CNN polls across six battlegrounds find Georgia and Pennsylvania are key toss-ups Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Edward Wu, CNN The 2024 presidential campaign’s home stretch kicks off with a mixed outlook across six key battlegrounds, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in each state. Vice President Kamala Harris holds an advantage over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump has the edge in Arizona. The two split likely voters almost evenly in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the state with the largest electoral vote prize that’s widely seen as up for grabs.
Kamala Harris heads into Trump debate with lead, rising enthusiasm Susan Page, Sudiksha Kochi & Savannah Kuchar, USA Today In a new USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll, Democratic prospects have brightened and Republican confidence has been shaken in a presidential campaign that has unexpectedly pitted Vice President Kamala Harris against former president Donald Trump. Half of Gen Z voters support Harris, one-third back Trump Stephanie Perry and Marc Trussler, NBC News The NBC News Stay Tuned Gen Z Poll powered by SurveyMonkey shows Harris with a significant lead over Trump, but not quite the deficit Trump suffered in 2020.
Hispanic voters give Harris edge on healthcare, climate, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Jason Lange and Bo Erickson, Reuters Kamala Harris has neutralized Donald Trump's edge on the economy among Hispanic voters, and her 13 percentage point lead within that group reflects the fact they vastly prefer her approach to healthcare and climate change, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows. Banning Price Gouging, Capping Insulin Costs, Child Tax Credit Seen as Most Helpful Economic Policies for American Families Maryann Cousens, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report contains polling data on the latest perceptions of the economy, including who Americans trust to handle economic issues, what policies are seen as most helpful for American families, and which party is seen as most likely to support those policies. Kamala Harris Is Right to Focus on Price Gouging Danielle Deiseroth, Data for Progress Recent Data for Progress polling has found that likely voters select “the economy, jobs, and inflation” as their top issue this election — with swing voters prioritizing the economy at an especially high rate. These voters are particularly concerned about inflation and the cost of food and groceries. However, voters currently trust Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris on inflation by a +5-point margin — including a +31-point margin among swing voters — meaning Harris must use the next two months on the campaign trail to narrow the gap.
Prejudice toward Muslims is highest among all religious and ethnic groups Shibley Telhami, Brookings Institution After years of improvement, American public attitudes toward Muslims and Islam have declined in the past few months, and expressed public prejudice toward Muslims remains higher than toward any other religious, ethnic, or racial group studied. These are two of the key findings in our latest University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll SSRS, which measured opinions on several relevant dimensions and compared them with previous polls.
Michigan: Where voters stand in Trump-Harris race Kayla Clarke, WDIV Donald Trump leads 44.7%-43.5% among likely voters. 4.7% of voters back Kennedy. 2.3% of voters choose another third- party option. 4.8% of voters remain undecided. Among definite voters Harris holds a 1.6% lead over Trump. The WDIV/Detroit News survey was conducted by the Glengariff Group, Inc., between Aug. 26 and Aug. 29, 2024. Michigan: Harris might be gaining ground Kent Davis, WJRT A new EPIC MRA poll shows a massive change compared to July, when Biden was the presumptive Democratic Party nominee. Former President Donald Trump leads this poll by one point: 47 percent of voters picked him, while Vice President Kamala Harris got 46 percent of poll responses. Maryland: Alsobrooks has slim advantage over Hogan in Senate race Bryan Sears, Maryland Matters Democrat Angela Alsobrooks holds a 5-point lead over Republican Larry Hogan in their campaign for U.S. Senate, according to a poll released Wednesday. The Gonzales poll shows Alsobrooks leading Hogan 46%-41%, with 11% still undecided. As Groups Have Shifted, Has It Become a ‘Normal’ Election? Nate Cohn, New York Times Unusual demographic patterns are fading, but there are still some differences from the 2020 race. How the Presidential Election Got This Close Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times Polarization doesn’t just pull us apart; it holds coalitions together. Biden is suddenly seeing his best polls in years Aaron Blake, Washington Post Precisely why is a valid question, and there are a number of possibilities. But if the trend holds, it could undercut a key Trump campaign strategy. Harris bets on younger voters. But will they turn out? Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call Young people seem more invested in the 2024 election, making them a crucial part of the Democratic coalition later this year. But the question remains: Will voters under 30 actually turn out to vote? The 2 key states that could decide the 2024 election Aaron Blake, Washington Post Georgia and Pennsylvania loom largest, at least right now. And it has a lot to do with math. Taking the pulse of Pennsylvania's Trump country on the Lincoln Highway Mike Argento, USA Today Network Whichever candidate wins the Keystone State has a good chance of moving into the White House. The York Daily Record, a USA TODAY Network partner, took the pulse of the middle of the state ― traveling Route 30, known as the Lincoln Highway, from Coatesville to Chambersburg ― to document the feelings of the voters in Pennsylvania’s “flyover country," those who might not be tuned into the political spin that flows from cable news or websites of specious credibility. A ‘blue wall’ victory is not complete without Omaha’s blue dot Jeff Zeleny, CNN The battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania may be pivotal in the race for the White House, but winning those blue wall states alone do not guarantee a campaign victory without something else: Omaha’s blue dot. How Trump Can Improve His Chances of Winning Sen. Lindsey Graham, New York Times Mr. Trump has a long record of accomplishments on behalf of the American people. The more he compares his successes with Ms. Harris’s failures, the more likely it is that he wins. The Trump assassination attempt fades into the rearview David Weigel, Semafor Frustrated Republicans have tried to find ways to keep the Butler shooting in the news. “World War III?” Fewer U.S. Troops Died in Combat Under Biden-Harris Than Trump Bill Scher, Washington Monthly Trump’s most extravagant lie is that the Democratic administration are warmongers, and he was a peacemaker. Will Trump Have the Advantage in a Close 2024 Race? Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine While the September 10 debate and other campaign events could change the trajectory of the race, it’s more likely to remain a toss-up to the bitter end. And many fear, for various reasons, that in this scenario, Trump is likelier to prevail. Here’s a look at which of these concerns are legitimate, and which we can chalk up to superstition and the long tradition of Democratic defeatism. Kamala Harris is cutting off Trump’s political oxygen David R. Lurie, Public Notice Harris’s refusal to engage with Trump on his terms represents a break from how Democrats traditionally have dealt with him. For years now, Trump has made an art of luring his opponents to wrestle with him in the mud of his racist and misogynist insults and attacks. As a result, Trump has been able to neutralize the impact of (and sometimes even benefit from) his own vile activities and attributes. The state of the 2024 race, explained in 7 charts Nicole Narea, Vox Head-to-head polling isn’t the only way to gauge the state of play. Other election indicators — ranging from approval ratings and sentiments among key groups of voters to economic measures and campaign spending — all provide crucial context about where the electorate and this campaign are headed. Here are some factors beyond topline numbers that we think are especially crucial to help you gain a fuller understanding of the race. The State of the Race, Two Months Out Michael Baharaeen, The Liberal Patriot Harris leads for now but signs of a close race persist. What the polls show about Harris’s chances against Trump Andrew Prokop, Vox With Democrats so enthused about Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign of late, you might have gotten the impression that she has a solid polling advantage over former President Donald Trump. That’s not the case. How To Read the Polls Jonathan Bernstein, Good Politics/Bad Politics And what to ignore. A bit of advice for all of us. Myself included. Don’t Trust the Election Forecasts Justin Grimmer (Hoover Institution, Stanford), Politico Magazine The data doesn’t support the obsession with presidential prognostications. Don’t Flip Out Over Election Forecasts Kristen Soltis Anderson, New York Times We are now past Labor Day and in the homestretch of the 2024 campaign, and a lot of people are asking me and others in political polling and media: Who’s going to win in November? Is the race Donald Trump’s to lose? Can Kamala Harris turn her momentum into victory? With people craving this peek into the future, the spotlight is intensifying on a part of my industry that isn’t especially well understood: election forecasters and their predictive models. As Go Unions, So Goes America Michael Podhorzer, Weekend Reading Power concedes nothing but to collective action. Is the Democratic Party a strong party? Nathaniel Rakich, 538 Democrats' ouster of Biden shows political parties may still have some muscle. What a conference for the left just revealed about November Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post The war in Gaza and the threat of another Trump presidency pulled democratic socialists in opposite directions at a post-convention meeting in Chicago. The Political Rage of Left-Behind Regions Paul Krugman, New York Times What we can learn from the geography of right-wing extremism. Can You Guess Which Brands Republicans and Democrats Love? Dante Chinni, Brian Whitton and Kara Dapena, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Research shows that everything from your cereal to your sneakers can lean red or blue
Government by Public Opinion Peter Woolley (Fairleigh Dickinson U.), AAPOR Newsletter Reliable, frequent public opinion measurements in the United States have facilitated, in a way unprecedented in the histories of democratic rule, or any form of rule, the frequent invocation of public opinion, and its constant agitation, to arbitrate disputes among institutions and political actors. What politician does not begin half his or her paragraphs with “the American people want,” or do not want, have said, have weighed in, reject, endorse, etc.? Over the last three generations, polls have come to serve as the central linking mechanism between Americans and their government. Revealing the Submerged Administrative State Gabriel Scheffler & Daniel Walters, Can We Still Govern? Although the administrative state’s role in implementing laws and government programs is well known to policy insiders, we argue that the critical work that federal agencies do is submerged—to borrow a term coined by political scientist Suzanne Mettler. That is to say, it is hidden from public view, making it difficult for Americans to perceive it or to understand its day-to-day effects on their lives. Assistant Professor Position in Sociology: Open Research Specialty, Quantitative Methods UC Santa Barbara The Sociology Department at the University of California – Santa Barbara invites applications for a tenure-track assistant professor position beginning July 1, 2025.
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PLAYLIST
Summer Is Over. Election Season Is Here. 538 Politics Labor Day is behind us and the conventional final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign is here. There will be a rush of advertising, debates, more urgent attention paid to jobs reports, and October surprises. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at where we are in the campaign and how we got here. In the second episode this week, we'll look at what to expect over the coming two months.
Steve Kornacki lays out the path to 270 electoral votes for the post-Labor Day sprint to November NBC News NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki looks at the state of the presidential race with less than 10 weeks to go until election day.
How Trump has made election lies a key feature of his campaign PBS NewsHour With just over 60 days to go until Election Day, former President Trump is again casting doubt on the legitimacy of the process. Lies about the 2020 election have been a key feature of Trump’s third campaign for the presidency. White House correspondent Laura Barrón-López takes a closer look with David Becker of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research.
What Environmentalism Got Wrong: Lessons from the Civil Rights Movement Breakthrough Institute Research on climate change and public opinon delivered by Celinda Lake and Omar Wasow on a panel discussion in Sausalito, California, on June 21, 2024, at The Breakthrough Dialogue, "The Death of Environmentalism."