Opinion Weekend
November 2-3, 2024
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Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump New York Times [unlocked] Days before the election, the polls show an extremely tight race — with neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris leading by more than a single percentage point either nationwide or in the closest battleground states. Nonetheless, our polling averages show Trump has gained over the last few weeks.
Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now? Washington Post [unlocked] We’re in the final stretch before Election Day and our average still shows an incredibly tight race. Vice President Kamala Harris has held her leads nationally and in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, but her lead in Pennsylvania shrank in the past week. Trump still leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
2024 Presidential, House and Senate Election Ratings and Analysis Randy Yeip and Danny Dougherty, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The outlook for Democrats and Republicans, based on combined ratings from three nonpartisan political analysts
The Case For (And Against) A Kamala Harris Victory Split Ticket With just three days to go until election day, our forecast remains that the presidency is a pure tossup, with Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win and Donald Trump at a 47% chance to win. Harris is a nominal favorite, and so if you forced us to make a pick for the presidency, we’d have to go with her. But it’s extremely easy to see either Trump or Harris pulling out the win come November, based on the data available to us.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? 538 Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Trump Remains Slightly Favored as Race Enters Final Week Decision Desk HQ and The Hill Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 53% chance of winning the Presidency.
There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin Some pollsters aren’t telling you what their data really says.
Presidential Race Goes Down to the Wire Amy Walter, Cook Political Report After a summer and early fall of the unexpected and unprecedented, we end this election in a similar place to where we’ve been for the last eight years: with former President Donald Trump once again defining the contours of a presidential election.
Morning Consult National Tracking: Harris leads Trump in our final survey Cameron Easley & Eli Yokley, Morning Consult Harris leads Trump by 2 percentage points among likely voters, 49% to 47%, down from a 3-point lead in our previous update. Taking into account the survey’s margin of sampling error of 1 percentage point, the candidates could be tied at 48%, or she could be up by 4 points, 50% to 46%. TIPP Tracking Day 20 – Trump and Harris Deadlocked With Three Days To Go tippinsights Suburban and Independent Voters May Decide the Outcome Harris leads Trump 49-47 in the full ballot Echelon Insights Voters are nearly evenly divided over whether Trump (43%) or Harris (42%) will win. Voters see the election as “existential,” rather than believing “the country will ultimately be okay no matter who wins,” by a 79-15 margin. Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump narrowly in YouGov's final MRP 2024 presidential estimates YouGov The third and final release of our model estimating 2024 presidential-election votes in every state, based upon more than 55,000 recent interviews of registered voters, shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% in the national popular vote less than a week before Election Day. The Nov. 1 update shows Harris with 240 electoral votes, Trump with 218, and 80 electoral votes as tossups. Democrats lead narrowly in the House while Republicans have an edge in the Senate, according to our final MRP estimates YouGov The third and final release of YouGov's model estimating every 2024 U.S. Senate election and U.S. House elections in each congressional district shows Republicans taking the Senate by a narrow margin, and Democrats gaining control of the House by an even smaller margin. Each outcome would be a reversal of the current Congress. Nearly half of Americans think Donald Trump personally supports white nationalism; 14% say he opposes it Jamie Ballard, YouGov New YouGov polling finds that about half of Americans think white nationalism poses a serious threat to the United States, and 44% believe Donald Trump personally supports white nationalism.
Most Americans say it’s likely Donald Trump will refuse to concede if he loses the election Jamie Ballard, YouGov A YouGov survey conducted in the final week before Election Day finds that many Americans don’t intend to accept the results of the presidential election as legitimate if their preferred candidate doesn’t win. Most Americans think it’s somewhat or very likely Donald Trump will refuse to concede if he loses, and about one-third would see this refusal as a major threat to democracy in the U.S.
Most Americans say Trump cares a lot about the needs and problems of the rich; 25% say Harris does Jamie Ballard, YouGov A new YouGov survey asked Americans how much they believe Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each care about the needs and problems of many different racial, socioeconomic, and religious groups. The lists of groups that Americans are likeliest to say the two candidates care a lot about are very different.
It's a close race in battleground states, new Times/SAY24 polling finds YouGov YouGov polled seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – between October 25 - 31, 2024, for The Times and SAY24, a joint project of Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.
There’s much, much more in today’s FULL edition of Opinion Weekend: