
“The differences seem to be growing”: A look at the rising generation of news consumersKirsten Eddy, Nieman Lab
Younger audiences increasingly consume and think about news differently than older audiences do. They are more casual news users, rely more on social media, and are less connected to (and therefore less loyal to) news brands. They also have different perceptions of what news is and how it’s practiced.
Red Wave? Hard To See One NowSimon Rosenberg, NDN
It's been my belief for some time that this election wasn't going to necessarily behave like a traditional midterm, as the Republicans had run towards a deeply unpopular politics, not run away from it. That a red wave, while possible, was unlikely. What I found in reviewing recent publicly available polling of Senate and Governor's races - actual heads to heads, not other less important measures - was a competitive not a wave election. What was most surprising is how strong the Senate currently looks for Democrats.
More troubling signs for Trump 2024Aaron Blake, Washington Post
What Georgia and New Hampshire may have in common when it comes to the future of the GOP
Trump underperformed GOP House candidates more in places that he wonPhilip Bump, Washington Post
Trump allies kept pointing to his underperformance against House candidates as evidence that he lost because of fraud.
Why It's Possible For Some Americans To Support Abortion Yet Oppose RoeNatalie Jackson (Public Religion Research Institute), FiveThirtyEight
Investigating what we know about people who hold seemingly inconsistent views on abortion and overturning Roe reveals where cross pressures could result in conflicting views.
American Presidents: Greatest and WorstSiena College Research Institute
For the seventh time since its inception in 1982, the Siena College Research Institute’s Survey of U.S. Presidents finds that experts rank Franklin D. Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Theodore Roosevelt and Thomas Jefferson as the United States’ top five chief executives. The 141 participating presidential scholars agree with their peers over the last 40 years naming the same five leaders as America’s finest. For the second time, scholars include Donald Trump along with Andrew Johnson, James Buchanan, Warren Harding and Franklin Pierce in the bottom five.
How many endorse political violence? Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill
The debate over the number may have real consequences for the future course of political violence.
Why Conspiracy Theories Flourish in Trump’s AmericaThomas B. Edsall, New York Times [via opiniontoday.com]
Whether he is out of power or in office, Donald Trump deploys conspiracy theory as a political mobilizing tool designed to capture anger at the liberal establishment, to legitimize racial resentment and to unite voters who feel oppressed by what they see as a dominant socially progressive culture.
If the Polls Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix ThemPatrick Murray, Monmouth University Polling Institute
The polling industry has been proactive, and largely successful in addressing challenges as they arise (such as declining response rates, the growth in cell phone use, etc.). But in an era of distrust, we have to be even more vigilant and transparent. In that spirit, Monmouth is making available the full datasets for its final state election polls in 2020 and 2021. The 2020 files include appended voter file information for both respondents and nonrespondents.
An Introduction to Political and Social Data Analysis Using RThomas M. Holbrook, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
This book has two purposes: Provide students with a comprehensive, accessible overview of important issues related to political and social data analysis, while also providing a gentle introduction to using the R programming environment to address those issues.
How Biden’s Approval Rating Got So LowThe Daily podcast, New York Times
In alarming figures for Democrats ahead of the midterms, Mr. Biden’s approval rating has reached the lowest level of his presidency, while 70 percent of Americans say that the country is on the wrong track.
Tweet of Note