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Harris lead over Trump dwindles to a single point, 44% to 43%, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Jason Lange, Reuters Kamala Harris' lead over Donald Trump dwindled in the final stretch of the U.S. presidential contest, with the Democrat ahead by a single percentage point over the Republican, 44% to 43%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday. Asked which of the two candidates had a better approach to the economy, unemployment and jobs, voters in the poll picked Trump 47% to 37%. One-third of Americans say Trump is a fascist; 12% say Harris is Jamie Ballard, YouGov Less than two weeks before the presidential election, a new YouGov survey checked in on how Americans perceive the two presidential candidates.
Americans’ perceptions of election security vary by primary media source Ipsos A new Ipsos poll finds that Americans who primarily consume Fox News and conservative media outlets are less confident than the general public that votes—via paper, electronic systems, mail, or internet—will be cast and counted accurately in this year’s election.
Many voters are concerned the conflict in the Middle East will escalate into a broader war AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research Half of registered voters are concerned about an escalation of hostilities and 42% worry about that the U.S. will be drawn into a broader conflict.
Democrats and Republicans split on Israel’s responsibility for war’s escalation, AP-NORC poll finds Linley Sanders, Associated Press Many American voters are concerned that the ongoing Middle East conflict will escalate into an all-out regional war, a new poll finds. About half of voters are “extremely” or “very” worried about the possibility of a broader war in the region. Though there is concern about the conflict growing, according to the survey from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, fewer voters — around 4 in 10 — are concerned that the United States will be drawn into a war in the Middle East. Confidence Rebounded in October as Consumers Regained Faith in the US Economy Conference Board The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in October to 108.7 (1985=100), up from 99.2 in September. “Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved.”
New UMass Amherst Poll Finds ‘Project 2025’ Policy Proposals Wildly Unpopular Among Americans University of Massachusetts Amherst The national poll also shows an increase in Republican support for the Great Replacement Theory since 2022, and finds that close to 4 in 10 Republicans believe immigrants are “poisoning the blood of the nation,” that “many are terrorists” or they “want to rape, pillage, thieve, plunder and kill American citizens.”
Two-Thirds of Americans Oppose National Abortion and IVF Bans, According to New UMass Amherst/League of Women Voters Poll University of Massachusetts Amherst The national survey finds strong public support for policies that would codify reproductive rights, as well as for other policies, including paid family leave, increasing the child tax credit and various protections associated with the Affordable Care Act. Harris and Trump neck-and-neck nationally; Trump leads in Florida Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, Florida Atlantic University The latest national poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab and Mainstreet Research USA reveals a neck-and-neck race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with Harris holding a slim 49% to 47% lead among likely voters. In Florida, Trump leads Harris 53% to 44%. In the U.S. senate race, Republican Rick Scott leads Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 50% to 46%. Amendment 4, which seeks to secure abortion rights up to fetal viability or when necessary for the patient’s health, also shows significant support at 58% with 32% opposed and 10% undecided. How to Win a Swing Voter in Seven Days Blueprint Blueprint’s latest polling looks at swing voters (undecideds, flip-floppers, ticket-splitters, double haters, and double lovers) in swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, and WI) and what makes them tick. We found that despite being surrounded by Trump-supporting family and community members, swing state swing voters find themselves more aligned with Harris on the high-salience issues of prices and abortion and see Trump as more extreme and exclusionary. Put simply, the decisive voters in the final stretch of this election are left-leaning people in right-leaning environments. The Gender Gap in Economic Pessimism Maryann Cousens, Navigator Research Though the economy as a whole is improving, Americans continue to struggle to make ends meet, leading to consistent economic pessimism. While how Americans rate the economy depends heavily on partisanship and personal financial confidence, one group in particular is consistently more pessimistic about the economy: women. Arizona and Nevada: Harris and Trump locked in close races Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Edward Wu, CNN In the critical Southwest battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump run near even in the race for the White House, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. Harris holds 48% support among likely voters in Arizona, according to the poll, to 47% for Trump. In Nevada, 48% of likely voters support Trump and 47% back Harris. Pennsylvania: All tied up Jennifer De Pinto & Fred Backus, CBS News With just a week to go, it's a tied race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania — the biggest electoral vote prize of the battleground states in the 2024 election. Trump is helped by voters' negative perceptions of today's economy and by the fact that more voters think they would be better off financially with him in the White House than Harris. When they look back, far more Pennsylvania voters say things were going well in the U.S. during Trump's presidency than say that today.
Pennsylvania 8: Carry On, Cartwright Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections Northeast Pennsylvania’s Matt Cartwright is the only Democrat in Congress to win two elections while Donald Trump carried his district at the top of the ticket. A new Noble Predictive Insights poll conducted for Inside Elections shows Cartwright, who represents Pennsylvania’s 8th District, is well-positioned to continue that streak in 2024. Michigan: Harris, Trump deadlocked Terry Collins, USA Today Less than a week before Election Day, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are deadlocked in the battleground state of Michigan, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. Harris and Trump are tied, 47% to 47%, a statewide poll of 500 likely voters shows. Michigan: Statewide Voter Attitude Survey Susquehanna Polling and Research If the election for President were being held today.... If the election for United States Senate were being held today.... North Carolina: Hurricane Helene factors into dead-even presidential election Elon University Poll A new survey by the Elon University Poll has found that Hurricane Helene has galvanized the plans of about a fifth of North Carolina’s voters to cast ballots in this year’s election and identified a sharp split along partisan lines about whether federal and state agencies are doing a good job responding to the devastation the hurricane caused in the western part of the state. The poll found that the presidential race in the state is a dead heat: 46% of the state’s registered voters supported Donald Trump and 46% backed Kamala Harris. In the governor race, Democrat Josh Stein has widened his lead over Republican Mark Robinson, with a 21-point advantage.
Arizona: General Election Statewide Poll Data Orbital In the race for president, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 49.7% to 41.9%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1.0% support, while Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver garnered 0.7%. An additional 6.8% of respondents were undecided or declined to answer. In the US Senate race, Republican candidate Kari Lake holds a narrow lead over Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego, 45.2% to 44.5%. Green Party candidate Eduardo Quintana received 1.6% support, while 8.6% of respondents were undecided or declined to answer. Texas: Focusing on the track, not just the horses, as the 2024 race enters the final stretch Jim Henson & Joshua Blank, University of Texas/Texas Politics Project While we’re not ones to complain, it’s still fair to note that the closer we get to Election Day, the more attention gets paid to horse race results in polling – often at the expense of a deeper look into what polling can tell us about the context of that election. We’ve gathered some of the results from the recently released October poll (conducted from the 2nd through the 10th) to give some more depth to the trial ballots – and to capture some of the contextual elements of the political universe in Texas as the 2024 election enters its final days. Gender and Education Are the New Fault Lines of American Politics Celinda Lake (Lake Research Partners) & Amanda Iovino (WPA Intelligence), New York Times [unlocked] As the candidates consolidate support among their base, the divide between college-educated women and non-college-educated men seems almost impossible for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump to overcome. The big question for America going forward is, can these two groups be brought together after a campaign that has only driven them further apart? This Time, It May Actually Come Down to Turnout Nate Cohn, New York Times [unlocked] Democrats have gained among high-turnout voters, while Donald Trump has made gains among groups that tend to show up only for presidential races, or not at all.
One Week from the Election: The Survey Findings Keeping Me Up at Night White Too Long by Robert P. Jones The latest PRRI American Values Survey highlights disturbing dynamics that will be with us far beyond Election Day. The Trends I’m Watching During Election Week (Part 1) Michael Baharaeen, The Liberal Patriot Examining the factors that will tell the story of this election. Final Trump vs. Harris Polls Show It’s Down to the Wire Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine Polling analysts, who have varying methods of averaging polls, have slightly different takes on the race. But without splitting hairs, it’s hard to see this as anything other than an incredibly close race where late turnout trends and polling errors wind up telling us what we cannot know right now: the identity of the 47th president. Democrats’ Despondency May Be Premature William A. Galston, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Registration trends favor Trump, but a surge of female voters could elect Harris. One Week to Go, and Two Contradictory ‘Gut’ Feelings Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball We find ourselves having a couple of gut feelings about what’s going on in the presidential race. Unfortunately for predictive purposes, the two gut feelings are incompatible with one another. 2024 Will Be Either a Realignment or a Reboot Kristen Soltis Anderson, New York Times Either way, it’s too close to make a prediction. What if Democrats Win the White House and Congress on Tuesday? Jonathan Alter, New York Times A more probable outcome is divided government, which would bring a combination of gridlock and incremental change. But let’s assume we all get to live on Fantasy Island for a couple of years before the 2026 midterms. Top Senate Democrats tell me they’re already thinking about what they could do with a congressional majority, and Democratic voters should do the same. How Trump Exploits Divisions Among Black and Latino Voters Jennifer Medina, New York Times [unlocked] Donald J. Trump’s anti-immigrant message is exposing longstanding tensions and challenging Democrats’ hopes for solidarity. Here comes a message from Black America. Get ready for it. Theodore R. Johnson, Washington Post [unlocked] A turn toward nativism among Black voters would send America in the wrong direction. ‘The suburbs — that’s the whole deal’: How the suburbs became Harris’ clearest path to victory Elena Schneider, Politico Dems are betting they can improve on Joe Biden’s numbers in the suburbs. How the Trump Resistance Gave Up Franklin Foer, The Atlantic [unlocked] This year is nothing like 2020, and a collective sense of resignation might make all the difference. Despite Covid ‘Amnesia,’ the Pandemic Simmers Beneath the 2024 Race Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Washington Post [unlocked] Dueling Trump and Harris rallies outside Atlanta offer a case study in how anger and anxiety over Covid-19, a proxy for the larger debate over trust in government, have shaped the 2024 race. In a race they cast as good vs. evil, Christian hard-liners are fired up for Trump Hannah Allam, Washington Post [unlocked] Christian nationalist tours timed to the election showcase the power and ambition of a movement aimed at erasing the separation between church and state. Voters with a 'party-over-reality' bias may play a decisive role in the election Geoffrey Cohen and Michael Schwalbe (Stanford), Los Angeles Times [via Yahoo] Donald Trump’s outrageous claims about immigrants, election fraud and more seem absurd to many of us, especially on the left — outright fabrications that no reasonable person could believe. But new research conducted with our colleagues reveals something unsettling: Gullibility and delusion are not confined to Trump’s supporters, opposers or any specific group. The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania Geoffrey Skelley and Mary Radcliffe, 538 Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states. It’s Not Too Early to Begin the Reckoning Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times As the contest for the White House draws to a close, I asked a wide range of scholars and political strategists where they think the blame will go, whether it is Kamala Harris or Donald Trump who wins. Their answers varied widely. The stage is set for post-election tumult if Trump loses Philip Bump, Washington Post [unlocked] The former president’s years-long effort to deny the credibility of election results and cast his opponents as dangers to the country has been very successful. What Election Integrity Really Means Lora Kelley, The Atlantic [unlocked] Election deniers have co-opted the term to undermine trust in the voting process. I’ve Been Through a Lot of Election Nights. Here’s How Nov. 5 May Go. Ben Ginsberg, New York Times [unlocked] Declaring a winner may take some time. Most voters think Trump won’t concede if he loses. They are probably right. Natalie Jackson (GQR Research), National Journal [unlocked] Voting will be done in a week. The challenges might be just starting. On Elon Musk’s X, Republicans go viral as Democrats disappear Drew Harwell and Jeremy B. Merrill, Washington Post [unlocked] A Washington Post analysis found that Republicans are posting more, getting followed more and going viral more now that the world’s richest Trump supporter is running the show. US economy seen shining on election eve amid robust consumer spending Lucia Mutikani, Reuters The U.S. economy likely maintained a solid pace of growth in the third quarter as subsiding inflation and strong wage gains powered consumer spending ahead of a contentious presidential election set to turn on pocketbook issues.
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PLAYLIST
Digesting 2024 Election Polls: How the Media Reports and Decodes the Numbers Harvard Data Science Review Podcast The upcoming U.S. presidential race arrives at a time when many Americans are grappling with questions about poll accuracy and data reliability. This month, HDSR is joined by journalists Colby Hall and Leland Vittert for an in-depth look at how the media uses data to report and analyze elections and what past elections can teach us about 2024. We’ll discuss which data points are essential, how technology is reshaping polling and political reporting, what the biggest challenges are that the media faces when covering elections today compared to a decade ago, and which voter demographics could sway the 2024 election results in unexpected ways.
Will 2024 Be A Disputed Election? 538 Politics Looking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that may circulate after the votes are cast, and why this election is seeing more litigation than any before it.
Inside the Newly Legalized World of Election Betting Wall Street Journal While polls show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat in the final stretch of the 2024 election, the GOP nominee is dominating the Democratic candidate in the betting markets. Once banned by federal regulators, Americans can now legally gamble on elections in prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as websites to place yes-or-no contracts.
American Voices 2024 FRONTLINE Returning to voters filmed in 2020, this 90-minute documentary explores how their hopes and fears have changed amid another polarizing election season.