Age, Issues Working to Trump's Advantage Pre-Debate Megan Brenan & Lydia Saad, Gallup Heading into the first debate of the 2024 presidential campaign some four months before Election Day, Donald Trump is viewed more positively than President Joe Biden across a range of measures, though neither candidate has a favorable image overall. Part of Trump’s advantage stems from the much more positive reviews the former president receives from his own party faithful than Biden receives from his.
Could Biden's Job Approval Rise Among Key Groups by November? Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup President Joe Biden’s latest 38% job approval rating remains largely unchanged from recent months and continues to put him well below the 48%+ threshold all reelected incumbents in the modern era have had at the time of the election. In debate, Democrats want more forceful Biden, GOP wants polite Trump; most want to hear about issues Jennifer De Pinto, Anthony Salvanto, Kabir Khanna & Fred Backus, CBS News In the debate Thursday, viewers mostly want to hear about Joe Biden and Donald Trump's plans for the country and their achievements as president, more than critiques of each other. Some will also be looking for whether or not these men have the mental and cognitive health to serve.
Republicans Rally Behind Trump After Conviction, Times/Siena Poll Finds Shane Goldmacher & Ruth Igielnik, New York Times [unlocked] President Biden continues to confront deeper doubts among Democrats than former President Donald J. Trump faces among Republicans — even after Mr. Trump was convicted of 34 felony charges last month, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.
Outlier Poll Results Are Inevitable. They’re Also Sometimes Right. Nate Cohn, New York Times The latest Times/Siena survey shows Trump up by six points among registered voters and three among likely voters. Trump trusted more than Biden on democracy among key swing-state voters Colby Itkowitz, Emily Guskin & Scott Clement, Washington Post [unlocked] A poll shows that Americans rate threats to democracy as an important issue, but that the president has yet to convince them he is the one to defend it.
Where support for American democracy is the most wobbly Philip Bump, Washington Post New Washington Post-Schar School polling in six swing states included an at-times-worrisome assessment of views of authoritarianism. Americans once feared Trump in a crisis. They now prefer him. Aaron Blake, Washington Post A look at one of the most striking — and potentially crucial — reversals from 2016 and 2020. A new measure of Americans’ deep distrust of the media Philip Bump, Washington Post Washington Post-Schar School polling in six swing states found that 7 in 10 voters don’t trust the media to report on politics accurately and fairly. Trump Pulls Ahead In Presidential Race Quinnipiac University Poll As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to face off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, Trump has a slight lead over Biden 49 - 45 percent in a head-to-head matchup. More than 7 in 10 voters (73 percent) think it is likely that they will watch the televised debate between Biden and Trump on Thursday. Voters give President Biden a negative 38 - 58 percent job approval rating. Voters disapprove 54 - 37 percent of the way the United States Supreme Court is handling its job. 54% think jury was correct in finding Trump guilty in New York state trial; Trump favorability unchanged. Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters finds 54% think that former President Donald Trump was guilty of the charges in his New York criminal trial, as the jury found on May 30, while 30% believe he was not guilty and the jury made the wrong ruling. Trump's favorability rating hardly changed from May to June, with 41% favorable in both May and June and 57% unfavorable in May and 56% unfavorable in June. The first debate, the draft, and summer travel: the June 23 - 25, 2024, Economist/YouGov Poll Kathy Frankovic & David Montgomery, YouGov This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the election, the first Biden-Trump debate, Kamala Harris, women and the draft, Supreme Court approval, a ruling on guns and domestic abusers, summer heat and travel, and cricket.
Who wins on policy? American support for Biden's and Trump’s proposals Taylor Orth & Paul Teas, YouGov What do Americans think about policy proposals from the two leading presidential candidates — Joe Biden and Donald Trump? A recent survey asked whether Americans support or oppose more than two dozen policies suggested by each candidate — without specifying which one proposed them.
Beyond politics: How Americans compare Biden's and Trump's abilities in other realms Taylor Orth, YouGov We asked Americans to compare the two leading presidential candidates in 20 situations. The results reveal that Biden is more likely to be seen as superior to Trump in the personal realm — including giving advice, helping others, and being hospitable. Trump, by contrast, is viewed as more likely to best Biden in physical and mental pursuits. Three in five Americans are likely to watch a Biden-Trump debate Ipsos A new Syracuse University/Ipsos American Identity poll finds that 61% of Americans are likely to watch a televised debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. While a majority, regardless of partisanship, are likely to watch the debate, Republicans (75%) are significantly more likely to say they will compared to Democrats (60%) and independents (58%). Confidence in the Supreme Court remains low AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research The public lacks confidence in the Supreme Court generally and their handling of key issues before them. Most believe justices are shaping the law to fit their own ideologies, rather than serving as an independent check for other branches of government.
7 in 10 Americans think Supreme Court justices put ideology over impartiality: AP-NORC poll Thomas Beaumont & Linley Sanders, Associated Press A solid majority of Americans say Supreme Court justices are more likely to be guided by their own ideology rather than serving as neutral arbiters of government authority, a new poll finds, as the high court is poised to rule on major cases involving former President Donald Trump and other divisive issues. Annenberg Survey Finds Public Perceptions of Scientists’ Credibility Slips Annenberg Public Policy Center New analyses from the Annenberg Public Policy Center find that public perceptions of scientists’ credibility – measured as their competence, trustworthiness, and the extent to which they are perceived to share an individual’s values – remain high, but their perceived competence and trustworthiness eroded somewhat between 2023 and 2024. The research also found that public perceptions of scientists working in artificial intelligence differ from those of scientists as a whole.
Pushed and Pulled. How Attitudes About Race and Immigration are Settling and Shifting After Trump John Sides, Michael Tesler & Robert Griffin, Democracy Fund In this report, we investigate how Americans’ attitudes about race and immigration evolved over Trump’s presidency and in the first three years of Biden’s term. We draw on several different surveys, but especially the Democracy Fund VOTER Survey (Views of the Electorate Research Survey), which has interviewed a sample of Americans multiple times since late 2011, augmenting that sample with new respondents along the way.
More Americans Would Not Want Their Child to be President Marist Institute for Public Opinion A growing proportion of Americans would not want their child to be President of the United States. Six in ten Americans, up from 2018, would not want their child to take the Oath of Office. While bipartisan agreement exists, opinions differ by age and gender. The Price is Wrong: How Biden Can Get Inflation Right Blueprint Blueprint has released a new poll that details voter perceptions of inflation and how they want to see it reduced, as well as which messages work best for President Biden and against Donald Trump on the issue. National Poll: Political Environment, Trends & Analysis Mclaughlin & Associates 1,000 General Election Likely Voters; Field Dates: June 18th – 24th, 2024 Voters Are Relatively Aligned Across Partisanship on the Causes of Homelessness in the U.S. and Potential Policy Solutions Tenneth Fairclough II, Lew Blank & Rob Todaro, Data for Progress In a new survey, Data for Progress tested U.S. likely voters’ perceptions of homelessness and support for potential solutions. Amidst Record-Breaking Heat Dome, 4 in 5 Voters Want FEMA to Respond to Extreme Heat Disasters Catherine Fraser, Margo Kenyon & Grace Adcox, Data for Progress In a new survey, Data for Progress finds that when presented with a list of extreme weather events, around 1 in 4 voters are most concerned about extreme heat (24%), followed by tornadoes (16%), hurricanes (13%), and wildfires (10%). It’s not just a protest vote: Why fed-up Georgia voters are looking beyond Biden and Trump ahead of the debate Ben Kamisar, NBC News Georgia voters in the latest NBC News Deciders Focus Group who backed Biden or Trump in 2020 are taking a serious look at third-party candidates.
Wisconsin: Biden and Trump tied among registered voters Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump tied at 50% in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters. Among likely voters, Biden is the choice of 51% and Trump the choice of 49%. Biden’s job approval in June stands at 40% with disapproval at 57%. In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 52% to Republican Eric Hovde’s 47% among registered voters. The results are the same with likely voters. California: Voters favor term limits for local county supervisors, district attorneys, and sheriffs Berkeley IGS Poll The latest Berkeley IGS Poll conducted on behalf of the Evelyn and Walter Haas, Jr. Fund among 5,095 California registered voters in early June explored a number of proposals aimed at reforming local governance. Who is ahead in 2024 presidential polls right now? Lenny Bronner, Diane Napolitano, Kati Perry & Luis Melgar, Washington Post Welcome to The Washington Post’s presidential polling averages. We have gathered the best available national and state-level polling data, and factored how citizens in each state voted in the last two presidential elections, to calculate whom voters currently favor in the presidential race. The presidential election isn't a toss-up Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor. A Biden Bump after Trump's Conviction? Nate Moore, The Liberal Patriot There is now building evidence that Trump’s conviction has indeed cost him in the polls. In addition to 538’s averages, both The New York Times and Echelon found two-point Biden gains in their post-conviction voter recontact surveys. Trump’s convictions show no distinct effect on voter backing Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill With Donald Trump’s felony convictions inscribed in the historical record and the first debate of the presidential cycle about to take place, time is ripe for both more accountability and additional iconoclasm. Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think G. Elliott Morris, 538 Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way. The debate: Preseason is over David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call Every voter has their own way of judging a presidential debate. There will be plenty of polls in the days after to tell us the impact. But my approach is to assess the lead-up, the debate and the fallout through the lens of four key elements. The Duelling Incomprehensibility of Biden and Trump in the 2020 Presidential Debates Katy Waldman, The New Yorker One of the many asymmetries of the Presidential race is that incoherence helps Trump and hurts Biden. Biden's Best Argument Against Trump Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box With the debate looming, the Biden campaign unveils it's anti-Trump message Biden campaign crafts digital debate strategy aimed at amplifying clips beyond Thursday Mike Memoli, NBC News The campaign headquarters is hosting 18 creators with a combined social media following of 8 million people for its own digital war room. In Biden-Trump debate, what they do — not what they say — could determine the winner Mark Z. Barabak, Los Angeles Times [via Yahoo] For most of those watching, what the two men say will be much less important than how they say it — or any of the nonverbal cues that Biden and Trump put across during their finite time together on a soundstage at CNN headquarters. A Political Base Is Only a Base Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Neither party can win without expanding its appeal to swing voters and even defectors. Joe Biden: The Old-School Politician in a New-School Era Peter Baker, New York Times After more than half a century in Washington, President Biden has learned to make deals and work across the aisle. But that instinct is rarely rewarded in today’s political climate. Rural voters don’t trust Biden. Do progressives even care? Jeff Bloodworth (Gannon U.), Washington Post A constellation of local and state Democrats is seeking to rebuild the rural grass-roots Democratic Party. Trump allies test a new strategy for blocking election results Amy Gardner, Patrick Marley & Colby Itkowitz, Washington Post In five battleground states, county-level officials have tried to block the certification of vote tallies — which election experts worry is a test run for trying to thwart a Biden victory. Notes on the State of Politics J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Some brief observations from this week’s primaries in New York, Colorado, and Utah. The science of protests: how to shape public opinion and swing votes Helen Pearson, Nature Demonstrations are on the rise, and scientists are revealing which types work best.
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Why it’s gotten harder to predict the outcome of the 2024 debates Good Authority The first presidential debate takes place tonight. As you probably know by now, Biden and Trump agreed to this June 27 debate and a second one on September 10. They are not going to do the usual three debates overseen by the Commission on Presidential Debates in late September and early October. Of course, the big question is: In a year of remarkably stable polling, could this debate actually change the state of the race? This is a more complicated question to answer than usual – and we can blame this new debate schedule.
White racial sympathy The Science of Politics The impact of racial attitudes in American politics isn’t just about the presence or absence of anti-Black prejudice. Some White Americans say they are highly sympathetic to the plight of Black Americans. Are they just placing Black Lives Matter signs in their yards or does it translate into political views and actions? Jennifer Chudy finds that many White Americans, especially liberal Democrats, have sympathy that translates into support for redistributive social welfare policies and opposition to punitive criminal justice policies. There is a growing and important left side of Americans' racial views.
Convenience Leads to Fraud with Rich Ratcliff, Part 2 (Solutions!) Cross Tabs Farrah Bostic continues her conversation with Rich Ratcliff, Chief Trust Officer at Opinion Route. They discuss the challenges of detecting and preventing survey fraud in the digital age, the importance of choosing the right sample partners, and the potential impact of AI – both positively and negatively – on research.
Two-Party System: Third Parties Need Not Apply The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart The first presidential debate is here, and voters do not seem thrilled with the two, very different candidates. How does a consumerist country built on choice produce so few options? This week, helping us to understand our two party system and why third parties don’t work within it, we’re joined by Max Stearns, Law Professor at University of Maryland Carey School of Law, and the author of “Parliamentary America: The Least Radical Means of Radically Repairing Our Broken Democracy,” as well as Sam Rosenfeld, Associate Professor of Political Science at Colgate University, and the co-author, with Daniel Schlozman, of “The Hollow Parties: The Many Pasts and Disordered Present of American Party Politics.” Together, they help us to understand the flaws in how our current system functions and offer some possible remedies going forward.