Swing State Polling Finds Deadlocked Presidential Contest, ‘Blue Wall’ Senate Races Tighten Amy Walter & Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report A new Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group (September 19-25; 2,941 voters), shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states. Overall, she holds a narrow lead of 49% to 48% in a two-way matchup.
Harris holds slight lead over Trump nationally Ipsos A new Ipsos poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in the presidential race, unchanged from polling conducted among this same group of Americans in August.
Harris' steady lead, VP debate, the media, the filibuster, and Eric Adams: September 29 - October 1, 2024, Economist/YouGov Poll Kathy Frankovic & David Montgomery, YouGov This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the election, the possibility of a woman winning the presidency, the candidates, campaign media coverage, Congress, the filibuster, and Eric Adams.
Dead even: POLITICO snap poll shows stark division on debate Melanie Mason, Politico The results reflect the country’s hyper-polarized politics. Party Divisions in Views of Supreme Court Keep Ratings Low Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup Americans’ evaluations of the U.S. Supreme Court remain near historical lows as the institution prepares to begin its 2024-2025 term. Depressed ratings of the high court are driven largely by exceedingly low trust (24%) and job approval (15%) among Democrats. These low ratings have contributed to a record 47-percentage-point party gap in trust in the federal judicial branch and near-record 57-point gap in Supreme Court job approval.
Trust in U.S. Supreme Court Continues to Sink Annenberg Public Policy Center, University of Pennsylvania Driven by political partisanship, public trust in the U.S. Supreme Court has continued a downward slide since the court’s 2022 Dobbs decision overturning the Roe v. Wade ruling that established a constitutional right to abortion, according to a new survey by the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.
🎶 Go Your Own Waaayyyy 🎶: Kamala and Joe in the Final Stretch Blueprint On the heels of a national ad and a multi-million dollar swing state ad buy tying Vice President Kamala Harris to President Joe Biden, the Trump campaign’s closing strategy is coming into focus. So Blueprint took a look at two questions: Does Harris need to further distance herself from President Biden? And if so, how can she best do it? Here’s what we found. Climate change and the voters Stack Data Strategy In partnership with American Conservation Coalition Action, a non-profit advocacy organization dedicated to mobilizing the conservative environmental movement, Stack Data Strategy asked a series of environmental and economic questions relating to the election in a recent national poll of 4,819 registered voters across the United States. Three in Five Believe Republican Tax Policies Favor the Wealthy Maryann Cousens, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report contains polling data on the latest perceptions of taxes and the economy, including which party is more trusted to handle a range of economic issues and who Americans believe benefit from tax policies. A Majority of Americans Now Oppose Project 2025 Jenalyn Dizon, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report contains polling data on the latest perceptions of Project 2025, including levels of support for Project 2025, whether Americans believe Project 2025 accurately represents what Republicans in Congress stand for, and what policies Americans associate most with Project 2025. Arizona: Harris, Trump remain tied; GOP winning independents Dennis Welch, Arizona’s Family Vice President Kamala Harris is running neck and neck with former President Donald Trump in the key battleground state of Arizona, according to a new poll by Arizona’s Family and public affairs firm HighGround.
Wisconsin: Presidential choices hold steady Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris supported by 52% and Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 48% in head-to-head matchups among both registered voters and among likely voters. In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 53% to Eric Hovde’s 46% among registered voters. Among likely voters, the results are the same.
Virginia: Harris’ edge over Trump slips slightly VCU Wilder School With Virginians already voting in the presidential election, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leads Republican nominee Donald Trump 43% to 37%. This is a slight dip in support compared with last month’s VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll, which had Harris leading Trump 46% to 36%. South Carolina: September 2024 Winthrop Poll Winthrop University With just over a month left until the 2024 Presidential election, 52% of likely voters in South Carolina would vote for Donald Trump and 42% would vote for Kamala Harris. Nearly half of South Carolinians (47%) think it is either very likely or somewhat likely that the United States will undergo another civil war in the near future. North Dakota: Republicans look set for sweep of top races Michael Standaert, ND News Cooperative The race for U.S. Senate between Republican incumbent Sen. Kevin Cramer and Democratic-NPL challenger Katrina Christiansen is tightening, but not likely enough for an upset if the numbers continue to play out. Results from the North Dakota Poll also show North Dakotans favoring other Republican candidates, including Kelly Armstrong for Governor, Julie Fedorchak for U.S. House, and Donald Trump for president. What early polls say about who won the VP debate Nathaniel Rakich, 538 Americans are split over whether Vance or Walz won. Vance probably ‘won’ the debate. But Walz might have gained more. Aaron Blake, Washington Post [unlocked] A dive into the nuanced instant post-debate polling. The V.P. Debate Might Boost Vance and Walz, but It Probably Won’t Shift the Polls Kaleigh Rogers, New York Times Voters may view JD Vance and Tim Walz more positively after Tuesday’s debate. But it’s unlikely to have much impact on their choices for president. A civil debate? Now that’s an October surprise David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call Something weird happened in last night’s high stakes vice presidential debate. The country expected another unpleasant rhetorical rumble, but instead saw two political candidates engage in a civil discourse focused, for the most part, on policy. 7 things I think I think about the vice presidential debate Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call I used to be a debate skeptic. I was skeptical that debates changed the trajectory of elections. But after President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump squared off in one of the most consequential debates in history on June 27, and considering the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is incredibly close, the vice presidential debate became must-watch television. J. D. Vance Tries to Rewrite History David A. Graham, The Atlantic [unlocked] In the vice-presidential debate, the Republican claimed that Trump “peacefully gave over power on January 20.” Is Tim Walz bringing vibes to a knife fight? Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin JD Vance revealed Democratic weaknesses — but they may not matter. Vance’s debate performance was a breathtaking exercise in sane-washing E.J. Dionne Jr., Washington Post JD Vance showed that he understands how unpopular his ticket’s positions are. JD Vance turned in a debate performance that was a true master class — in gaslighting Robin Abcarian, Los Angeles Times [via Yahoo] You may have expected nice from Tim Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota, Midwestern Everydad and running mate to Vice President Kamala Harris. A former high school teacher and assistant football coach, the guy’s a good egg. But what the heck was going on with former President Trump’s running mate, Ohio Republican Sen. JD Vance? JD Vance is Trump 2.0 Philip Bump, Washington Post [unlocked] The senator from Ohio carries all of Trump’s politics and far less of his baggage. What Exactly Are We Fighting About? John Halpin, The Liberal Patriot The election is more a culture war than a battle over competing policies and issues. Hurricane Helene Scrambles Campaign Calculus for Harris and Trump Annie Linskey, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Devastation in two crucial swing states means candidates have to show command and empathy without appearing to politicize a disaster If Trump Wins, Could He Really Use the Justice Department to Jail His Rivals? Emily Bazelon, Marco Hernandez, Mattathias Schwartz and Bill Marsh, New York Times Magazine [unlocked] It has become commonplace for Donald Trump to talk about how he will use the Justice Department to punish his enemies should he regain the presidency. How might a politically motivated prosecution actually unfold? The steps below show exactly how Trump could make his threats real — all while staying within the constitutional limits on presidential power. The Supreme Court Tanked Its Reputation. This Is the Way Back. Noah Feldman, Bloomberg Opinion [unlocked] The legitimacy crisis is getting worse. But it’s not too late to revive faith in America’s highest court.
A Pair of Billionaire Preachers Built the Most Powerful Political Machine in Texas. That’s Just the Start. Ava Kofman, ProPublica Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks are poised to take their Christian nationalist agenda nationwide. Elon Musk Gave Tens of Millions to Republican Causes Far Earlier Than Previously Known Dana Mattioli, Joe Palazzolo and Khadeeja Safdar, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The donations were to groups with ties to former Trump aide Stephen Miller and to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s presidential bid Abortion Rights, Elections, Criminal Justice, and Much More: The 2024 State Ballot Issues to Watch Louis Jacobson, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Once again this year, voters in most states will face at least one question—and in many cases, multiple questions—on their November ballot. Overall, 41 states will present their voters with ballot measures, a mix of proposals that have made their way to the ballot either by being placed by legislators or by citizens following signature-gathering efforts. The Misogyny of Gen Z Men Has Been Overstated Jessica Grose, New York Times The majority of them support equality, even if they don’t call themselves feminists. Pollsters are weighting surveys differently in 2024. Does it matter? Brian Schaffner & Caroline Soler (Tufts), Good Authority Adjusting election polls by education and past vote has become more common.
Asking About Race and Ethnicity: A Wording Experiment Jenny Marlar, Jon Schreiner and Ellyn Maese, Gallup Changes to federal standards may affect data, analysis
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The Fight for Rural America The Run-Up Tim Walz, a former high school football coach from a tiny town, has folksy sayings and a camo cap. JD Vance shot to fame with “Hillbilly Elegy,” aiming to speak for parts of rural America that felt left behind. Both parties — especially with their vice-presidential candidates — are trying to convey to rural Americans that they are not forgotten. This comes after Democrats have seen significant erosion of support in rural areas. In the wake of the vice-presidential debate, The Run-Up looks at how both parties are trying to reach rural voters — with their vice-presidential candidates and their messages.
How Algorithms, Money, & Bureaucracy Distance us from Democracy The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart With the election just over a month away, Americans are caught between a flood of political promises and the reality that we live in a time of political dysfunction. Joining us this week to explore the root causes are Ezra Klein, opinion columnist at The New York Times, host of "The Ezra Klein Show" podcast, and author of "Why We're Polarized," alongside Tristan Harris, co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology and co-host of "Your Undivided Attention" podcast. We examine how engagement-driven metrics and algorithms shape public discourse, fueling demagoguery and widening the gap between political rhetoric and public needs.
VP Debate: Civility survives, after years of vitriol; plus Matt Grossmann talks education divide The Chuck ToddCast Gov. Walz and Sen. Vance debated for the Vice Presidency. Matt Grossmann, author of “Polarized by Degrees” talks about how the Democratic and Republican parties have been reshaped by divides over education.
Voters in Michigan react to Vance-Walz debate CBS News Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz faced off at CBS News' vice presidential debate Tuesday night. CBS News national correspondent Jericka Duncan sat down with some voters in Grand Rapids, Michigan, to gauge their thoughts on the match-up.
VP debate viewers split on who won, CBS News poll finds CBS News The vice presidential nominees were civil as they sparred during the CBS News debate Tuesday night. So who do voters think did a better job? Anthony Salvanto, CBS News executive director of elections and surveys, Shelby Talcott, politics reporter for Semafor, and Fin Gómez, CBS News political director, join with more.
Election officials ramp up security to protect poll workers NBC News Election officials are increasing security, including bulletproof glass and bulletproof doors, to protect poll workers ahead of the presidential election. This comes as election workers say they have faced threats and harassment.