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AP VoteCast: Voter anxiety over the economy and a desire for change return Trump to the White House Josh Boak & Linley Sanders, Associated Press A disaffected electorate wanted former President Donald Trump to return to the White House, a blatant rejection of Vice President Kamala Harris and her nearly four years with President Joe Biden. The Republican’s victory came from a public so put off by America’s trajectory that they welcomed his brash and disruptive approach. About 3 in 10 voters said they wanted total upheaval in how the country is run, according to AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. AP VoteCast takeaways: Gender voting gap was unremarkable compared with recent history Alexandra Olson, Associated Press Harris had the advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was somewhat narrower than President Joe Biden’s in 2020, according to the survey. In 2020, VoteCast showed Biden won 55% of women, while 43% went for Trump. And it’s nothing new: The majority of women have preferred the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University. Abortion Was a Motivating Factor for Many Voters in Tuesday’s Election But Ranked Lower Than Concerns About the Economy KFF Abortion drove many voters to turn out for Tuesday’s election, but not always for Vice President Kamala Harris, while concerns about the economy weighed more heavily on voters’ minds, according to polling data from KFF and the Associated Press.
How Trump Won, and How Harris Lost Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, New York Times [unlocked] He made one essential bet: that his grievances would become the grievances of the MAGA movement, and then the G.O.P., and then more than half the country. It paid off. How Trump Won, Again Nate Cohn, New York Times He made gains in every corner of the country and with nearly every demographic group. How the Nation Swung Back to Trump in 2024 Zach Levitt, Keith Collins, Robert Gebeloff, Malika Khurana and Marco Hernandez, New York Times [unlocked] Donald J. Trump’s swift victory was driven by red shifts across the country, with gains among seemingly every possible grouping of Americans.
In Trump’s Win, G.O.P. Sees Signs of a Game-Changing New Coalition Michael C. Bender, Katie Glueck, Ruth Igielnik and Jennifer Medina, New York Times [unlocked] Donald J. Trump picked up support among Latino and Black working-class voters, giving the party hope for a new way to win in a diversifying nation. Trump coalition marks a transformed Republican Party Yasmeen Abutaleb, Dan Keating, Sabrina Rodriguez and Josh Dawsey, Washington Post Donald Trump’s return to the White House was powered by a historic realignment of the American electorate that upended decades of traditional coalitions as he maintained his majority support among men and White voters without college degrees but made dramatic inroads with Latinos, first-time voters and middle- and lower-income households, according to preliminary exit polls. Trump’s Multiracial Coalition of Men Is Here Zak Cheney-Rice, New York Magazine The Republicans’ best shot at racial parity with the Democrats has long been to become a multiracial men’s party, given the persistence of the gender gap in how Americans vote. It seems that vision is coming to pass sooner than anyone expected. The single-guy surge didn’t arrive — nor did a leftward shift for women Philip Bump, Washington Post Various pre-election narratives centered on age, gender and marital status don’t seem to have emerged. For Many Arab Americans in Dearborn, Trump Made the Case for Their Votes Hamed Aleaziz, New York Times After supporting Joe Biden in 2020, the majority-Arab American city outside Detroit delivered an unlikely win for Donald Trump, who promised to bring peace to the Middle East. How Trump Connected With So Many Americans Shawn McCreesh, New York Times Donald Trump’s campaign was a blend of comedy, fury, optimism, darkness and cynicism. “He gets us,” some voters concluded. ‘Trump’s America’: Comeback Victory Signals a Different Kind of Country Peter Baker, New York Times [unlocked] In the end, Donald J. Trump is not the historical aberration some thought he was, but instead a transformational force reshaping the modern United States in his own image. Trump’s Populism Is Unleashed After Resounding White House Comeback Mike Dorning, Bloomberg [unlocked] The decisive victory shows Trump’s first term was no aberration. Now, he takes the White House fully schooled in the levers of executive power — and with more leeway to govern as he pleases. Pariah, Felon, President-Elect: How Trump Fought His Way Back to Power Matt Flegenheimer, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, New York Times [unlocked] After the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, even many Republicans believed the former president’s political career was over. He proved everyone wrong. Trump’s triumph threatens an already battered democracy, experts say Sarah Ellison, Washington Post [unlocked] Donald Trump’s return to the White House signals a significant breakdown of an already battered democracy, experts say. Almost as dangerous, they contend, much of the electorate sees him as democracy’s savior. America Hires a Strongman Lisa Lerer, New York Times [unlocked] This was a conquering of the nation not by force but with a permission slip. Now, America stands on the precipice of an authoritarian style of governance never before seen in its 248-year history. Americans Didn’t Embrace Trump, They Rejected the Biden-Harris Administration Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine Trump didn’t win by making people love or even accept him. He won because the electorate rejected the Biden-Harris administration. It is important to clearly discern the sources of that rejection. The work of correction is hard but not complicated. What Trump Understood, and Harris Did Not David A. Graham, The Atlantic [unlocked] The former and future president got one big thing right.
How Trump Won the Economy-Is-Everything Election Rachel Louise Ensign, Rachel Wolfe and Justin Lahart, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Voters expressed anger over prices and frustration about their ambitions feeling out of reach; ‘our daily grind has been so hard’ Democrats Got the Recovery They Wanted. It Wasn’t Enough. Jim Tankersley, New York Times [unlocked] America’s economic growth is the envy of its global counterparts. But voters wanted more from the Biden administration — specifically, lower prices. Kamala Harris Couldn’t Outrun Inflation Annie Lowrey, The Atlantic “Excess” inflation—defined as the cumulative growth of prices in one presidential term compared with the term preceding it—is highly predictive of electoral outcomes, according to the Northwestern economist Robert Gordon. It is a crucial part of how voters decide whether they are better off and want to stick with the incumbent. The measure strongly pointed to a Trump victory. Indeed, since the global post-pandemic inflation spike began, ruling parties around the world, on the left and the right, have been toppled. The Miscalculations That Sent Kamala Harris to a Devastating Loss Tarini Parti, Annie Linskey and Ken Thomas, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Her campaign misread an electorate that was more wound up about inflation and immigration than about Donald Trump’s character The Real Reason Harris and the Democrats Were Always Doomed David Wallace-Wells, New York Times [unlocked] This election wasn’t just about the candidates How Donald Trump Won Everywhere Derek Thompson, The Atlantic [unlocked] This was the second COVID election. Reflections on the recent election Andrew Gelman, Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science What happened yesterday? The first answer from political science is the economy. More specifically, dissatisfaction with the economy. More generally, dissatisfaction manifesting itself in anti-incumbent feeling. Democrats Got a ‘Huge Surprise’ in the Suburbs: ‘It Just Didn’t Work’ Alex Roarty, Em Luetkemeyer and Helen Huiskes, NOTUS Democrats widely expected Kamala Harris to beat Joe Biden’s marks in the suburbs. Instead, she collapsed, upturning what had been a core political conviction of the Trump years. Harris Lost the Very Voters She Needed the Most Timothy Noah, New Republic No working-class majority, no presidential victory. When will Democrats understand this? Kamala Harris Was Dukakis-ed Kenneth Baer, The Bulwark The vice president didn’t apply the most fundamental lesson from the past thirty-plus years: Answer your attacks head on. Will a Woman Ever Be President? Katie Rogers, New York Times [unlocked] After Kamala Harris became the second woman to lose a presidential election to Donald J. Trump, some women wondered if the glass ceiling would ever break. The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin The Democratic Party needs to ask WTF just happened, and the answers may be right there on the 7 train. Provisional Initial Election Thoughts Matt Glassman, Matt’s Five Points Had Trump just served his one term, he might have been a blip. But this election and then four more years of Trump politics is going to completely shatter the previous political order and rearrange the coalitions for several decades. The Democrats will be back; American politics is thermostatic and contingent and their party brand will recover, quite possibly even in time to make major gains in the House in 2026 and capture the presidency in 2028. But they will be fighting on the turf of the new order Trump has ushered in: a conservative populist party as the driving force, and a cosmopolitan liberal party as the opposition. Be honest, America. This is who we are: a bitter, broken land that wants Trump to lead us. Will Bunch, The Inquirer [unlocked] We've been living in a delusional dream state. Donald Trump's big victory is a reality slap: this is what America has become. As with Trump's last term, California will lead the liberal resistance Kevin Rector, Angie Orellana Hernandez, Los Angeles Times [via Yahoo] The last time Donald Trump was president, California led the liberal resistance to his agenda. Now it is poised to reprise the role. The Democratic Party is now Gavin Newsom’s to lead. Does he have what it takes? Emily Hoeven, San Francisco Chronicle If Newsom wants to have any kind of impact at the national level, he will need to do far more than cast himself as the leader of the anti-Trump resistance Donald Trump’s Second Term Is Joe Biden’s Real Legacy Isaac Chotiner, The New Yorker How the President’s protracted refusal to step aside as the Democratic nominee has imperilled his policy achievements—and the country. Blame Biden Tyler Austin Harper (Bates College), The Atlantic [unlocked] Harris was probably doomed from the jump. 2024 turnout is near the 2020 record. See how each state compares. Luis Melgar, Alyssa Fowers and Dan Keating, Washington Post [unlocked] Votes are still being counted in some states, but those tabulated so far and expected totals show a range of turnout across states. Early Results Suggest the Polls Were Notably Accurate Kaleigh Rogers, New York Times Collectively they indicated that the presidential race would be close, and it appears they got it right without significantly underestimating Donald Trump’s support. What the Harris vs. Trump Polls Got Wrong Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine All in all, the Trump-Harris contest was a mixed bag for pollsters and those who slice and dice their data. But nobody should feel misled. It was truly too close to call. Political Betting Markets See Vindication in Trump Victory Michael J. de la Merced, New York Times Prediction markets, which surged to prominence during the presidential campaign, started reflecting a likely Trump win several weeks ago, even as opinion polls showed a tight race.
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PLAYLIST
Democrats begin asking themselves hard questions after Trump win The Chuck ToddCast Kamala Harris has conceded to Donald Trump and we are all in a state of delirium about the election night -- mostly because nobody has slept much in the last 48 hours. Chuck is joined by Doug Sosnik, former political director for Bill Clinton and co-author of “Applebee’s America” and Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors Editor for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Who's sending Trump back to the White House and why? Consider This from NPR In the days leading up to election night, news outlets across the country were predicting a historically close race, one that could take days to call. But as election night progressed, it became clear former President Donald Trump was on a path to victory. Today, we break down how America sent him back to office --- how Trump won in 2024.
How Trump Took Back America The Political Scene | The New Yorker Four years after refusing to accept defeat and encouraging a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, Donald J. Trump has once again been elected President of the United States. The former President, who in the past year alone has been convicted of a felony and has survived two assassination attempts, campaigned largely on a platform of mass deportations, trade wars, and retribution for his detractors. On Tuesday, he secured the Presidency thanks to a surge of rural voters, high turnout among young men, and unprecedented gains with Black and Latino populations. What does a second Trump term mean for America? Clare Malone and Jay Caspian Kang, who’ve been covering the election for The New Yorker, join Tyler Foggatt to discuss how we got here, and the uncertain future of the Democratic Party.
Polls, Prediction Markets, and How Trump Won Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden.
How Trump built a new coalition to send him back to the White House PBS NewsHour The outcome of this year’s presidential election is no longer in question after race calls in the Midwest early Wednesday morning. But we're still learning how Donald Trump built a new coalition to send him back to the White House he lost four years ago. Geoff Bennett and Amy Walter discussed the dynamics behind Trump’s comeback.
Economy was a key issue on the minds of voters NBC News The economy was a key issue for many voters frustrated by inflation and the overall state of the economy. The stock markets soared on the news that Donald Trump had won the election. NBC News' Christine Romans.