CNN Flash Poll: Majority of debate watchers say Harris outperformed Trump onstage Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN Registered voters who watched Tuesday’s presidential debate broadly agree that Kamala Harris outperformed Donald Trump, according to a CNN poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS.
Who won the Harris-Trump debate? We asked swing-state voters. Adrián Blanco, Eric Lau, Scott Clement, Emily Guskin and Dan Keating, Washington Post [unlocked] In the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, The Washington Post tried something new: We asked a group of uncommitted, swing-state voters in real time about their reactions to Tuesday’s debate. They thought Harris performed better, regardless of how they plan to vote in November.
Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over Donald Trump in YouGov's first MRP estimates of the 2024 presidential election Douglas Rivers, Delia Bailey, David Montgomery & Carl Bialik, YouGov This is the first release of our model estimating 2024 presidential election votes in every state, based upon nearly 100,000 recent interviews of registered voters. We show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% just before their first debate. However, the race will be determined by who wins the most electoral votes, not popular votes, and, as it currently stands, the race is a toss-up. We have Harris leading in 22 states and Washington D.C. with 256 electoral votes and Trump leading in 25 states with 235 electoral vote.
Harris holds a slight edge over Trump — and it’s driven by women, poll finds Grace Panetta, The 19th The gender gap is even bigger among women of color — and dads back Trump by a wide margin, a new 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll shows. NPR/PBS News/Marist National Poll: Harris +1 Point Against Trump Nationally, Edges Trump By 3 Among Definite Voters Marist Institute for Public Opinion Harris (49%) and Trump (48%) are competitive nationally among registered voters including leaners, tightening the race from August when Harris (48%) was +3 points against Trump (45%) in a multicandidate field. Among those who say they definitely plan to vote, Harris (51%) edges Trump (48%) by 3 points.
Harris narrowly leads Trump, but he’s ahead with these key groups Matt Loffman, PBS NewsHour Among registered voters, Harris leads Trump by 1 point — 49 percent to 48 percent. Her lead grows to 3 points (51 percent to 48 percent) among people who say they will definitely vote in November. Both results are within the margin of error. NPR poll shows why the stakes are so high for Harris and Trump in the debate Domenico Montanaro, NPR News Trump continues to have the upper hand on many of the fundamentals in this election — he’s trusted more on the economy, immigration and how to handle the Middle East. And people who want a strong leader prefer him by a wide margin. Republicans are more likely to trust Trump than official election results: AP-NORC/USAFacts poll Christine Fernando & Linley Sanders, Associated Press While most Americans trust government-certified election results at least a “moderate” amount, Republicans are more likely to trust Trump and his campaign, according to a new survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USAFacts.
KFF Health Tracking Poll September 2024: Harris v. Trump on Key Health Care Issues KFF Four in ten voters (38%) choose the economy and inflation as the most important issue determining their vote this fall from a list of national issues, including several health care issues. Abortion continues to motivate a small group of voters, mainly Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent women voters of reproductive age (ages 18-49).
Four in Ten Americans Are Susceptible to Authoritarianism, But Most Still Reject Political Violence PRRI In the wake of the violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol Building in 2021 and as the Project 2025 blueprint looms over the 2024 election, a new PRRI survey of more than 5,000 Americans takes a closer look at Americans’ support for authoritarianism by revisiting long-established measures of authoritarianism and their relationships to partisanship and religion. According to the survey, support for authoritarian views are strongest among Republicans (particularly those who hold favorable views of former President Donald Trump), supporters of Christian nationalism, white evangelical Protestants, and weekly churchgoers. CBS News poll for 2024 Senate races shows Democrats lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Kabir Khanna, CBS News Though Democrats face a formidable U.S. Senate map in 2024, they're currently ahead in three key races. In CBS News' first poll of the race for Michigan's open Senate seat, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is leading former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers by seven points. Meanwhile, Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin are ahead in their reelection bids by seven points and eight points, respectively. Harris leads among Virginia voters, Post-Schar School poll finds Gregory S. Schneider, Laura Vozzella, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin, Washington Post The eight-point margin for Harris suggests Virginia would be a long-shot for Trump, whom voters view negatively and who is not significantly preferred on any issue. Sen. Tim Kaine (D) has a comfortable margin over his Republican opponent, Hung Cao. He outperforms Harris to lead Cao by 12 points among likely voters, at 53 percent to 41 percent. Americans Believe that Republicans Would Try to Pass Several Policies from Project 2025 Maryann Cousens, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report contains polling data on the latest perceptions of Project 2025, including levels of awareness and support for Project 2025, what Americans are hearing about Project 2025, and what policies from Project 2025 Americans believe Republicans are most likely to try and pass. Voters Support Litigation to Hold the Plastics and Fossil Fuel Industries Accountable for Their Role in the Plastic Waste Crisis Kevin Hanley and Grace Adcox, Data for Progress The Center for Climate Integrity and Data for Progress recently surveyed 1,231 likely voters in the U.S. to understand perceptions of plastics and plastic recycling, investigate attitudes toward municipal plastic waste problems and solutions, and assess reactions to learning about the plastics and fossil fuel industries’ deception regarding the viability of plastic recycling.
Here’s what undecided voters thought of the Trump-Harris debate CNN CNN's Phil Mattingly speaks with a CNN panel of undecided voters in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania following the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Pundits Said Harris Won the Debate. Undecided Voters Weren’t So Sure. Jeremy W. Peters, Jack Healy and Campbell Robertson, New York Times Voters said the vice president talked about a sweeping vision to fix the country’s most stubborn problems. But they wanted the fine print. Harris won the debate — and it wasn’t close Politico Our takeaways from the Harris-Trump debate. It Was Donald Trump’s Night — in the Worst Possible Way Jeff Greenfield, Politico Magazine It’s clear Kamala Harris won the faceoff. Here’s what to look for next. Harris Used Debate to Define Herself—and Trump Molly Ball, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Vice president entered the debate as the candidate on the defensive, but she often caught her Republican opponent on his back foot The debate between Harris and Trump wasn’t close — and 4 other takeaways Domenico Montanaro, NPR News Tuesday’s debate between the current vice president and former president was a clear contrast from the June debate that forced President Biden from the race. 3 winners and 2 losers from the Harris-Trump debate Andrew Prokop, Nicole Narea, and Christian Paz, Vox The online prediction market Polymarket — reflecting bettors’ estimates of what’s likely to happen — showed a 97 percent chance that the debate would help Harris in the polls. Prediction markets typically just reflect the conventional wisdom, but what this does tell us is that very few people are willing to bet actual money that the debate will help Trump. 4 takeaways from the first Trump-Harris presidential debate Aaron Blake, Washington Post The vice president had a strong debate by keeping Trump on his heels — and making it all about him. How Harris Roped a Dope David Frum, The Atlantic Vice President Kamala Harris walked onto the ABC News debate stage with a mission: trigger a Trump meltdown. She succeeded. Former President Donald Trump had a mission too: control yourself. He failed. Trump lost his cool over and over. Goaded by predictable provocations, he succumbed again and again. Harris’s debate prep seemed to have concentrated on psychology as much as on policy. She drove Trump and trapped him and baited him—and it worked every time. Trump missed the moment. But he's in better shape at this juncture than in 2016, 2020 Scott Jennings, Los Angeles Times [via Yahoo] The first 15 minutes of the Philadelphia debate, and the closing minutes, were where former President Trump should have been all along. Donald Trump Had a Really, Really Bad Debate Susan B. Glasser, The New Yorker Kamala Harris, veteran prosecutor, proved beyond a reasonable doubt on Tuesday night that her opponent will always take the bait. Kamala Harris Baited Donald Trump Into a Debate Meltdown Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine Kamala Harris faced a tricky task in the first presidential debate. Her training and skills are as a prosecutor, but her main task was not prosecutorial. It was to define herself to an electorate whose decisive bloc still knows too little about her to feel certain she is worth supporting. Harris’s response to this dilemma was either a brilliant strategy or serendipity. She baited Donald Trump into losing his temper, then used the visual contrast between them to establish herself as not only a plausible president but the only plausible president onstage. How Kamala Harris goaded (and goaded and goaded) Trump into a debate trainwreck Zack Beauchamp, Vox Harris found Trump’s biggest weakness: his ego. Kamala Harris gives abortion rights advocates the debate answer they’ve longed for in Philadelphia Associated Press When President Joe Biden gave bumbling remarks about abortion on the debate stage this summer, it was widely viewed as a missed opportunity — a failure, even — on a powerful and motivating issue for Democrats at the ballot box. The difference was stark, then, on Tuesday night, when Vice President Kamala Harris gave a forceful defense of abortion rights during her presidential debate with Republican Donald Trump. The Moment Trump Couldn’t Resist Bungling Matt Flegenheimer, New York Times The initial question, at least, should have been fertile terrain for former President Donald J. Trump: a prompt for Vice President Kamala Harris about immigration, a vulnerability for her, and how she might diverge on the subject from her boss, whose policies on the border have often come under withering criticism. But by the time Mr. Trump got to talking, he had something else on his mind: rally attendance. Also cats. ‘They’re Eating the Cats’: Trump Repeats False Claim About Immigrants Jazmine Ulloa, New York Times [unlocked] Donald J. Trump amplified an outlandish internet theory from the debate stage, drawing laughter from his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Kamala Harris got the debate she wanted Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin 16 quick thoughts on tonight's debate About that Times Poll Michael Podhorzer, Weekend Reading Separating the signal from the noise Harris’s rise in the polls has stalled, while Trump holds steady Lenny Bronner, Washington Post [unlocked] Two possible explanations for why Harris’s poll numbers have begun to plateau and how we should think about the race ahead of Tuesday’s debate. You get a poll! You get a poll! Everybody gets a poll! Natalie Jackson (GQR Research), National Journal [unlocked] We can’t survey our way into knowing what will happen in an election this close. A quarter of Republicans think Trump should seize power even if he loses Philip Bump, Washington Post [unlocked] As the election approaches, new polling shows the breadth of support for Trump’s authoritarian tendencies. The Battle for Skeptical Independents John Halpin, The Liberal Patriot Actions matter more than words with non-partisan voters. Trump winning on ‘change’? Not so fast. Aaron Blake, Washington Post A new poll calls into question a popular — but oversimplified — narrative about the role of change in the 2024 election. Voters Aren’t Buying Harris's Pivot to the Middle So Far Michael Baharaeen, The Liberal Patriot The vice president is still seen as the more ideological of the two candidates. What Polls Say About a Key Group: Begrudging Trump Voters Kristen Soltis Anderson, New York Times There’s a small group I’ll call “begrudging Trump voters” — those who dislike him but plan to vote for him anyway. In the Times/Siena poll, about 7 percent of those who said they would vote for Mr. Trump fell into this category; he gets their votes even though they also say they think of him unfavorably. Since 2016, Trump has kept dialing up his racist appeals Philip Bump, Washington Post One lesson the former president took away from 2020, it seems, is that his approach to race is not a barrier to his support from non-White people. Trump Makes No Sense and Is Full of Meaning Jamelle Bouie, New York Times [unlocked] On the question of his political opponents, he’s clear. He will punish them, if we give him the power to do so. How the psychology of political division could lead us out of it Jamil Zaki and Luiza Santos (Stanford), Washington Post Studies suggest that people who empathize during disagreement are better able to persuade others. Republican Science Denial Has Nasty Real-World Consequences Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times A substantial number of Republican voters are losing faith in science. U.S. Incomes Climbed Last Year, Census Bureau Says Jon Kamp and Paul Overberg, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Household incomes rose 4% from 2022 to 2023, the first rise since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic
State election workers say threats are escalating ahead of 2024 vote: "A heightened state of anxiety" Major Garrett, CBS News Election officials from seven battleground states convened in Atlanta last week to compare notes and prepare for Election Day. Four of them — one Democrat and three Republicans — spoke with CBS News about the stress and anxiety of their jobs, and also their conviction that elections are conducted freely and fairly.
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PLAYLIST
Harris Baits Trump: Inside Their Fiery Debate The Daily In their first and possibly only presidential debate, Vice President Kamala Harris dominated and enraged former President Donald J. Trump. Jonathan Swan, who covers politics and the Trump campaign for The Times, explains how a night that could have been about Ms. Harris’s record instead became about Mr. Trump’s temperament.
Harris Trolls Defensive Trump In Debate 538 Politics The crew reacts to the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in this late night podcast.
The Two Americas, with Mike Podhorzer Cross Tabs America's political landscape is deeply divided into two distinct nations, shaped by historical, economic, and cultural forces that extend far beyond simple demographics. This divide manifests in vastly different lived experiences, policy preferences, and institutional structures between red and blue states, with profound implications for the future of American democracy and governance. In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Mike Podhorzer, a political strategist and data analyst, to discuss Podhorzer's excellent analysis of The Two Americas, examining how factors like regional factionalism, economic models, religious institutions, and labor unions have contributed to the current political polarization. The conversation covers the limitations of traditional polling methods, the role of exogenous events in shaping political alignments, and the potential for collective action to address systemic issues in American politics.
Pennsylvania voters react to Harris-Trump debate CBS News What did voters think of Tuesday night's presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump? CBS News congressional correspondent Nikole Killion spoke with a focus group in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, to find out.
Chuck Todd, Steve Kornacki evaluate Trump's debate performance and future strategy NBC News NBC News' Chuck Todd comments on the chances of another debate while Steve Kornacki reflects back on Donald Trump's post-debate 2016 polling patterns.
‘Devastating’: Analysts react to Harris-Trump debate CNN CNN’s panel of political experts react to Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump’s debate, hosted by ABC News.