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Trump Takes Narrow Lead Over Harris in Closing Weeks of Race Aaron Zitner, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Donald Trump has opened a narrow lead in the presidential race, as voters have adopted a more positive view of his agenda and past performance and a more negative view of Kamala Harris, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds.
A closely contested election, the big issues, voting, and the World Series: October 19 - 22, 2024, Economist/YouGov Poll Kathy Frankovic & David Montgomery, YouGov This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the closely contested presidential election; where voters and the candidates stand on immigration, foreign policy, and other major issues; how Americans are voting and whether they trust elections; and the World Series.
Times/SAY24 poll shows Harris leading as Americans split on whether our best days are behind us or ahead of us Mark Blumenthal, Taylor Orth, David Montgomery, David Montgomery & Carl Bialik, YouGov A YouGov poll of 1,266 registered voters between October 18 - 21, 2024 — conducted for the Times and SAY24, a joint project of Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities — shows how Kamala Harris has maintained a narrow lead over Donald Trump in the presidential election, finds subtle shifts in perceptions of the candidates' relative strengths, and picks up on concerns over possible partisan violence in the aftermath of the closely contested election.
Quarter of Americans fear civil war after election, Times poll shows David Charter, The Times [unlocked] A YouGov survey less than two weeks from 2024 election day reveals voters’ unease over violence Harris v. Trump poll: Americans trust the count but worry about violence Susan Page, Sudiksha Kochi & Maya Marchel Hoff, USA Today Election angst won't end on Election Day, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds. Americans, fiercely divided between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, are concerned about the accuracy of the vote count, anxious about the peaceful transition of power and even braced for political violence. Americans Endorse Both Early Voting and Voter Verification Megan Brenan, Gallup Smaller majorities favor automatic voter registration and sending absentee ballot applications to all citizens How much do Americans want to change the American way of life? David Montgomery, YouGov A majority of Americans say the American way of life is good, but most U.S. adult citizens want at least some changes. More than one-third say the American way of life is bad, and this group is divided between those wanting "something new and better" for the U.S. and those wanting "a better way it used to be." Democrats and Republicans are more enthusiastic about their candidates winning than in 2016 or 2020 Jamie Ballard, YouGov Two weeks before the 2024 presidential election, a new YouGov survey explores how voters are feeling about casting their vote for president, how they’ll feel in the event of a Harris victory or a Trump victory, and how they’ve taken action this year. ‘Stable Uncertainty’ in 2024 Race Monmouth University Polling Institute Kamala Harris’s entry into the presidential race may have been a game-changer at the time, but there has been little significant movement since then. While Harris continues to hold slightly more support than Donald Trump among all voters nationwide, there is more than enough room for the outcome to go either way as a result of very small shifts in turnout. How many voters are Donald Trump and Kamala Harris reaching on podcasts? James Powel, USA Today An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll asked respondents whether they caught campaign appearances by Harris and Trump on podcasts. The poll found that less than 30% of voters had been reached. The Podcast Tour Wars: The Highlights from Harris, Duds from Donald Blueprint A lot of tweets have been typed and ink spilled on Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump’s foray into the world of podcasts and non-traditional media. So we at Blueprint broke down what both candidates have been saying to men of the pod (and radio), so see what is resonating with male voters (and what isn’t). Many Voters Aren’t Taking Trump’s Comments Seriously Ryan O’Donnell and Lew Blank, Data for Progress Since Trump’s first presidential bid in 2016, analysts have debated whether his comments should be taken “seriously” or “literally.” In a new survey, however, Data for Progress finds that many voters aren’t taking his comments seriously or literally. Instead, large percentages of voters do not think Trump is being serious at all when making various statements.
Michigan and Wisconsin: Gender Divide Defines Tight Presidential Races; In U.S. Senate Races, Dem Holds Lead In MI, Very Close In WI Quinnipiac University Poll With all eyes on the swing states that are key to winning the 2024 presidential election, Michigan and Wisconsin show races between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump that are too close to call. In Michigan, Harris receives 49 percent support among likely voters, Trump receives 46 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 1 percent support. In Wisconsin, the presidential race is tied, with Harris receiving 48 percent support among likely voters and Trump receiving 48 percent support in a multi-candidate race with all listed third-party candidates each receiving less than 1 percent support. Pennsylvania: Franklin & Marshall Poll Berwood Yost, Center for Opinion Research, Franklin & Marshall College The presidential and US Senate races are a toss-up among likely voters. Donald Trump has a one-point advantage over Kamala Harris, 50% to 49%, and Democratic Senator Bob Casey has a single-point lead over Republican David McCormick, 49% to 48%, among likely voters. Arizona: Just one point separates Trump and Harris among likely voters Marist Institute for Public Opinion Just one point separates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris among Arizona likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego (53%) leads Republican Kari Lake (45%) by 8 points among likely voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Georgia: Harris and Trump are tied among likely voters Marist Institute for Public Opinion Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied among Georgia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris has gained ground among independents and receives more support among independents than President Joe Biden did in 2020. North Carolina: Two points separate Trump and Harris among likely voters Marist Institute for Public Opinion Two points separate Donald Trump and Kamala Harris among North Carolina likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Trump has opened up a lead over Harris among independents, and he outpaces Harris among white voters. In the race for governor, Democrat Josh Stein (55%) leads Republican Mark Robinson (41%) by 14 points among likely voters. California: November Election Public Policy Institute of California Kamala Harris and Tim Walz lead Donald Trump and J.D. Vance by a wide margin (59% to 33%). Adam Schiff (D) leads Steve Garvey (R) by a wide margin (63% to 37%) in the US Senate race. Seventy-three percent say they would vote “yes” on Proposition 36 (increasing crime sentences). Six in ten or more say they would vote yes on Proposition 3 (right to marriage), Proposition 4 (climate bond), and Proposition 35 (Medi-Cal funding). A majority would vote yes on Proposition 2 (education bonds). Support is below the majority vote threshold needed to pass for Proposition 5 (55% to pass local bonds), Proposition 6 (eliminating involuntary servitude for incarcerated persons), Proposition 32 (higher minimum wage), Proposition 33 (expanding local rent controls), and Proposition 34 (restricting spending on prescription drug revenues). Virginia: Kiggans Holds 1-point Lead over Cotter Smasal in 2nd CD Wason Center for Civic Leadership, Christopher Newport University Republican Jen Kiggans holds a 1-point lead over Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal among VA-2 likely voters, down from a 5-point lead in our September survey. Kiggans’ support is currently driven by Republican voters (89% to 6%), Independents (46% to 42%), male voters (52% to 38%), white voters (58% to 34%), and voters without college degrees (55% to 35%). Inflation Has Cooled, but Americans Are Still Seething Over Prices Jon Kamp, Joe Pinsker and Aaron Zitner, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Many people—though not all—saw wage increases that kept pace with the pandemic’s rapid price hikes, but the psychological toll remains
Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election, but Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine Nate Silver, New York Times [unlocked] In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it. Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: “C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?” So OK, I’ll tell you. The Case for Optimism for Kamala Harris Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box How you feel over the final days Why Harris could beat her polls Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin Or Trump could beat his again. Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Last Soundings Debra Leiter (U. of Missouri-Kansas City) and Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. of Iowa), Sabato’s Crystal Ball Asking people who they believe will win the election, as opposed to who they are going to vote for, can be an effective tool for trying to figure out who is favored in an election. A series of four different polls asking Americans who they believe will win the election showed that more expected Donald Trump to win during the summer, but more recently these expectations have moved in favor of Kamala Harris. Trump is the only GOP candidate some young voters have ever known. It's shaped their worldview. Sakshi Venkatraman, NBC News Voters born in the mid-to-late ’90s who have only known the Republican Party led by Donald Trump say the idea of a “normal election” feels foreign to them. America Is Playing With Fire Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times [unlocked] It’s both frightening and disturbing to think that American voters could once again make someone as unhinged and unbridled as Donald Trump the president. Trump’s Depravity Will Not Cost Him This Election Tom Nichols, The Atlantic [unlocked] Many Americans know exactly who Trump is, and they like it. Trump supporters are more likely to expect a collapse into fascism Philip Bump, Washington Post They are also more likely than Harris supporters to describe themselves as scared about the state of the world. Stop Calling Trump an ‘Isolationist’ Josh Rudolph (German Marshall Fund), Foreign Policy [unlocked] His foreign policy is more aptly described as pro-dictator. This is the Obama-Biden-Harris economic legacy David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call We hear a lot about immigration, abortion, crime and the candidates’ personal flaws, all important issues. But in the end, this election will be won or lost on the basis of who voters believe will deliver a stronger, more stable economy. They Can’t Both Lose, but Either One Could Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] If victory has 1,000 fathers, defeat in the 2024 presidential race either way will have at least a dozen reasons. Older Voters Might Save Kamala Harris’s Bacon Timothy Noah, New Republic It’s great that younger voters support Harris, but 2024 could be the year the gerontocracy votes itself out of office—and keeps a decrepit extremist away from the White House. Over 230 Republican candidates have cast doubt on the 2024 election Clara Ence Morse, Derek Hawkins and Carson TerBush, Washington Post [unlocked] Nearly half of Republican candidates for Congress or top state offices have used social media to cast doubt on the integrity of the 2024 election, according to a Washington Post analysis, highlighting a pervasive effort within the GOP to undermine public trust in the vote ahead of Nov. 5. Musk Helps Set the Stage for ‘Stop the Steal 2024’ Dave Lee, Bloomberg Opinion [unlocked] X will amplify election fraud conspiracies alongside its owner’s theatrical efforts to put Trump back in the White House. No, a Voting Machine Did Not ‘Flip’ a Vote in Georgia Stuart A. Thompson, New York Times [unlocked] One voter’s mistake has been transformed into a voter fraud conspiracy theory, catapulted into the national spotlight by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. As Election Looms, Disinformation ‘Has Never Been Worse’ Steven Lee Myers, New York Times [unlocked] A torrent of falsehoods, from home and abroad, have undermined what was once a shared faith in the honesty of America’s democracy. Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate G. Elliott Morris and Geoffrey Skelley, 538 538 is unveiling our forecast for the upper chamber. At launch, it gives Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of winning a majority (including cases where the Senate is split 50-50 but Trump wins the presidency, so Vice President JD Vance is the tiebreaking vote in the Senate). The chance that Democrats hold their majority is 13 in 100: about the same as the chance of rolling a die and getting a one. The State Legislatures Louis Jacobson, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Several Key Battleground Chambers Remain Toss-ups Democrats Keep the Dream Alive in Texas J. David Goodman, New York Times [unlocked] A tightening in the polls for the Senate race, and millions from George Soros, has rekindled old hopes of turning Texas blue. But demographic changes alone may not be enough to flip the state, party organizers say. Why the margin of error matters more than ever in reading 2024 election polls – a pollster with 30 years of experience explains Doug Schwartz (Quinnipiac University), The Conversation With the presidential election in its final weeks, our polls have been finding a fairly tight and steady race, with most voters telling us their minds are made up. Because the difference between the presidential candidates is within the margin of error in swing states, the election polling in autumn 2024 is telling Americans to hold their breath and make sure they vote, because it is likely to be a squeaker. The Crypto Betting Platform Predicting a Trump Win Kyle Chayka, The New Yorker Polymarket has seen a recent surge in pro-Trump election bets. Is it the movement of a rational market or a concerted campaign? What happens if the NYT’s tech staff strikes on election night? Laura Wagner, Washington Post [unlocked] A message from Times journalists to executives asks: “Can you imagine if our election needle didn’t work?”
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PLAYLIST
Ronald Brownstein on Harris v. Trump: What to Look For in the Home Stretch Conversations with Bill Kristol Where does the race stand two weeks before Election Day? To discuss, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN. According to Brownstein, the election is “closely balanced on the knife’s edge” and very subtle shifts among coalitions in the swing states easily could change the outcome. Brownstein shares his perspective on possible paths to victory for each candidate based on the current data, and what we ought to look for on the campaign trail and in the polling during the last days of the campaign.
Amy Walter and the closing arguments: Two weeks until Election Day The Chuck ToddCast With two weeks to go, Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report … with Amy Walter, and the host of “The Odd Years” podcast, joins Chuck to explore the map.
The Swing State Power Brokers Throughline Today on the show, two stories of building power in swing states: from the top down, and the bottom up. First, how a future Supreme Court justice helped launch a program to challenge voters at the Arizona polls in the early 1960s, in a county that's become a hotbed for election conspiracies in the decades since. Then, how a 1973 labor strike led by Arab Americans in a Michigan factory town sparked a political movement that could play a major role in the 2024 election.