CNN Poll: Harris and Trump locked in exceedingly close presidential race Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Edward Wu, CNN The race for president between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is exceedingly close, with Harris’ support resting on stronger personal appeal, while Trump draws on a die-hard base and a wide advantage on handling the economy to run about even despite less positive views of him, his empathy and temperament.
2024 Presidential Race: Can't Get Much Closer Quinnipiac University Poll With 41 days until Election Day, the presidential race remains too close to call as former President Donald Trump receives 48 percent support among likely voters, Vice President Kamala Harris receives 47 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each receive 1 percent support. Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of likely voters say they would like to see a second debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, while 31 percent say they would not like to see a second debate. Morning Consult Tracking: Harris leads Trump by 5 percentage points Cameron Easley & Eli Yokley, Morning Consult Harris leads Trump by 5 percentage points among likely voters, 50% to 45%, down from a 6-point lead last week. Likely voters are 9 points more likely to view Harris favorably than unfavorably (53% to 44%), a record high that continues a significant advantage that has expanded over Trump, who is 8 points underwater (45% to 53%), since she launched her campaign in July. CBS News Trump v. Harris poll: How much does candidate likability — or unlikability — matter? Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News Being seen as likable matters more for Kamala Harris than it does for Donald Trump. When voters express positive views about either candidate's behavior or personal traits, they are overwhelmingly backing them in similarly huge numbers. But what about when they don't like the candidates?
Half of voters plan to cast ballots early, with a huge partisan split Ben Kamisar, NBC News The new NBC News poll shows 51% of registered voters saying they plan to vote early, with that group breaking hard for Harris and Election Day voters backing Trump.
Misinformation About Immigrants in the 2024 Presidential Election Shannon Schumacher, Alex Montero, and Liz Hamel, KFF As part of KFF’s ongoing effort to identify and track misinformation in the U.S., the latest KFF Health Misinformation Tracking Poll examines claims about immigrants that have circulated during the 2024 presidential election cycle.
US Consumer Confidence Fell in September Conference Board The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in September to 98.7 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August. CNN Poll: Harris leads Trump among young voters but falls short of Biden’s 2020 winning margin Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 12-point lead over former President Donald Trump among voters younger than 35 – a group that’s largely dissatisfied with the influence it holds in American politics, but remains optimistic about the country’s future, according to new CNN polling conducted by SSRS. Harris leads Trump 52% to 40% among these likely voters younger than 35. Harvard Youth Poll Institute of Politics, Harvard Kennedy School Kamala Harris holds a 23-point lead over Donald Trump among registered voters under 30 in a multi-candidate matchup; among likely voters, the Vice President's lead extends to 31 points. A majority of young Americans report that they will "definitely" vote; young Democrats are more engaged than Republicans and independents. Harris dominates Trump on personal qualities and the key issues facing young Americans in 2024.
Water Is a Common Concern in Gen Z's Climate Outlook Andrea Malek Ash, Gallup A majority of Gen Zers from both political parties worry about water pollution and the health of fish and oceans In Tight U.S. Presidential Race, Latino Voters’ Preferences Mirror 2020 Mark Hugo Lopez & Luis Noe-Bustamante, Pew Research Center As the final leg of the presidential campaign begins following an eventful summer, a majority of Latino registered voters (57%) say they would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris and 39% would vote for former President Donald Trump, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Aug. 26-Sept. 2, 2024. Harris performs substantially better among Latino voters than President Joe Biden did when he was the likely Democratic nominee.
APIA Vote/AAPI Data survey: Harris Leads Trump by 38 Points among Asian American Voters Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote / AAPI Data Among Asian American voters, Harris leads Trump by 38 percentage points, expanding Biden’s 15-point lead by 23 percentage points since the Spring. Harris’ favorability among Asian American voters increases 18 points since the Spring; Tim Walz is far more popular as a vice presidential candidate than JD Vance. Harris is more popular than Trump among AAPI voters, a new APIA Vote/AAPI Data survey finds Terry Tang & Linley Sanders, Associated Press Vice President Kamala Harris is viewed more favorably by Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander registered voters than former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll. AAPI voters are also more likely to believe that she is the candidate who better represents their background and policy views.
September Survey: Raising support in a race Harris is narrowly winning Democracy Corps Democracy Corps conducted a web survey of 2,710 voters from September 13 to September 19, 2024, in key battlegrounds for the presidential, House, and Senate races. The data includes a representative sample of 1,414 registered voters and oversamples of Black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters, weighted to reflect the projected 2024 electorate.
Trust in Elections: What’s At Stake & Americans’ Attitudes Ahead of 2024 Issue One As the 2024 election approaches, a new survey from Issue One conducted by GQR and Redbud Consulting (N=1,500; fielded September 3-9, 2024) reveals sharp divides among Americans regarding trust in elections, with gaps in trust along partisan, gender, and educational measures. Lower Engaged Americans View Harris More Favorably Than Both Trump and Biden Rachael Russell, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report contains analysis from data collected over the last year measuring political engagement, specifically the importance of politics to personal identity and where those across engagement fall on the partisan spectrum and view elected officials. Potential “Concepts” of a Republican Health Care Plan Are Widely Unpopular Rob Todaro, Data for Progress A new Data for Progress survey tested different concepts that could be included in a Republican health care plan, based on the party’s 2017 policy proposals to repeal the ACA and excerpts from the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. Michigan: Kamala Harris holds small lead over Donald Trump Michael Collins & Terry Collins, USA Today Vice President Kamala Harris has a small lead over former President Donald Trump in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. With just six weeks until the election, Harris leads Trump in Michigan by three points, 48% to 45%, the statewide poll of 500 likely voters found. Rhode Island: Harris has 12% lead over Trump Nancy Lavin, Rhode Island Current Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a 12-percentage-point lead over former President Donald Trump among Rhode Island voters, who are taking concerns over the economy and immigration to the ballot box, according to a new Rhode Island Current poll. The poll, conducted by the MassINC Polling Group and funded by a grant from the Knight Election Hub, surveyed 800 likely voters from Sept. 12 to 18. California Elections and Policy Polls CSU Long Beach, USC, Cal Poly Pomona We polled six of the most competitive congressional districts between Democrats and Republicans in California. Democratic U.S. House candidates lead in 4 of 6 of these congressional districts, are tied in a fifth, and a Republican House candidate is winning in 1 of 6 of these districts. Republicans are more likely to believe false claims about immigrants Philip Bump, Washington Post A third of immigrants — and nearly half of those from Asia — say Trump’s false claims about them have had a negative effect.
Republicans’ Electoral College Edge, Once Seen as Ironclad, Looks to Be Fading Nate Cohn, New York Times [unlocked] A review of the evidence that Donald Trump’s advantage relative to the national popular vote has declined significantly.
This could be the closest presidential election since 1876 G. Elliott Morris, 538 But a normal polling error could also result in one candidate winning easily. Popular Reactions to Donald Trump’s Indictments and Trials and their Implications for the 2024 Election Gary Jacobson (UC San Diego), APSA Preprints The sharp momentum shifts in the presidential contest during the summer of 2024—induced by Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, Donald Trump’s attempted assassination, Biden’s withdrawal and the subsequent surge in support for Kamala Harris—have overshadowed the most striking feature of the 2024 election: Donald Trump’s return from exile in Mar-a-Lago to win easy nomination and a serious chance of returning to the White House despite the ignominy of the January 6, 2021, Capitol invasion, felony indictments in four jurisdictions (with convictions on all 34 counts in one of them), and losses in three civil suits since his departure from the White House 2021. This paper documents and attempts to explain this reality through analysis of hundreds of surveys probing reactions to Trump’s criminal charges and civil suits, with an eye to gauging their potential role in shaping voting choices in 2024. Americans are more worried about political violence under Trump Philip Bump, Washington Post [unlocked] New polling from CNN suggests that the effort to draw equivalence between right and left isn’t yet working. Kamala Harris Has Young Voter Energy. But Does She Have the Young Voters? Tinashe Chingarande, NOTUS Despite a wave of youth voter enthusiasm, it’s unclear if that’s translating to actual votes for Harris. Trump keeps talking about criminalizing dissent Aaron Blake, Washington Post [unlocked] For someone who has so strongly objected in recent weeks to the idea that he’s an authoritarian or a threat to democracy, Donald Trump has a funny way of showing it. Trump Is an Open Book for Closed Minds Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times The mystery of 2024: How is it possible that Donald Trump has a reasonable chance of winning the presidency despite all that voters now know about him? Why hasn’t a decisive majority risen up to deny a second term to a man in line to be judged the worst president in American history? Trump's Truth Social posts are even worse than you think Charlie Warzel, The Atlantic [unlocked] Like many reporters, I’d been aware that the former president’s social-media posts had, like his rally speeches, grown progressively angrier, more erratic, and more bizarre in recent years. Having consumed enough Trump rhetoric over the past decade to melt my frontal cortex, I’ve grown accustomed to his addled style of communication. And yet, I still wasn’t adequately prepared for the immersive experience of scrolling through hundreds of his Truths and ReTruths. Anti-Abortion Voters Turn to JD Vance for Reassurance Oriana González, NOTUS As Trump continues to be vague about abortion, his VP candidate has been clear that the anti-abortion movement has a “seat at the table” with the potential administration. How Powerful Is Political Charm? Joshua Rothman, The New Yorker Kamala Harris has energized Democrats with her personality, but charm in politics may be more limited and volatile than we think. Why the Election Is Coming Down to Defining Kamala Harris Kristen Soltis Anderson, New York Times The battle to win over the remaining undecided voters in the 2024 presidential election looks as though it’s coming down to which campaign can successfully define Kamala Harris; look no further than the ads you see on TV in battleground states. These Voters Are Anti-Trump, but Will They Be Pro-Harris? Katie Glueck, New York Times Democrats see an opportunity to win over right-leaning Americans who have recoiled from Donald Trump. The challenge is coaxing them off the sidelines. The Black Box of the Undecided Voter Won’t Yield Its Secrets Jamelle Bouie, New York Times There’s a chance these voters aren’t undecided at all. Rather, they are a portion of the large segment of Americans who don’t see politics as an interest worth having. Mark Robinson Scandal in North Carolina Injects Chaos Into Presidential Race Valerie Bauerlein, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The deciding factor in the crucial swing state could be the Black, reportedly proslavery Republican gubernatorial candidate who refuses to step aside Democrats are becoming a force in traditionally conservative The Villages Rebecca Blackwell, Associated Press The Villages, one of the world’s largest retirement communities, has long been known as a conservative stronghold. In the past, left-leaning residents of the central Florida enclave tended to keep their views to themselves, fearing they might be kicked out of their golf group, excluded from the mahjong club, or disinvited from a neighborhood pool party. But Vice President Kamala Harris’ emergence as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate has given the small, but enthusiastic group a boost of confidence and a push into the light. What polling says about key 2024 Senate races Geoffrey Skelley and G. Elliott Morris, 538 538 has released Senate polling averages for the general election. How Are California’s Competitive Congressional Districts Changing? Eric McGhee & Jennifer Paluch, Public Policy Institute of California While California may not be a battleground in presidential elections, it’s home to some of the nation’s most hotly contested congressional races. With partisan control of the House of Representatives hanging in the balance, California’s races will help determine the national political context moving forward. When we examined voter registration in these key districts, a surprising pattern emerged: a small but significant number of California voters are switching parties—and Republicans are benefitting. Latest strategy in fighting election skepticism: Radical transparency Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, Washington Post [unlocked] Many jurisdictions now monitor election equipment with GPS trackers, video-record ballot counting and open their headquarters for tours. Why we see dozens of Harris vs. Trump polls every week Natalie Jackson (GQR Research), National Journal [unlocked] We’re into that fun part of fall when temperatures are slowly dropping, apples are ripening, pumpkin spice everything is everywhere, and football season has hit its stride. And public polls are piling up faster than the leaves in your driveway. How YouGov's MRP model works for the 2024 U.S. presidential and congressional elections Delia Bailey & Douglas Rivers, YouGov A guide to the methodology behind YouGov's use of multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to project how Americans will vote in the 2024 election.
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PLAYLIST
"Cool Poll, Crypto Bro" with Molly White Cross Tabs This week we're taking a break from national polling to talk about polling done by a group trying hard to influence the outcome of various races this cycle: crypto bros. The influence and agenda of the crypto industry is lurking behind a lot of the candidates and their policy positions. Crypto PACs are raising and spending over $100 million on 2024 races. It's in crypto's interests to portray itself as representing a large voting bloc who will vote based on a candidate's position on crypto — via industry-funded polls making claims about American's crypto behavior and beliefs. They seem to be cutting through: the RNC adopted an entire plank of crypto-industry pet positions into their party platform. Who better to talk through these polls, PACs, and policy positions than cryptoresearcher Molly White. She joins me to break down the way the industry is trying to persuade through polls, and why we need more journalists and politicos to bring a much higher level of scrutiny to industry polling.
What Pete Buttigieg Learned Playing JD Vance The Ezra Klein Show America has become increasingly polarized when it comes to trust. Voters who distrust the system — who see institutions as corrupt and are prone to conspiracy theories — have long existed on the far left and far right. But Donald Trump seems to have sparked a realignment, what the writer Matthew Yglesias calls “the crank realignment.” The G.O.P. is now the political home of the distrustful, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Trump endorsement was a clear sign of these changing times. In 2020, Pete Buttigieg wrote a book on trust in politics. And he’s been persistent in making the case — in speeches, on TV — for what he calls “a better kind of politics.” So I wanted to talk to him about his theory of politics. Why does he think so many Americans have lost trust in the government? What responsibility does the Democratic Party have here? And how does he believe trust can be restored?
The Battle for 3 Million Undecided Voters New York Times Approximately three million undecided voters in seven battleground states will most likely decide the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, and surveys show that these voters are pessimistic about the country’s future. Jonathan Swan, a reporter covering the presidential campaign for The New York Times, examines how these voters are responding to Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump.