Opinion Weekend
September 21-22, 2024
Women Voters 50+ See the Economy Worsening Despite What Economists and Politicians Say Kate Bridges, AARP Most women voters 50-plus say elected officials are not addressing the financial challenges they face, according to a recent AARP survey. The majority of women voters 50 and over are increasingly worried about the country’s economic challenges, with eight in 10 expecting housing and grocery prices to get worse in the next year. Conducted with bipartisan pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and Margie Omero, the national poll shows Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 12 points among women voters 50-plus (54% vs. 42%), compared to a narrower 3 point lead she carries among voters overall. How impactful will immigration be in the election? Clifford Young & Bernard Mendez, Ipsos Five charts on where Americans stand when it comes to immigration, how Americans feel about various immigration policies, and how varying media silos could amplify the issue of immigration heading into the election
Voters Love the Policies That Economists Love to Hate Paul Kiernan, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The Wall Street Journal’s recent poll asked 750 registered voters about the presidential candidates’ proposed economic policies. Then, at the Journal’s request, the University of Chicago’s Clark Center put exactly the same questions to a panel of 39 top academic economists.
Our 2024 Presidential Model Split Ticket Until now, we have created our presidential forecast using a data-informed, qualitative approach. To make our predictions more statistically rigorous and internally consistent, we decided to develop a quantitative model for the 2024 presidential election. Our model gives Kamala Harris a 62% chance of winning the election. In other words, Harris is a slight favorite, but the race is still quite close.
