Voters See a Choice Between Character, Leadership Skill Lydia Saad, Gallup Recent ratings of the 2024 presidential candidates’ personal qualities show Vice President Kamala Harris with a strong advantage over former President Donald Trump in U.S. voter perceptions of being likable, while holding smaller leads for having strong moral character and being honest and trustworthy. Trump outpaces Harris in perceptions of being a strong and decisive leader and being able to get things done.
The Harris lead, VP debate, hurricanes, health care, and Pete Rose: October 6 - 7, 2024, Economist/YouGov Poll Kathy Frankovic & David Montgomery, YouGov This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the latest on the election, the VP debate, hurricanes, the economy, health care, war in the Middle East, and Pete Rose.
I&I/TIPP Poll: Trump Vs. Harris Still Knotted Up, But Voters Prefer Trump Policies On Big Election Issues Terry Jones, tippinsights In the national online poll of 997 likely voters taken from Oct. 2-4, former President Trump garnered 46% support while Vice President Harris received 49% in a head-to-head matchup.
In the midst of a tight presidential race, Trump draws support from voters disillusioned with democracy McCourtney Institute for Democracy, Pennsylvania State University The McCourtney Institute for Democracy’s new Mood of the Nation Poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a close race for the national popular vote. Forty-eight percent of the likely electorate plans to vote for Harris, while 45 percent plan to vote for Trump. Yahoo News/YouGov border poll: Voters say Trump would do a ‘better job’ on immigration — but they prefer Harris’s plans Andrew Romano, Yahoo News More voters continue to believe that former President Donald Trump would do a better job handling immigration (51%) than Vice President Kamala Harris (38%), according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll. But when asked about specific immigration policies, the same voters tend to prefer Harris’s plans over Trump’s.
Why Asian Immigrants Come to the U.S. and How They View Life Here Pew Research Center 74% say they’d move to the U.S. again if they could, but a majority says the nation’s immigration system needs significant changes
Nikki Haley Voters in Focus: Cross-Pressured, Frustrated, Up for Grabs Blueprint In the final innings before Election Day, it’s clear that the race will come down to the final pitch—so Blueprint took a look at where Vice President Harris can pick up the potentially difference-making votes of Nikki Haley supporters. Our latest poll delves deep into the priorities and values of Haley voters—meaning Republicans, Republican-leaning independents, or true independents who voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican primary. The sample also includes Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who preferred Haley as the Republican nominee. After Hurricane Helene, Voters Want the U.S. to Expand Its Disaster Relief Marissa Farmer and Lew Blank, Data for Progress In a new survey, Data for Progress tested voters’ perceptions of key hurricane-related agencies, their levels of concern about hurricanes striking their area, the connection they draw between hurricanes and climate change, and their support for further disaster relief. Younger Americans Share Similar Issue Attitudes By Survey Mode, But Diverge on Partisanship and Vote Preference Bryan Bennett, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report is the fifth and final release among 4,000 Americans under the age of 35 across five different modes to understand where they stand on issues facing the nation today. Today’s release focuses on the actual methodology of this survey, including where there are similarities and differences among young Americans based on whether they responded to our survey via live phone, online panel, text to web, or in-platform social media recruitment. Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows Shane Goldmacher, New York Times [unlocked] The latest polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows Republicans leading in key Senate races in Montana, Texas and Florida.
Why Democratic Senate Control Seems to Be Slipping Away Nate Cohn, New York Times The math for Senate control is pretty simple. For Democrats, it isn’t adding up. Florida: Trump Leads Harris By 4 Points Marist Institute for Public Opinion Donald Trump (51%) is 4 points over Kamala Harris (47%) among likely voters in Florida. In the race for U.S. Senate, two points separate Republican incumbent Rick Scott (50%) and his Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (48%) among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.
Ohio: Trump Leads Harris By 6 Points Marist Institute for Public Opinion Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 6 points among Ohio likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. In the race for U.S Senate, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown receives the support of 50% of likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Republican challenger Bernie Moreno receives 48%. Texas: Trump with 7-Point Lead Marist Institute for Public Opinion Donald Trump (53%) leads Kamala Harris (46%) among likely voters. 51% of likely voters statewide say they support incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz for U.S. Senate. 46% support his Democratic challenger, Colin Allred. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Blue Wall Shows Cracks As Race Tightens Quinnipiac University Poll Less than a month until Election Day, the so-called Blue Wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show a tight presidential race where neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump is winning as all three states are too close to call. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger David McCormick 51% - 43%. The race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan is tied, with 48% of likely voters supporting Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and 48% of likely voters supporting former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin has a slight lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde 50% - 46% in Wisconsin. Swing State Survey: Majorities Favor Path to Citizenship over Mass Deportation, While Strengthening the Border Program for Public Consultation, University of Maryland As the issue of immigration figures prominently in campaigns across the country, a new survey by the Program for Public Consultation in six swing states and nationally finds numerous policies on which majorities of Americans agree, including, in most cases, majorities of both Republicans and Democrats. Focus Group Report: Georgians, Nevadans, and Wisconsinites on the State of Abortion Rights Rachael Russell, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report contains findings from focus groups among young Democrats in Georgia, independent men of color in Nevada, and white independents in Wisconsin on the latest perceptions of abortion rights in the country, including how they view the impact of Roe being overturned, and whether other reproductive health care is viewed as at risk. Pennsylvania 10th Congressional Voter Attitude Survey Susquehanna Polling & Research In SP&R’s latest congressional poll, Janelle Stelson (D) leads incumbent Scott Perry (R) by a margin of 48:39. Additionally, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 46:41 in a district Trump defeated Joe Biden in 2020 by a margin of 51:47. Pennsylvania's 7th CD: Susan Wild leads Ryan Mackenzie Lindsay Weber, Morning Call Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild leads Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie in the race for Congress in the Lehigh Valley-based 7th District, according to a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll. More Americans Identify as Republican Than Democrat. Here’s What That Means for the Election. Aaron Zitner, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Rare GOP advantage takes pressure off Trump to win over independent voters
Who Is Switching Political Parties in California? Eric McGhee & Jennifer Paluch, Public Policy Institute of California California, long known as a bastion of Democratic support, has recently experienced a subtle yet significant shift in its political landscape. Recent voter registration data reveals a slight reddening of the Golden State, with Republican registration increasing compared to the 2022 election, while both Democratic and No Party Preference—or independent—registrations have declined.
Defining ‘Close’ in the Context of the 2024 Election Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball You have heard it ad nauseam from us and many others who follow elections: This presidential election is close. The polling averages in the swing states are very close to tied, with Kamala Harris generally ahead by a hair in the northern battlegrounds and Nevada and Donald Trump generally ahead by a hair in the Sun Belt battlegrounds. What would constitute a surprise in 2024 would not be either Harris or Trump winning. Instead, the surprise would be if the election is not close and clearly breaks to one candidate or the other. But that also begs a question—what do we mean by “close?” Places to Watch, Part Two: The Sun Belt J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball In North Carolina, Kamala Harris seems likely to gain in suburban Cabarrus County but may have to watch rural counties like Wilson. While it is not the most likely case, two Georgia counties that have trended in the opposite direction, Fayette and Sumter, could both conceivably flip. While Phoenix’s Maricopa County dominates Arizona, raw vote margins in a trio of its other large counties have proved predictive. In Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno predominate. The swing-state counties hit by Hurricane Helene mostly voted for Trump in 2020 Domenico Montanaro, NPR News The key presidential states of Georgia and North Carolina were hit particularly hard by Hurricane Helene. NPR compared which counties qualify for FEMA aid with 2020 election results. The area is largely Republican. How could hurricanes impact the election? What we can learn from 5 recent storms Rachel Treisman, NPR News The election and Atlantic hurricane seasons are overlapping with dramatic effect, and not for the first time. Here's what we can learn from other storms that shaped elections, from Katrina to Maria. Look at Vote Share, Not Margin, for November Clues Nate Moore, The Liberal Patriot Could Rust Belt polling finally be accurate this year? Trump Is Laser-Focused on the Final Duel. Harris Is Not. Stanley B. Greenberg (Greenberg Research), American Prospect That will put Trump and Vance in the White House. The Evangelicals Calling for ‘Spiritual Warfare’ to Elect Trump Kris Maher and Aaron Zitner, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Lance Wallnau and other leaders of the New Apostolic Reformation believe that Democrats represent the ‘powers of darkness’ and see Trump as an anointed figure Inside Trump’s push to win over the ‘bro’ vote Alex Isenstadt, Politico Donald Trump is betting that support from young men will help propel him to the White House. And he’s getting an assist from a crew of pro-Trump millennial pranksters who are capitalizing on college football tailgates, Tinder and even the “Hawk Tuah Girl” podcast. The GOP Knows It Won’t ‘Turn Detroit Ruby Red.’ But It Sees an Opportunity With Black Voters in Michigan. Tinashe Chingarande, NOTUS “We don’t need to pick up a ton of points,” GOP Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan told NOTUS. “We just need to pick up some.” The Trump Believability Gap David A. Graham, The Atlantic [unlocked] Voters detest the things that Trump wants to do. But they just don’t believe he’ll follow through. Trump’s Remarks on Migrants Illustrate His Obsession With Genes Michael Gold, New York Times In discussing migrants and genes, the former president used language that reflected his decades-long belief that bloodlines determine a person’s capacity for success or violence. What I learned from Indian American voters in Georgia Bina Venkataraman, Washington Post Does identity matter in presidential elections? Trump Has Something He’d Like to Sell You Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times [unlocked] The former president’s history of merchandising himself may be broadly revealing in unexpected ways. Two ways in which the 2024 election has turned politicking upside down Philip Bump, Washington Post Can the incumbent party’s candidate be the one advocating change? Can a candidate energize his base by predicting victory? The relationship between presidential and Senate voting Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill During the 1984-88 Senate cycle of my polling youth, on average, Democratic Senate candidates outperformed their presidential nominee by over 9 points. By the 2018-22 Senate cycle, that average difference plummeted to 1.6 percentage points. Of course, averages can obscure as much as they illuminate. So, let’s dig a bit deeper into the data to capture some important nuance. How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024 Cooper Burton, Nathaniel Rakich, and Geoffrey Skelley, 538 North Carolina, New York, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana redrew their districts. 2024’s House Races Are As Close As the Presidential Contest Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine Thanks to a wildly favorable landscape, Republicans are very likely to flip control of the Senate in November. That means control of the House could determine if President Donald Trump has a governing trifecta with the power to do most of what Republicans want legislatively, or if President Kamala Harris has any leverage other than a veto pen in dealings with Congress. It could matter even earlier than Inauguration Day if Team Trump winds up trying to utilize a newly elected GOP congressional leadership to tamper with the presidential results as he attempted in 2020. The Great Immigration Public-Opinion Reversal Rogé Karma, The Atlantic Political scientists have long observed that public opinion tends to move in the opposite direction of a sitting president’s rhetoric, priorities, and policies, especially when that president is an especially polarizing figure—a phenomenon known as “thermostatic public opinion.” No president has kicked the thermostat into action quite like Trump. In response to his incendiary anti-immigrant rhetoric and harsh policies, including the Muslim ban and family separation, being pro-immigrant became central to Democratic identity. But the thermostat works the other way too. Resistance to Public Health, No Longer Fringe, Gains Foothold in G.O.P. Politics Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times [unlocked] Resistance to public health, relegated to the fringes of the American right and left before Covid vaccine mandates became a cultural flashpoint and a symbol of government overreach, now has a firm foothold in Republican politics — and a chance to wield real power in Washington. How Shame, Blame and the Internet Eroded Trust in Science F.D. Flam, Bloomberg Opinion [unlocked] The world turned to scientists, doctors and one another for answers during the Covid pandemic. No one handled it perfectly.
The undeniable crisis that’s not driving American voters Zachary B. Wolf, CNN In Gallup polling from late September, most of which was conducted just before Helene made landfall, registered voters were asked to rate the importance of 22 issues in this year’s election. Just 5% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, along with slightly more than a third of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, said climate change was “extremely” important to their vote. Eric Adams Was Never the Future of the Democratic Party David Wallace-Wells, New York Times New York City Mayor Eric Adams only just squeaked into office, indeed with the help of publicly matched campaign funds investigators now allege were illegally obtained. But he did so amid a curious chorus of national praise that treated him like the new face of the Democratic Party and made him seem, as a result, like a much more consequential political figure than he ever really was. When Election Modelers Attack David Freedlander, New York Magazine After years of growing strife in the nerdy reaches of election prediction, this is the year there seems to be an all-against-all war among the participants — with name-calling, sniping, reputational attacks, and daily hostile exchanges on social media. Partly because anything related to the presidential election seems to devolve into strife and partly because it has become a high-stakes game and everybody is trying to come away with the crown as the one who has the best formula and got it most right. Russians More Interested in Peace Talks with Ukraine, but Most Oppose Making Major Concessions Dina Smeltz, Lama El Baz & Denis Volkov, Chicago Council on Global Affairs A just-completed September 26–October 2, 2024, public opinion survey in Russia conducted jointly by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center seems to demonstrate some level of war fatigue among the Russian population.
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PLAYLIST
A Pollster’s Guide to the Homestretch The Run-Up We are less than a month from Election Day. That means our polling colleagues are busy. And that they are well positioned to help answer some of the biggest questions we have at this stage in the race. Like: Who has the advantage between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? What’s the most important battleground state? And what are the chances we actually know the final result on election night? On today’s show, we do our best to get answers — and to get ready for these next few weeks.
Older Voters Worried About Economy, Abortion The NPR Politics Podcast They vote in large numbers. They're a part of the electorate that usually gets courted heavily. But older voters say this time around, presidential campaigns are ignoring them. We explore what's on their minds in 2024. This episode: White House correspondent Asma Khalid, national political correspondent Don Gonyea & senior political editor & correspondent Domenico Montanaro.
Why Kamala Harris’s ‘Call Her Daddy’ Strategy Might Not Be Enough The Opinions Donald Trump has been on a tour of the Gen Z influencer ecosystem, from Theo Von to Adin Ross. In this episode of “The Opinions,” Daniel Pfeiffer, a senior adviser to former President Barack Obama, argues that Trump is trying to win the support of young men, a once loyal Democratic constituency. Mr. Pfeiffer says Democrats ignore these voters at their peril, for the 2024 election and beyond: “There is no post-Trump era if Gen Z men become firmly adherents of MAGA philosophy,” he explains.
A History of Christian Nationalism Throughline References to God and Christianity are sprinkled throughout American life. Our money has "In God We Trust" printed on it. Most presidents have chosen to swear their oath of office on the Bible. Christian nationalists want more. Christian nationalist beliefs are rooted in the idea that the United States was founded as a Christian nation, and that its laws should reflect certain Christian values. And versions of these beliefs are widely held by Americans of different ages, races, and backgrounds. In 2022, a Pew Research poll reported that 45 percent of Americans believe the country should be a Christian nation. More than half of those people said the Bible should influence U.S. laws. Today on the show: the complex relationship between Christianity and the U.S.
John Dickerson says Trump's election lies are not a thing of the past CBS News CBS News chief political analyst John Dickerson says former President Donald Trump's Jan. 6 behavior is not a thing of the past and it matters in the 2024 election.