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The YouGov Big Survey on NATO and warMilan Dinic, YouGov
New YouGov research analyzed the views, attitudes, and opinions of Americans about the role and importance of NATO and about war. The study examines what Americans think about the role of military alliances, the United Nations, the impact NATO expansion had on relations with Russia, the ability of the U.S. military to defend the country, and the prospects for nuclear war and peace.
Tracking the 2024 U.S. Presidential ElectionCameron Easley & Eli Yokley, Morning Consult
Biden leads Trump by 1 percentage point in our latest tracking, 44% to 43%. It marks the Democrat’s first advantage over his presumptive Republican challenger since early May. This is the sixth successive week in which Biden’s net favorability rating has bettered Trump’s — the longest such stretch since April 2023 and a trend that began as legal proceedings in New York ramped up. The latest data shows Trump’s worst net favorability rating since late January.
Short-Term Inflation Expectations Decline Slightly; Consumer Optimism about Stock Market Reaches Three-Year HighFederal Reserve Bank of New York
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the May 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows inflation expectations declined at the short-term horizon, remained unchanged at the medium-term horizon, and increased at the longer-term horizon.
Views toward student loan relief are tied to partisanship and experience with debtAssociated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research
Less than a third approve of President Biden’s handling of student loan debt, but the public is more likely to support than oppose his administration’s latest debt relief plans.
Americans are split on Biden’s student loan work, even those with debt, new AP-NORC poll findsCollin Binkle & Linley Sanders, Associated Press
As he campaigns for reelection, President Joe Biden frequently touts his work on student debt, pointing to the millions of people who received cancellation under his watch. Yet relatively few Americans say they’re fans of his work on the issue, even among those who have student loans.
Views of 40 social movements reveal groups supported most by AmericansPaul Teas, YouGov
A recent YouGov poll asked Americans for their opinions on 40 different social movements, including whether they believe these movements have been successful. The results suggest which groups Americans prioritize and care about, as support for different movements varies widely.
What Type of Voter Are You? Take Our Poll to Find OutRandy Yeip & Aaron Zitner, Wall Street Journal [unlocked]
A WSJ/NORC survey shows a more nuanced picture of the U.S. electorate than simply red and blue
Most Black Americans Believe Racial Conspiracy Theories About U.S. InstitutionsKiana Cox, Pew Research Center
Most Black adults say the prison (74%), political (67%) and economic (65%) systems in the U.S., among others, are designed to hold Black people back, according to a new Pew Research Center survey of Black adults conducted in September 2023.
AJC Survey Shows American Jews are Deeply and Increasingly Connected to IsraelAmerican Jewish Committee
The majority of American Jews are not running from, but rather embracing their Jewish identity and support for Israel. That is one of the key overarching takeaways from American Jewish Committee's 2024 Survey of American Jewish Opinion. Despite – or perhaps due to – record levels of antisemitic hate in the U.S., the survey found deepening connections between American Jews, their Jewish identity, and the State of Israel. The survey also found that 61% said they would vote for President Biden in the upcoming election; 23% said they would vote for Donald Trump.
Who Thinks Their Freedoms to Buy or Own a Gun Are Restricted, and How Does That Affect Their Vote?PRRI
One of the most discussed topics leading up to a presidential election, no matter the candidate’s position, is gun control. The Biden administration, led by Vice President Kamala Harris, has advocated for increased gun control measures, such as background checks and bans on assault weapons, and even opened an Office of Gun Violence Prevention. Former President Donald Trump, however, has claimed himself to be the “most pro-gun” president, and will likely not enact gun control measures if elected this year.
Minnesota: Poll has Biden with narrow edge over Trump as both remain unpopularMark Zdechlik, MPR News
Democratic President Joe Biden carries a slight edge in Minnesota over former Republican President Donald Trump into their rematch, although a new Minnesota Poll shows that advantage is short of the incumbent’s victory margin four years ago in a must-win state for Democrats. Roughly 55 percent of respondents said they approve of DFL Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s job performance.
Minnesota PollCraig Helmstetter & Alyson Clary, APM Research Lab
In partnership with Minnesota Public Radio News, the APM Research Lab is analyzing the results of a statewide poll of likely voters in Minnesota conducted by Mason Dixon Polling and Strategy, on behalf of MPR News, the Star Tribune, and KARE11. The survey was conducted June 3-5, 2024.
Ohio: Trump Leads Biden by 7 Points, Brown up by 5 Points Over MorenoMarist Institute for Public Opinion
In Ohio, a state that former President Donald Trump won by about eight percentage points in 2020, Trump leads Biden by seven percentage points among registered voters in a multi-candidate field. 36% of residents statewide approve of the job Biden is doing in office while 59% disapprove. In the contest for U.S. Senate, 50% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. 45% back Bernie Moreno, his Republican challenger.
Young men and women are diverging politically. That could shape the 2024 election.Ronald Brownstein, CNN
While Democrats are counting on a big backlash among younger women against the rollback of abortion rights to help propel Biden, a backlash among younger men against changing gender roles could help lift Trump.
Why You Shouldn't Panic about the PollsDan Pfeiffer, The Message Box
Trump's advantage is small and fragile, which is why this a very winnable race
Why 270 is the most dangerous numberNate Silver, Silver Bulletin
Biden needs a more robust electoral map.
‘They’ve Lived This’: After Trump’s Conviction, Republicans Hope Latinos See Biden as Hugo ChávezOriana González, NOTUS
Much like Trump and his allies have claimed his criminal trials will help him with Black voters, Republican lawmakers and strategists told NOTUS that the verdict could make Latinos more sympathetic to the former president.
All bets are off in NevadaZac Weisz & Abigail Turner, National Journal [unlocked]
Surprising polls, a wavering economy, and an abortion-rights ballot initiative make predicting the state's presidential result a fool’s errand.
I’m the Governor of Nevada. This Is Why Trump Is Doing So Well With Our Voters.Joe Lombardo, New York Times
Nevadans’ unhappiness with the economy is driving Trump’s support in the state.
In Wisconsin, Biden tries to hold on to White voters without degreesTheodoric Meyer, Washington Post
White non-college voters are Trump’s base, but Biden seems to be hanging on to them in this Midwestern swing state
GOP overwhelmingly supports a Trump conspiracy theory, yet againAaron Blake, Washington Post
There remains no evidence that Biden was behind the Manhattan prosecution of the former president, but 80 percent of Republicans say otherwise.
Like 2020, voters view 2024 through the lens of TrumpPhilip Bump, Washington Post
New polling reinforces both candidates’ weaknesses — and that voters are centering their decisions on the former president more than the current one.
‘He sounded more like a politician': Trump gets hit by both Dems and his own supporters on abortionPolitico
The former president beamed in to talk to Southern Baptists. It backfired.
The Future is TerrorDon Moynihan, Can We Still Govern?
Trumpism ushered in an era of threats, intimidation and retribution. It is getting worse.
The Least Important Election of a LifetimeJosh Hersh, Columbia Journalism Review
Six months into 2024, it’s become clear that this will not be an enthusiastic political season—for voters or for the media.
Bad TVSusie Banikarim, Columbia Journalism Review
News networks got Trump wrong in 2016. Can they do any better now?
A Little to the LeftMaddy Crowell, Columbia Journalism Review
In 2016, far-right outlets upended the media. Now a new brand of liberal ventures is claiming turf online.
The Politicization of Climate Science: Media Consumption, Perceptions of Science and Scientists, and Support for PolicyYotam Ophir, Dror Walter, Patrick E. Jamieson & Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Journal of Health Communication
We analyzed nationally representative US data (N = 1,181) using measures that included not only reported use of mainstream print, cable, and social media captured in past research, but also science programming, as well as far-right, alternative-health, and Christian media. The results corroborate findings associating exposure to centrist media with pro-climate attitudes, and conservative media, including Fox News with the opposite views. Use of far-right outlets was associated with the lowest levels of belief in anthropogenic climate change, perceptions of personal threat, and support for climate-friendly policy.
The U.S. Economy Is Absolutely FantasticRogé Karma, The Atlantic
There are many ways to define a good economy. America is in tremendous shape according to just about any of them. The American public doesn’t feel that way—a dynamic that many people, including me, have recently tried to explain. But if, instead of asking how people feel about the economy, we ask how it’s objectively performing, we get a very different answer.
Why did Indian exit polls get it so very wrong?Shruti Rajagopalan
Sampling error, preference falsification, media bias, postponed census, and more.
A Striking Setback for India’s Narendra ModiIsaac Chotiner, The New Yorker
The truly disquieting thought was that the cult of personality around the Prime Minister had become suffocating and seemingly impossible to pierce—until now.
Trump and the European Populist RightGerard Baker, Wall Street Journal
Europe’s elites have been huddling in a defensive crouch to shield themselves pre-emptively from what they regard as the catastrophe of a looming second Donald Trump presidency. They can’t believe that instead of gratefully returning Joe Biden and his enlightened Democrats for four more years of the green revolution, vast increases in state spending and further devotion to the modern religion of diversity, equity and inclusion, American voters from no-name places between New York and California may succeed again in placing in the White House the man these Continental elites regard as the greatest threat to democracy ever. But it turns out that it isn’t the American electorate our cultured European friends most have to fear.
Biden Makes A Longshot Play For Nikki Haley VotersThe NPR Politics Podcast
The Biden campaign has hired a former Republican congressional chief-of-staff to lead its outreach to Republican voters, but interviews and polling suggest that, even despite Donald Trump's felony convictions, Nikki Haley's supporters are likely to back the former president come November.
George to Media: Stop Normalizing TrumpImpolitic with John Heilemann
John is joined by ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos to discuss their industry’s ongoing failure to cover Donald Trump, the GOP, and this political moment for what they are: radically abnormal.
Why the 2024 race is so close right now, according to pollsCBS News
New CBS polling shows the likely rematch between President Biden and former President Trump is neck and neck nationally and in the battleground states. The results come as Biden ended his D-Day trip to France with a message of unity and Trump campaigned out West. CBS News' Anthony Salvanto and Robert Costa have the latest.
Tamara Keith and Leigh Ann Caldwell on how Biden and Trump are courting Latino votersPBS NewsHour
NPR’s Tamara Keith and Leigh Ann Caldwell of The Washington Post join Amna Nawaz to discuss the latest political news, including where Republican lawmakers stand on reproductive rights, the stark differences between Trump and Biden on key policy issues and how the campaigns are courting Latino voters.
