Opinion Today
February 12, 2025
National survey finds public strongly favors some Trump policies, strongly opposes others Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll Recognizing only two sexes and immigrant orders are most popular, “Gulf of America” naming and Jan. 6 pardons least popular
Republicans think economy will improve over the next year, Democrats expect it to get worse Andy Cerda, Pew Research Center Republicans and Democrats have very different predictions about how the U.S. economy will fare in the next year. About three-quarters of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (73%) expect the economy to be better a year into President Donald Trump’s second term. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats and Democratic leaners (64%) say it’ll be worse.
Only 4% of Americans support U.S. expansion if it requires force Taylor Orth, YouGov Most Americans aren't as enthusiastic about U.S. territorial expansion as Donald Trump has been. A new survey finds that only 4% of Americans think the U.S. should seek to expand its territory if doing so requires using force.
Under what circumstances do Americans support foreign aid? Taylor Orth, YouGov Americans are somewhat more likely to strongly or somewhat support U.S. foreign aid than they are to oppose it (47% vs. 40%). Three-quarters (75%) of Democrats support the U.S. providing foreign aid, while 62% of Republicans say they are opposed.
Half of Americans would recommend military service to young people they know Chris Jackson, Mallory Newall & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos Most Americans are familiar with four of the U.S. military service branches, while fewer are familiar with the U.S. Space Force
Prescription Drug Advertisements Poll KFF KFF’s January 2025 Prescription Drug Advertisements Poll measures the share of adults who report seeing such advertisements, as well as how these drug advertisements influence the care the public reports receiving from their doctor or health care provider. Most U.S. workers with chronic conditions manage them at work, haven’t told employer Maya Brownstein, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Chronic health conditions are taking a major, hidden toll on the U.S. workforce’s lives and productivity, according to a new national poll by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the de Beaumont Foundation. The poll, conducted among a national sample of U.S. employees, found that three-fourths (76%) of those with chronic conditions—such as hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, and asthma—need to manage their conditions during work hours. Yet a majority (60%) have not formally disclosed their conditions to their employer.
One in Four Applicants Had Difficulty Submitting FAFSA Stephanie Marken and Zach Hrynowski, Gallup Twenty-five percent of U.S. adults who completed the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) for the 2024-2025 school year say the process was somewhat or very difficult. These results are from the Lumina Foundation-Gallup 2025 State of Higher Education Study, conducted Oct. 2-31, 2024. While three in four Americans see Trump as bringing change to government, only two in five view this change as positive Rachael Russell, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report contains polling data on how Americans view Trump’s first few weeks, including perceptions of his handling of the economy and the change he is bringing to Washington. Voters Think Musk Has Too Much Influence, Describe Trump’s Administration as “Chaotic” Data for Progress A new Data for Progress survey, fielded January 31-February 2, examines voters' attitudes toward President Trump’s first few weeks back in the Oval Office. Trump has built a close partnership with billionaire Elon Musk, who leads the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). In the survey, both men’s favorability ratings are underwater with likely voters, with Trump at -5 and Musk at -13. GOP Proposals That Cut Social Safety Net to Give Tax Breaks to the Wealthy Are Unpopular Anika Dandekar, Data for Progress Together with the Student Borrower Protection Center and Groundwork Collaborative, Data for Progress conducted a survey from January 31-February 2 to measure voter sentiment toward cuts to federal funding and tax breaks for the wealthy. The poll shows that many government programs are very popular with likely voters: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and SNAP each have support from more than 3 in 4 respondents.
Voters in Top Competitive Congressional Districts Overwhelmingly Want Congress to Pass a Caregiver Tax Credit AARP Among various tax proposals currently being debated—including eliminating income taxes on Social Security, tips, and overtime pay—voters ranked passing a caregiver tax credit as their top priority.
Michigan: Rogers leads Buttigieg in hypothetical Senate race Shajaka Shelton, WLNS In a hypothetical U.S. Senate race between former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers and former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Michiganders are likelier to vote for Mike Rogers. In an exclusive Epic MRA poll, 47 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for Rogers, and 41 percent were in favor of Buttigieg. 12 percent were undecided. North Carolina: Consumer Sentiment Is Improving, But Inflation Is Still a Concern High Point University Survey Research Center Inflation is still on the minds of North Carolinians interviewed for the latest High Point University Poll. “North Carolinians continue to report high prices, but they are not always concerned about the same purchases,” said Dr. Martin Kifer, chair of political science and director of HPU’s Survey Research Center. “Right now, ‘egg-flation’ is a reality again, but concerns about gas prices have declined.” The Texas Education Divide: Class in the Lone Star State and the 2024 Election Texas Public Opinion Research Exploring the growing educational divide at the ballot box in Texas
Trump is on the popular side of most issues Natalie Jackson (GQR Research), National Journal [unlocked] Democrats’ progressive stances used to be more in vogue. Public opinion has shifted. Democrats in Disarray as Trump Pushes Through Agenda Catherine Lucey, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] After decisive losses in November, party has found little consensus on message or direction Here’s how dejected the Democrats really are Aaron Blake, Washington Post The party doesn’t seem to have much fight in it at a particularly inauspicious time, as poll after poll is showing. The Democratic Party has to change if it wants to win William A. Galston and Elaine C. Kamarck (Brookings Institution), The Contrarian Waiting for Trump to fail is not a strategy. A platform for working people is. How Democrats Lost Their Way on Immigration Michael Baharaeen, The Liberal Patriot There are few issues that seem to have caught Democrats more flat-footed—or left them more out of step with the American mainstream—than immigration. In the 2024 election, voters cited it as the second-most-important issue facing the country behind only the economy, and those who said it was the top issue broke overwhelmingly for Donald Trump. Latinos Bolted to the Right in 2024. Can Democrats Win Them Back? Edgar Sandoval, New York Times [unlocked] Amid the turmoil and controversies of President Trump’s opening weeks, Democrats see an opening with working-class voters wooed by Mr. Trump’s movement. Their Target Is ‘the Very Core of Modern American Liberalism’ Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times [unlocked] Trump’s success in demonizing liberals and Democrats — casting the left as a grave threat to a substantial segment of the electorate — has proved crucial to his decision to turn regulatory and prosecutorial powers into instruments of revenge. Shutdown Showdown Primer Jonathan Bernstein, Good Politics/Bad Politics The Democrats will finally have a bit of clout. But it's complicated. The Path to American Authoritarianism Steven Levitsky (Harvard) and Lucan A. Way (U. of Toronto), Foreign Affairs Donald Trump’s first election to the presidency in 2016 triggered an energetic defense of democracy from the American establishment. But his return to office has been met with striking indifference. The timing of this mood shift could not be worse, for democracy is in greater peril today than at any time in modern U.S. history. Trump is assaulting his own legitimacy David R. Lurie, Public Notice If Trump proceeds in open defiance of the courts he will risk turning the huge asset of a politicized rightwing Supreme Court into a liability. More importantly, Trump may call into immediate question the legitimacy of his own authority — legitimacy the Supreme Court has lent to him through key rulings it bent over backward to issue in his favor. There’s No Need to Guess. JD Vance Is Ready to Ignore the Courts. Ian Ward, Politico Magazine There is no need for interpretive guesswork regarding Vance’s position. In several instances dating back to the start of his Senate campaign in 2022, the vice president has explicitly said that a second-term Trump should defy the courts — even the U.S. Supreme Court — if they stand in the way of him exercising executive authority in ways he deems fit. In Trump’s Washington, Words Become Weaponized Shawn McCreesh, New York Times [unlocked] The previous administration’s progressive lexicon has been swept away, replaced by a new official language of a bureaucracy under fire from its own president. The Trump administration is a crime magnet Henry Farrell, Programmable Mutter But "Springtime for Scammers" has flaws that can be exploited Trump Says the Corrupt Part Out Loud Jonathan Chait, The Atlantic [unlocked] It’s infrastructure week, but for bribery. U.S. hits new low on global corruption index amid concern over courts Sammy Westfall, Washington Post [unlocked] Denmark topped the latest Corruption Perceptions Index, with a score of 90 out of 100. South Sudan fell to the bottom spot, with a score of 8. Apparently, America Is Full of the Wrong Kind of People Carlos Lozada, New York Times [unlocked] If, according to the president, so many people in the United States are the wrong kind, who makes up the right kind? Trump is deporting more immigrants — but the data is incomplete Nathaniel Rakich, 538 It's unclear how many violent criminals are among those ICE has arrested. Make foreign aid great Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring What it means to take "efficiency" seriously, not as a pretext for destruction Efforts to fight foreign influence and protect elections in question under Trump Jenna McLaughlin, NPR News Staffers at the U.S. cybersecurity agency working on countering foreign disinformation and on election security have been put on leave, according to sources who spoke anonymously for fear of reprisal. Democrats unveil state legislative map for the next election cycle, with eyes on opposing Trump's agenda and redistricting Jane C. Timm, NBC News The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is targeting 10 states for gains in the 2025 and 2026 elections.
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PLAYLIST
What if Trump Just Ignores the Courts? The Ezra Klein Show We are moving into the next phase of Donald Trump’s presidency. Phase 1 was the blitz of executive actions. Now comes the response from the other parts of the government — namely, the courts. So what happens if the Trump administration simply tells the courts to shove it? And what other pushback and opposition is the administration beginning to face across the government? Quinta Jurecic, a senior editor at Lawfare, joins me to talk it through.
The Great Political Sorting of American Offices Good on Paper We’re often told that there’s “no room for politics at work,” and yet the workplace is one of the most politically segregated spaces in adult life. The Harvard economics researcher Sahil Chinoy explains the self-sorting happening at every stage of professional life and the trade-offs workers are willing to make in pursuit of ideological uniformity.
Trump Is Testing Checks and Balances. When Is It a Constitutional Crisis? Wall Street Journal President Donald Trump has pushed the boundaries of presidential power in his first three weeks. From signing an executive order to get rid of birthright citizenship to dismantling USAID and allowing Elon Musk’s DOGE to access sensitive payments systems, Trump is testing the boundaries established by Congress and the courts. Will Trump continue and dismantle more agencies like the Department of Education or the Environmental Protection Agency?
Where the 2026 House map stands for Democrats CBS News The Cook Political Report is already spotlighting toss-up races to watch in 2026. Erin Covey, U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report, joins "America Decides" with analysis of the contests that could determine the balance of power in Washington, D.C.