Paid subscribers: To stay current with major developments, remember to check our Campaign 2024 Update page, between issues of Opinion Today. It's updated daily with polls and election analyses released after our morning newsletter is emailed to subscribers.
Marist Poll: Harris +5 Points Against Trump Nationally Marist Institute for Public Opinion In the presidential contest, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by five points among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. The race gets closer, however, among registered voters nationally. Here, three points separate the two candidates. While 40% of Americans approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing in office, 53% disapprove.
New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds presidential race extremely tight Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that in the race for president, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice of 48% and Republican former President Donald Trump is the choice of 47% among likely voters. President Biden’s job approval in October stands at 39% with disapproval at 61%, unchanged since July. In voting for Congress, 51% of likely voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 49% will vote for the Republican candidate.
Harris holds steady, marginal 45%-42% lead over Trump, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Jason Lange, Reuters Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris held a marginal 3-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump - 45% to 42% - as the two stayed locked in a tight race to win the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Trump led Harris 45% to 40% when voters were asked who was the better candidate for the "economy, unemployment and jobs," the category of national priorities that 26% of poll respondents picked as the biggest problem facing the nation, compared with 23% who picked political extremism and 3% who said healthcare. Trump gains on Harris Cameron Easley & Eli Yokley, Morning Consult Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points among likely voters, 50% to 46% when rounded, down from a 6-point lead in our previous update. Harris has a slight lead among independent likely voters (46% to 42%), and is bolstered by her strong standing among Democrats and those who voted for President Joe Biden in the 2020 election. At 45%, Harris' Approval Rating Is Higher Than Biden's Megan Brenan, Gallup With three weeks to go before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris’ job approval rating stands at 45%, essentially unchanged from one month ago. President Joe Biden’s latest rating is 39%, also similar to a month ago but down six percentage points from a late September update. Meanwhile, Americans’ approval of the job Congress is doing has edged down to 16% in the past month.
Close fight in the trenches: A look at the ground game in the presidential race: POLL Gary Langer and Jared Sousa, ABC News A narrow edge in voter contact by Kamala Harris' campaign at the national level fades to parity in the battleground states -- but Harris has been doing more to turn her contacts into voter assistance, an ABC News/Ipsos poll finds.
Many Americans are getting contacted by the Harris and Trump campaigns to ask for their vote Ipsos New ABC News/Ipsos polling details how Americans are being contacted by the campaigns Delinquency Expectations Continue to Deteriorate; Inflation Expectations Tick Up at the Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons Federal Reserve Bank of New York The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the September 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations remained unchanged at the short-term horizon while increasing slightly at the medium- and longer-term horizons. “The View” Alternate Universe: Break From Biden in Interviews, Play the Hits in Ads Blueprint As Democrats debate the delicate task of differentiating Vice President Harris from President Biden, our latest poll highlights this tension and identifies a comfortable home where Harris can effectively and confidently answer the question: Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years? Project 2025’s Economic and Health Care Policies Concern Voters William Diep, Data for Progress New polling from Data for Progress finds that likely voters have heard mostly negative things about Project 2025 and are worried about its policy proposals, including those that would reduce health care and economic benefits for low- and middle-income Americans. America in Focus: These 9 Women Were Solidly With Trump. Here’s What Has Changed. Patrick Healy, Kristen Soltis Anderson and Adrian J. Rivera, New York Times In May, when President Biden was running for re-election, we conducted a focus group with 12 women from swing states who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 to assess how they were feeling about the rematch. They were enthusiastically pro-Trump and confident: Eleven of the 12 said they thought he would win. This month, with Ms. Harris now the Democratic nominee, we decided to invite our group from May to reconvene and talk about what difference, if any, having a woman at the top of the ticket made for them.
Michigan: Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Neck and Neck AARP Former President Donald Trump (R) and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) are tied among voters overall at 46%, with 5% of voters supporting a third-party candidate and 2% undecided. Trump has a slight lead in a head-to-head matchup, 49% - 48%. In the U.S. Senate race, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) holds a narrow lead over Mike Rogers (R), 49% - 46%, among voters overall. AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan.
Michigan: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat Marketing Resource Group If the election were held today, Kamala Harris would snag 45% of the vote while Donald Trump trails by only 1% at 44%. In a recent MRG-commissioned Michigan Poll®, conducted October 7 to October 11, results show the gap between Harris and Trump closing. Compared to the MRG Spring Michigan Poll, Trump has gained 2 percentage points over the past 6 months; Harris has improved upon Biden’s 36% from April 2024. Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in the race for U.S. Senate by 5% with Slotkin receiving 46% of the vote compared to Rogers’ 41%. Michigan: 2024 Proves Lackluster for Elected Officials and Candidates Marketing Resource Group The MRG commissioned Michigan Poll®, conducted October 7th –11th, shows 66% of Michigan voters believe the country is on the wrong track with only 24% believing the country is headed in the right direction. Looking generally at Michigan, 47% believe the state is on the wrong track, compared to the 43% who believe the state is headed in the right direction. 57% disapprove of President Biden’s job performance and only 37% think he’s doing a good job. 54% of voters approve of Governor Whitmer's job performance, with 39% disapproving. Texans Likely to Lean Republican in Presidential, Senate Race Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston With just three weeks to go before the election, former President Donald Trump is holding steady in Texas, with 51% of likely voters saying they will vote for the Republican nominee on Nov. 5. That compares to 46% who say they will vote for Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris. In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is leading Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Colin Allred 50% to 46%. Cruz led by just two points in August.
Massachusetts: Residents Evenly Split on ‘Psychedelics,’ Majority Support Eliminating MCAS as High School Graduation Requirement University of Massachusetts Amherst A majority of Massachusetts residents support four of the five questions put to voters on Election Day, including eliminating the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System tests as a requirement for high school graduation, and are evenly split on whether certain psychedelic substances should be legalized and regulated, according to a new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll. The poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a considerable edge over Trump (56%-30%) among Massachusetts residents. Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren has a comfortable 22-percentage point lead (56%-34%) over Republican challenger John Deaton. Why working-class White women could be so decisive this fall Ronald Brownstein, CNN Even as Trump struggled with other groups of women in his 2016 and 2020 presidential races, exit polls and other analyses showed that he amassed a big lead each time among White women without a college education. Those working-class White women loom as a critical, potentially even decisive, factor in Trump’s third White House bid. That’s partly because so many of them, polls show, are torn between personal disdain for Trump and discontent with the results of Joe Biden’s presidency, particularly over inflation and the border. But it’s also because these women are especially plentiful in the three former “blue wall” states that still constitute Harris’ most likely path to an Electoral College victory: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Gender Gap Is Defining Feature of Deadlocked Trump-Harris Race Catherine Lucey, Aaron Zitner and Xavier Martinez, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The gender gap has come to define a deadlocked presidential race, with a galvanized group of women voting for Harris because of her support for abortion rights and Trump wooing men with uber-masculine rhetoric. The split has affected the candidates’ media strategies and how they frame the issues most important to voters in the final weeks of the campaign. Swing state map: Polls move in Trump’s direction, but the race remains tight Domenico Montanaro, NPR News The polling averages show Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead has dropped in every swing state in recent weeks. The Known Unknowns of Election 2024 William A. Galston, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The gender gap seems wider than ever, while Hispanics and black men shift to Trump. Why Hispanics Are Becoming Less Reliably Democratic Michael Baharaeen, The Liberal Patriot Making sense of a long-emerging trend. Democrats and Republicans are lining up in new ways for 2024 election. No one knows what's next. Tal Axelrod, ABC News "We can't take voters for granted," one Democrat said. Kamala Harris needs weird voters Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin Why she wants to go on Rogan Three Weeks to Go: Has Anybody Seen Our Crystal Ball Anywhere? Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball The presidential election “vibes” have arguably been positive for Republicans in recent days, but the race is still completely up for grabs. Our seven Toss-up states remain rated that way, although we do have some inclination of where we might go in our final projections in at least some of them. How big a political problem is mental acuity for Trump? Aaron Blake, Washington Post Polls show it’s nowhere near as big as it was for Biden, but it has grown as a liability for Trump — amid increasingly strange scenes. Here’s how Donald Trump would lower grocery prices Philip Bump, Washington Post [unlocked] During Donald Trump’s town hall in Pennsylvania, an attendee asked about grocery bills and inflation. Here is Trump’s response in its entirety. Trump Has Turned It Up to 11 Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times [unlocked] The former president is so dependent on racial and ethnic antagonism that without it he would be a marginal figure. Donald Trump, American Fascist Thomas Zimmer, Democracy Americana Trumpism is what a specifically American, twenty-first century version of fascism looks like. And in November, fascism is on the ballot. In a Michigan city, Harris has failed to catch fire with Black men Michael Brice-Saddler, Washington Post In December, Black men in Pontiac told The Post they were unenthused about Biden. Now, some feel the same about Harris. Unions face a moment of truth in Michigan in this year’s presidential race Joey Cappelletti & Matt Brown, Associated Press As they compete for blue wall states with deep union roots, the presidential candidates are making their case to workers in starkly different terms. And nowhere is that contrast more significant than in Michigan, where both candidates are vying for workers’ support in a race that could mark a pivotal moment for organized labor. Ukrainians in Pennsylvania are split on Harris and Trump. How can that be? Josh Rogin, Washington Post [unlocked] These voters could swing the election. Neither candidate seems focused on securing their support. America Is on the Brink of a Great Political Realignment. It’s Already Visible in Arizona. Michelle Goldberg, New York Times [unlocked] He and his acolytes purged the G.O.P. to make it smaller and more strident. The Danger Is Greater Than in 2020. Be Prepared. Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic [unlocked] A citizen’s guide to defending the 2024 election Meet the Election Denier Forecasting the 2024 Race Stuart Thompson, New York Times [unlocked] Seth Keshel has become a darling among election deniers by factoring widespread voter fraud — the existence of which has been widely debunked — into his election predictions. Why don’t Republicans want California Republicans to matter? Philip Bump, Washington Post With the presidential election looming, it is time to once again adjudicate the existence of the electoral college. How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election Nathaniel Rakich, 538 Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Turnout will … Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call Yes, it is always about turnout because elections are about who votes — not what all Americans believe. Rating Changes: 8 in the House, 2 in the Senate Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call Five previously vulnerable Democratic incumbents drop off the House battlefield
If you haven’t already done so, become a paid subscriber and receive the FULL Opinion Today briefing first thing each morning, Monday-Friday, plus an expanded edition on weekends.
PLAYLIST
Margin of Effort (with Ron Brownstein) Hacks On Tap We are three weeks out from election day, so Axe & Murphy have enlisted their favorite political whiz, Ron Brownstein, the human encyclopedia of hackfoolery! The Hacks break down the state of the race, dissect Harris’s messaging hits and misses, and explore how the popular vote, Senate, and House races could differ from the top of the ticket.
Information Overload National Journal Radio Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook check in on the presidential race as it nears its end, break down the deluge of tight national polls, and check in on other competitive races.
Why Presidential Elections Are Razor Thin in Wisconsin The Odd Years Podcast Presidential elections in Wisconsin the last two cycles have been incredibly close. In 2016 and 2020, they were decided by less than one percentage point. Of course, polling in the state has been notoriously "off" - or maybe fickle - which makes it more important than ever to talk to people who have been covering politics in Wisconsin for quite some time and can help us understand the many whims and changes there. That's why we invited Craig Gilbert to talk today. He is a self-described chronicler of close Wisconsin elections and he calls it one of the "most enduring" of the battleground states.
Harris gaining support from key voting group with three weeks to go CNN CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten looks at recent polling results that show Vice President Kamala Harris making gains with White women voters.
Trump Talks Tariffs, Immigration and the Fed (Full Interview) Bloomberg Television Former US President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump discusses his economic policies, immigration and the 2024 US presidential election. Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait speaks to Trump at an event with the Economic Club of Chicago.
An inside look at how the Associated Press calls winners in thousands of races PBS NewsHour Election season is well underway. Candidates are campaigning, absentee ballots are being mailed out, and early votes are being cast. It’s all leading to Nov. 5, and one big question: Who won? But to find out, votes actually have to be counted. Lisa Desjardins takes a closer look at how the Associated Press keeps track of thousands of competitive races.