Opinion Weekend
October 19-20, 2024
A reminder for paid subscribers: To stay current with major developments between issues of our newsletter, check our Campaign 2024 Update page for the latest polls and election analyses.
Most Republicans say it’s likely poll workers will attempt to tamper with the 2024 election. Jamie Ballard, YouGov A new YouGov survey on poll workers finds that 39% of Americans think it is at least somewhat likely poll workers will attempt to tamper with the November election, though fewer think those attempts will be successful.
America Confronts the State of Its Politics in 2024 Bright Line Watch Experts believe Trump will try to claim victory before the race is decided (median forecast: 80% likelihood) and encourage violence and intimidation by his supporters (80%). Just 7% of experts and 24% of the public think Trump will concede if he loses the election. By contrast, 75% of experts and 72% of the public think Harris will concede if she loses the election. Consistent with other polls, respondents to our public survey were closely divided between the two major-party presidential candidates. Among the 86% of people who said they intend to vote, 46% said they intend to vote for Trump (including 92% of Republicans) and 49% for Harris (including 94% of Democrats); 14% indicated that they do not intend to vote.
The link between media consumption and public opinion Clifford Young, Sarah Feldman & Bernard Mendez, Ipsos Five charts on how news source affects Americans’ views on the issues and how this might affect the 2024 election
Would Americans choose communism or fascism? David Montgomery, YouGov In 1939, pollsters in the U.S. and Britain asked respondents a tough question: if they had to choose between communism and fascism, which would they pick? Britons were more likely to pick communism, while Americans were evenly split. This fall, YouGov re-asked that question. YouGov also asked Americans about a range of other systems of government.
