Harris Had Stronger Debate, Polls Find, but the Race Remains Deadlocked Shane Goldmacher and Ruth Igielnik, New York Times [unlocked] Kamala Harris holds an edge over Donald J. Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. But new surveys found that the race remains a tossup nationally.
Harris Ahead in Pennsylvania and Tied Nationally? Unpacking an Unexpected Result. Nate Cohn, New York Times [unlocked] Although it could simply reflect the normal variation of polling results, it may also point to a declining Trump edge in the Electoral College. Harris Edges Trump; but Democracy, Tariff Doubts Linger Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, Florida Atlantic University A new national poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab and Mainstreet Research USA shows Kamala Harris with a narrow lead over Donald Trump. Harris leads Trump by a slim margin of 50% to 45% among likely voters. The poll also uncovers complex voter attitudes toward democracy, economic policies, and the impact of celebrity endorsements. The economy tops voters’ minds as they consider their vote in the upcoming election AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, about 8 in 10 registered voters say that the economy is one of their top issues when thinking about their vote in the November election. When it comes to which candidate that registered voters trust to better handle these top issues, both Harris and Trump are closely matched regarding the economy, crime, immigration, and the war between Israel and Hamas. Harris has an advantage over Trump when it comes to gun policy, climate change, abortion policy, and health care.
Voters split on whether Harris or Trump would do a better job on the economy: AP-NORC poll Josh Boak & Linley Sanders, Associated Press Going into November’s election, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has a decisive edge with the public on the economy, turning an issue that was once a clear strength for Trump into the equivalent of a political jump ball. Voters have a more positive view of Harris than Trump AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research With two months remaining until the general election, a larger share of registered voters believe Kamala Harris will win compared to Donald Trump. However, a fifth think both candidates have an equal shot at the White House. While registered voters are divided on whether Harris would make a good president, a slight majority think Trump would not.
Fox News Poll: Voters think Harris did better than Trump in debate Victoria Balara, Fox News It’s been over a week since Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump squared off in the second presidential debate of the cycle (Harris’ first), and while voters aren’t thrilled with either individual’s performance, they think Harris performed better.
Fox News Poll: Voters cite high prices as biggest motivator to vote Victoria Balara, Fox News As the economy remains the top overall issue for voters, a new Fox News national poll finds high prices will be the main factor driving them to cast ballots this fall, as an increasing number say grocery prices and housing costs are tough for their family.
Americans prefer more, not less, regulation of dozens of major industries Taylor Orth, YouGov Support for increased regulation is high for many industries, including AI, pharmaceuticals, social media, firearms, and health insurance. For each of the 40 industries asked about, more Americans say they support increasing regulation than say they support decreasing it.
Americans in both parties are concerned over the impact of AI on the 2024 presidential campaign Shanay Gracia, Pew Research Center Amid growing unease over the role of artificial intelligence in everyday life, a majority of Americans say they are concerned about the impact of AI on the 2024 presidential campaign. Americans also express little confidence in major technology companies to prevent misuse of their platforms to influence the election. Who Do Voters Really Like? Taylor Swift. Rebecca Davis O’Brien and Christine Zhang, New York Times [unlocked] The pop star Taylor Swift has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris — and is far more popular among Democrats and independents than Republicans.
Drop in Support for ‘Swifties’ GOTV Monmouth University Polling Institute Just over half (53%) of American voters approve of Taylor Swift encouraging her fans to vote in the upcoming election, as she did in a social media post immediately after last week’s presidential debate that also endorsed Kamala Harris for president. Interestingly, support for the singer’s get-out-the-vote efforts were much higher seven months ago, when she was the subject of a debunked conspiracy theory around the election and the Super Bowl. How has the country changed during Joe Biden's presidency? Taylor Orth, YouGov Presidents often are judged by whether things are seen as having improved or worsened during their years in office. Unfortunately for Joe Biden, few Americans have a positive view of how the country has changed since he became president in January 2021. Vice President Harris’ Favorability is Net Positive, While Former President Trump’s Is Underwater By Double-digits Rachael Russell, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report contains polling data on perceptions of the political landscape, including reactions to the presidential debate, and what Americans perceive as Congress’ primary focus. Voters Overwhelmingly Support a Range of Solutions to Address the Housing Crisis Anika Dandekar, Data for Progress New national polling conducted by Data for Progress, in collaboration with Center for American Progress, reveals that large majorities of voters think housing affordability is worsening and that federal policies have an important role to play in addressing this issue. Voters — Especially Young Ones — Want Biden to Keep Fighting to Cancel Student Loan Debt Data for Progress New Data for Progress polling, fielded last week, finds a majority of voters say that Biden should “continue fighting to cancel student loan debt,” including 69% of voters under 45. Only 24% of voters under 45 disagree. Swing State Opportunity: Room to Grow With Non-College Women Blueprint Blueprint’s latest deep dive into swing state voters reveals that non-college women across the Rust Belt and Sun Belt could be the key to winning this election. Our polling shows that the views of swing-state non-college women are more closely aligned with the overall views of swing-state voters than any other group, showing that winning over this demographic could mean winning the seven coveted swing states. The Case For More Kamala: Harris’s Interviews Winning Over Voters, Closing Knowledge Gap Blueprint In some circles, the most critical question of the election is whether Vice President Harris should do more press interviews. In a new poll, Blueprint is offering its two cents on this hotly contested issue, presenting respondents with clips from Vice President Harris’s recent interviews with CNN and 6ABC, a local Philadelphia news station. Pennsylvania: Franklin & Marshall College Poll Berwood Yost, Center for Opinion Research, Franklin & Marshall College Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 49% to 46% in a multi-candidate race, with third party candidates and leaning voters included. Senator Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick 48% to 40%, which is narrower than the advantage he held over McCormick in most of our prior polls. Harris and Trump essentially tied in Pennsylvania, Post poll finds Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin, Washington Post One week after a debate that Pennsylvania voters widely say Harris won, she is favored by 48 percent of both likely voters and registered voters, while Trump is supported by 47 percent of voters in both categories. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has the support of 47 percent of likely voters, while Republican challenger Dave McCormick is backed by 46 percent. Excluding third-party candidates, the two are tied at 48 percent each.
North Carolina: Harris, Trump Race Tighter Than Ever Carolina Journal In the first Carolina Journal Poll following the presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (entering the field just hours after the second assassination attempt), Trump’s lead has shrunk to 0.3 points – well within the poll’s ±3.99% margin of error. This statistical tie reflects a reduction in Trump’s lead over Harris by 2.8 points. The Democratic Party’s gubernatorial candidate, Josh Stein (45.5%), has expanded his lead in the race against Republican Mark Robinson (39.2%).
Massachusetts: Warren Comfortably Ahead in Senate Re-Election Bid University of New Hampshire Survey Center Incumbent Senator Elizabeth Warren holds a comfortable lead over Republican nominee John Deaton in the race for U.S. Senate. New Hampshire: Craig, Ayotte Neck-And-Neck in Governor Race; Dems Hold Advantage in Races for Congress University of New Hampshire Survey Center Joyce Craig and Kelly Ayotte are tied in the race to replace outgoing Governor Chris Sununu. Democrat Maggie Goodlander leads Republican Lily Tang Williams in New Hampshire's Second Congressional District while incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas leads Republican Russell Prescott in the First Congressional District. Rhode Island: Whitehouse Leads Morgan in Senate Race University of New Hampshire Survey Center Sheldon Whitehouse leads Republican nominee Patricia Morgan by double-digits in the race for U.S. Senate. New York: Harris Leads Trump by 13 Points Siena College Research Institute Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 55-42% among likely voters, little changed from 53-39% last month. In a multi-candidate horserace, Harris leads Trump 52-40% (49-37% in August), with three percent for the minor party candidates, according to a Siena College poll of New York State likely voters. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand maintains a 23-point lead over her Republican opponent, Mike Sapraicone. Governor Kathy Hochul has a 34-54% favorability rating, and her job approval rating falls to 39-56%. Montana 1 Poll: Tranel and Tester on the Edge Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections Montana’s Ryan Zinke — a onetime rising star with a military background, two statewide victories, and a stint as Interior Secretary — was nearly denied in his attempt to return to Congress from Big Sky County by attorney and former Olympian Monica Tranel. Now Tranel is back for a rematch, and while the race isn’t flying under the radar as it did two years ago, it looks just as competitive, according to a new poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections. 10 undecided voters explain why they haven’t picked a side in this election Domenico Montanaro, NPR News With the presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as close as it is, the small percentage of undecided voters could have a big impact on the outcome. Making sense of the new polls seven weeks from Election Day Mark Murray, NBC News Democrats are in a stronger position after the Sept. 10 debate. But most surveys do still show the Harris-Trump race within their margins of error.
How the debate did — and didn’t — help Harris Aaron Blake, Washington Post A deep dive on a blitz of new polling since last week’s debate. It’s mostly good for Harris, but the race hasn’t shifted too much. More voters expect Harris to win. Here’s why that could actually matter. Aaron Blake, Washington Post Some research suggests that people are pretty good at predicting these things, for a few reasons. Trump campaign courts younger men to make up losses with women voters Isaac Arnsdorf, Marianne LeVine and Ashley Parker, Washington Post The competition for undecided men under 50 has drawn both campaigns to podcast interviews and video game apps. It carries risks for the GOP nominee. What Taylor Swift’s Endorsement Tells Us About the Youth Gender Gap Daniel Cox & Kelsey Eyre Hammond, American Storylines Celebrity endorsements rarely matter, but they can tell us a lot about the state of our politics Don't let randomness make a fool of you Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin If you care about what happens in this election, don’t sweat the polls — go vote. The Actual Electoral Map Is Three States Jonathan Martin, Politico Magazine If the former president wins the East Coast trio of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, he will go back to the White House. How JD Vance’s Combative Conservatism Is Shaping Trumpism 2.0 Michael C. Bender, New York Times [unlocked] Donald Trump’s running mate has been leaning in on the lessons of ultra-online political rabble rousing. ‘Uncommitted’ Group Says It Won’t Endorse Harris Over Gaza Concerns Erica L. Green, New York Times [unlocked] The Uncommitted National Movement, the national group that mobilized hundreds of thousands of primary voters to cast protest ballots against President Biden over the United States’ support for Israel in the war in Gaza, announced Thursday that it would not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for president. How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024 Mary Radcliffe and Nathaniel Rakich, 538 Our first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states. Energy Abundance, Not Climate Action, Is the Road Forward for Harris Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot Time to break decisively with the Green New Deal. Republicans pour money into attacking Texas Democrats on LGBTQ+ issues ahead of Election Day Matthew Choi, Texas Tribune Congressional Republicans will spend millions on television ads this fall targeting Texas Democrats for supporting pro-LGBTQ+ legislation — a bet that issue will resonate more than the border or economy. Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We continue to view the race for the chamber as effectively a 50-50 proposition. America’s political system is under stress as voters and their leaders navigate unfamiliar terrain Steve Peoples, Associated Press This year’s campaign for the White House was always going to be fraught, the first presidential election to play out in the wake of an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, an act of political violence steeped in the lie that the 2020 election was stolen. But a series of unnerving developments has crystalized the volatility coursing through the country in the final weeks of the 2024 campaign.
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PLAYLIST
Six Weeks to Go The Daily As the presidential race enters its final 45 days, we assemble a campaign round table with our colleagues from the politics desk. Maggie Haberman, Shane Goldmacher and Nate Cohn interpret this week’s biggest developments.
Confidence in Mass Media The Gallup Podcast The media are among the institutions in which Gallup has documented the greatest loss in public confidence. The trend -- which predates the Watergate scandal -- paints a picture of an institution that was once highly revered and is now hardly trusted. Is this crisis in confidence unique to the U.S.? What role is technology playing in the decline in confidence in the media? And could local media provide a glimmer of hope for the industry?
Has Harris Changed The Election For Black Voters? 538 Politics Earlier this year, it seemed like the long-standing pattern of Black voters as steadfast Democrats was shifting, with a record-high percentage choosing former President Donald Trump in survey after survey. However, Vice President Kamala Harris's candidacy has sparked new enthusiasm among Black voters, boosting both engagement and her popularity. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen examines these shifts with Chryl Laird, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland, and Kiana Cox, a senior researcher at the Pew Research Center, exploring the evolving political landscape and what Harris's run means for Black voter dynamics.
What Harris Learned From Clinton’s 2016 Election Strategy Wall Street Journal Vice President Kamala Harris’s rapid climb to the top of Democratic ticket has thrown gender into the center of the 2024 presidential election race against former president Donald Trump. But Harris’s tactic is different from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
‘On a razor’s edge’: Reporter reacts to new Trump-Harris polling that reveals tight race CNN CNN’s Senior Political Data Reporter Harry Enten explains what new polling tells about former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris' standing in the 2024 presidential race.