Small Movement Post-Debate: Large gender gaps on trust to handle immigration, abortion Monmouth University Polling Institute Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold slightly more voter support than former President Donald Trump in the 2024 race for president. There has been practically no change in these numbers since the last national Monmouth University Poll taken a few weeks after Harris entered the race, with only a handful of voters saying last week’s debate caused them to reconsider their support.
Harris posts record lead over Trump Cameron Easley & Eli Yokley, Morning Consult Harris leads Trump by a record-high 6 percentage points among likely voters, 51% to 45%, up from a 3-point advantage before their debate last week. Most likely voters who watched at least some of the debate (61%) — including 1 in 5 Republicans — said Harris performed best, compared with 33% who said Trump was the winner. How views of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump changed after their debate Taylor Orth & Carl Bialik, YouGov Polling in the immediate aftermath of the debate between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump found that Harris was perceived by far more Americans as the night's winner. New results from surveys conducted after the debate are consistent with those initial findings, and show how views of the candidates — including their debate styles, personalities, and policies — have changed after their first and potentially last showdown.
Favorable Ratings of Harris, Trump Remain Under 50% Megan Brenan, Gallup Nearly identical percentages of U.S. adults rate Donald Trump (46%) and Kamala Harris (44%) favorably in Gallup’s latest Sept. 3-15 poll, during which the candidates debated for the first time. Both candidates, however, have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings.
Americans view Walz more positively than Vance, but many aren’t familiar with either VP nominee Joseph Copeland, Pew Research Center Americans are relatively divided in their views of Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey of 9,720 adults. And the public’s views of the vice presidential candidates are largely split along lines of support for the two people at the top of each ticket: former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. More Americans – especially young adults – are regularly getting news on TikTok Rebecca Leppert & Katerina Eva Matsa, Pew Research Center A small but growing share of U.S. adults are regularly getting news on TikTok. In fact, since 2020, no social media platform we’ve studied has seen faster growth in the share of Americans who regularly turn to it for news, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis.
Re-Imagining Political Leadership: What Young Americans Look for in Leaders Sine Institute of Policy and Politics, American University The Sine Institute’s innovative “Reimagining Political Leadership: The Outlook of Young Americans” poll reveals new insight into the attributes that young Americans ages 18-34 look for in their political leaders, as well as other topics related to voting and other forms of civic engagement. Arizona: Trump and Harris neck and neck Data Orbital / AZ Free News Kamala Harris trails Donald Trump by a slim 46.0% to 46.2% margin. 7.7% reported as being undecided or refused the question. California: Post-Debate Presidential Polling CA 120 / Capitol Weekly This survey was conducted by Paul Mitchell, Vice-President of Political Data and owner of Redistricting Partners, on behalf of CA 120 / Capitol Weekly under the nonprofit organization Open California. The survey asked voters if the election was held today, who would they vote for. Harris was the choice of 59% of voters, compared to 34% for Trump. Polls show Harris gaining after the presidential debate G. Elliott Morris, 538 She's up to a 61-in-100 chance of winning, per the 538 forecast.
Harris is gaining in post-debate polls Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin 11 quick thoughts on the state of the race What the Polls Say Outside the Key Swing States Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Polling in states that are somewhat competitive for president but outside the group of 7 that is likely to decide this election generally reflect what happened in 2020, although Donald Trump is usually performing slightly better than the actual 2020 results in those states, much like the polling in the key battlegrounds that we covered last week. Polls in states that are more clearly blue or red sometimes differ more from the 2020 results, but it’s not uncommon for the dominant party in a given state to be understated in pre-election polling. Kamala Harris just got one of her best polls of the year Harry Enten, CNN The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., found Donald Trump at 47% to the vice president’s 43% – within the margin of error – in a state the former president has twice won comfortably. (The poll was conducted last week, before Sunday’s apparent assassination attempt against Trump.) While the Hawkeye State is unlikely to be pivotal in November, the fact that Selzer found a close race in a state Trump has dominated could signal good things for Harris, both in terms of the accuracy of polling and for her chances in next-door Wisconsin. I’ve Studied the Polls. Here’s Why Harris Isn’t Running Away With It. Kristen Soltis Anderson, New York Times First, there’s not a lot of evidence that the debate helped Ms. Harris’s numbers in a meaningful way — at least not yet. Here’s what a Kamala Harris victory looks like David Weigel and Kadia Goba, Semafor The closeness of the 2020 election in key states gave both parties handbooks on how to win them — seven states, fitting three categories. Something odd happened: There’s a candidate Americans (sort of) like Philip Bump, Washington Post In 538’s average of polls, the percentage of Americans who view Harris favorably has for the first time exceeded the percentage who view her unfavorably. Only barely, mind you; the difference is one-tenth of a percentage point.
Another viral gender gap graph doesn’t tell the whole story John Sides (Vanderbilt), Good Authority There’s no polling consensus that Gen Z men lean Trump. Happiness swings votes – and America’s current mood could scramble expectations of young and old voters Carol Bishop Mills (Florida Atlantic U.), The Conversation Today’s young Americans are unhappier than past generations. That’s true worldwide, according to the 2024 World Happiness Report, but the drop is particularly drastic in the U.S.
Tim Walz, a ‘Snowman Melting,’ Tests His Appeal in the Sun Belt Kellen Browning and Jazmine Ulloa, New York Times [unlocked] The Minnesota governor was picked for his appeal to the white working-class. The Harris campaign hopes he can reach other demographics, too. Vance demands we ‘love our neighbors,’ perhaps surprising Haitians Philip Bump, Washington Post At a Faith & Freedom Coalition dinner, the Republican vice-presidential candidate lamented partisan hostility without any apparent awareness of the irony. How Trump’s Allies Are Winning the War Over Disinformation Jim Rutenberg and Steven Lee Myers, New York Times [unlocked] Their claims of censorship have successfully stymied the effort to filter election lies online. How A.I., QAnon and Falsehoods Are Reshaping the Presidential Race Stuart A. Thompson, New York Times [unlocked] Three experts on social media and disinformation share their predictions for this year’s chaotic election. Migrants Are Settling in Thriving Blue Counties — Not the Red Counties That Need Them Elena Mejía & Shawn Donnan, Bloomberg [unlocked] Bloomberg News analyzed immigration court data obtained by researchers at Syracuse University that show where the 1.8 million asylum seekers and refugees who landed in the US in 2023 have taken up residence. In past decades, these records for immigration court cases would not have offered as comprehensive a picture of new arrivals. Now, though, more border-crossers are turning themselves in to apply for asylum and, eventually, a work permit, making the data set more exhaustive. Forecasts and betting markets won’t give you a better prediction than polls Natalie Jackson (GQR Research), National Journal [unlocked] You really will just have to wait for election returns to know who’s going to win. What happened to Nate Silver Andrew Prokop, Vox Once beloved by progressives, Silver now feuds with them regularly. He tells us why. Lawsuit could bar Arizona residents with missing citizenship documents from voting in state races Adam Edelman, NBC News An error that was discovered in the way the battleground state verifies citizenship could prevent almost 100,000 Arizonans from voting in local elections this fall. Threats to Democracy in Battleground States Jim Messina, Chair of Democracy Defenders PAC and Lauren Groh-Wargo, CEO of Fair Fight Voter suppression, intimidation of election officials, frivolous lawsuits, and deliberate attempts to cast doubt on the electoral process are real, persistent, and ongoing. These coordinated attacks aren’t just targeting the presidential race; they threaten down-ballot races across the country.
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PLAYLIST
Escape from Election Twitter, with Lakshya Jain Cross Tabs In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Lakshya Jain, a co-founder of the elections blog Split Ticket. Jain offers insights into the intricacies of election modeling, discussing the limitations of polls, the importance of cross-tabs, and the value of embracing uncertainty in forecasts. He also touches on the recent shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, exploring how this change has reshaped polling data and electoral predictions.
Chris Stirewalt on the State of the Election One on One with Robert Doar Chris Stirewalt joins Robert to react to the debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and assess the current state of play in the presidential and congressional races. They discuss undecided voters, key Senate races, and what election night might look like.
Can Democrats Finally Win North Carolina this November? The Odd Years Amy's guest today, Dr. Michael Bitzer, calls North Carolina the "stuck battleground state." That's because Republicans have dominated there in presidential elections. And yet, every four years, Democrats hold out hope that they can turn it blue. Barack Obama did it in 2008, but no other Democrat has done so since. Will 2024 be different?
How (Not) to Change Someone's Mind Good on Paper When do fact-checks work? And when do they backfire and cause someone to dig in? Yamil Velez, a political scientist at Columbia University, set up an experiment using chatbots and found that people can change their mind, even on deeply held beliefs. Except under one condition: when the chatbot is rude.
These are some of the biggest voting myths CBS News Election Day is just seven weeks away and some early voting is set to begin this month. CBS News election law expert and political contributor David Becker explains what to know.