Which Americans support and oppose bombing Iran? David Montgomery, YouGov More Americans disapprove than approve of the U.S. military's bombings of nuclear sites in Iran on Saturday, June 21. Opinion on the bombings is tied closely with political party identification: Most Democrats disapprove of the attacks, most Republicans approve of them, and more Independents disapprove than approve. But YouGov's polling two days after the attack has also identified divisions about the bombings by other characteristics: age, religion, news interest, and views on foreign policy.
Voters 51 - 42 Percent Oppose U.S. Joining Israel In Military Strikes On Iran's Nuclear Sites Quinnipiac University Poll Days after the United States military targeted nuclear sites inside Iran, 42 percent of voters support the United States joining Israel in military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, while 51 percent oppose it, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters. Amid multi-state measles outbreak, 79% of Americans support routine childhood vaccine requirements Maya Brownstein, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health In the midst of a multi-state measles outbreak, a new poll by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the de Beaumont Foundation finds that most U.S. adults (79%) say parents should be required to have children vaccinated against preventable diseases like measles, mumps, and rubella to attend school. This includes a majority of adults across party lines—90% among Democrats and 68% among Republicans—as well as 66% of those who support the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement. More Americans say their employer aligns with their political beliefs Matt Carmichael, Ipsos More Americans now say their employer aligns with their personal political beliefs than last year, a 12-point jump to 61%, according to the Ipsos Consumer Tracker
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to support naming public places after Obama, Harvey Milk, and Malcolm X Jamie Ballard, YouGov A new YouGov survey finds that the historical figures Americans are most likely to say should be honored by the U.S. government with a place or property named after them — from among 30 figures asked about — are several former presidents and civil rights activists.
34% of U.S. adults have used ChatGPT, about double the share in 2023 Olivia Sidoti and Colleen McClain, Pew Research Center The share of Americans who have used ChatGPT, an AI chatbot released in November 2022, has roughly doubled since summer 2023. Today, 34% of U.S. adults say they have ever used ChatGPT, according to a Pew Research Center survey. That includes a 58% majority of adults under 30.
Wisconsin: Evers, Trump job approval ratings steady Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds that 48% of registered voters approve of the job Tony Evers is doing as governor, while 46% disapprove. Forty-two percent say they would like Evers to seek a third term as governor in 2026, while 55% do not want him to run again. President Donald Trump’s approval stands at 47%, while 52% disapprove. Texas: Economic concerns drag Trump’s job approval underwater Jim Henson and Joshua Blank, University of Texas/Texas Politics Project A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds approval of President Donald Trump’s job performance falling into net-negative territory for the first time in his second term, with 44% approving and 51% disapproving, tied for the highest negative job approval rating ever recorded for Trump in University of Texas polling. In the June poll, 44% of Republican voters approved of Sen. John Cornyn’s job performance, while 27% disapproved, with nearly a third either neutral toward the 4-term incumbent (20%) or holding no opinion (10%). Attorney General Ken Paxton’s job approval rating among Republicans, 55%, is 11 points higher than Cornyn’s, while his disapproval rating, 17%, is 10 points lower than Cornyn’s. New Hampshire: Granite Staters Wary of One Big Beautiful Bill University of New Hampshire Survey Center A majority of New Hampshire residents do not want the U.S. Congress to pass President Trump's signature piece of legislation, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," amid bipartisan concern about the federal debt. Maine: State Residents Disapprove of One Big Beautiful Bill University of New Hampshire Survey Center Less than one-third of Maine residents want Congress to pass the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," President Trump's major piece of legislation. However, a majority favor the provision of the bill which would eliminate taxes on tips and overtime. Vermont: Two-Thirds Reject One Big Beautiful Bill University of New Hampshire Survey Center Most Vermont residents do not want Congress to pass President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." Majorities oppose notable provisions of the Act such as making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and removing tax credits for electric vehicles and solar energy. Michigan: U.S. Senate Primary Poll First Principles Digital First Principles Digital recently commissioned a survey, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, of Michigan Republican primary voters looking at GOP Primary voters’ perceptions surrounding Michigan’s 2026 race for U.S. Senate. In a hypothetical matchup in a GOP Primary for U.S. Senate, Mike Rogers leads Bill Huizenga by more than 2-to-1. Minnesota: Walz approval slips, voters evenly divided on whether he should seek third term Ryan Faircloth, Minnesota Star Tribune The DFL governor’s approval rating is underwater outside Hennepin and Ramsey Counties. Republicans say the numbers suggest he could be vulnerable if he runs again. Minnesota: Congressional Democrats get low marks from suburban voters Allison Kite, Minnesota Star Tribune Overall, more than half of Minnesota voters disapprove of how both Republicans and Democrats in Congress are doing their jobs. The Politics of Trump’s Iran Strike John Halpin, The Liberal Patriot Big partisan schism, independents are split, and a broad majority of Americans oppose further escalation. Trump voters cheer his move against Iran. MAGA leaders had warned the bombing could backfire Jill Colvin, Gary Fields, Bruce Schreiner and Adriana Gomez Licon, Associated Press Interviews with Trump voters across the country this week and early polling suggest Trump’s decision has been welcomed by his political base. While some said they were weary of the U.S. becoming embroiled in a protracted war, most cheered the move and said they did not see it as running counter to Trump’s “America First” approach. They voted for Trump. Most still back him - but not on everything Julia Harte, Reuters From her corner of the United States near Houston, Texas, stay-at-home mother Loretta Torres, 38, admires President Donald Trump’s confidence and bargaining style. She has no complaints with his presidency. In Des Moines, Iowa, Lou Nunez, an 83-year-old U.S. Army veteran, has been horrified by Trump’s cuts to federal agencies, whipsaw tariff announcements, and crackdowns on protesters. They are among 20 Trump voters Reuters has interviewed monthly since February about the president’s dramatic changes to the United States’ government, trade policy and immigration enforcement, among other issues. How views on same-sex marriage have changed since the Supreme Court’s 2015 ruling Linley Sanders, Associated Press For years, it looked as though the United States was steadily climbing toward a consensus on same-sex marriage. But 10 years after the Supreme Court ruled that there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, the split between Republicans and Democrats on the issue is wider than it’s been in decades.
The Anatomy of Mamdani’s Political Earthquake Michael Lange, New York Times [unlocked] The 33-year-old State Assemblyman just achieved one of the greatest political upsets in New York City history. The Young College Grads Who Propelled Mamdani to Victory in New York Wall Street Journal [unlocked] The candidate’s message galvanized college-educated earners frustrated by the city’s high costs and low housing availability Zohran Mamdani Won Big. 8 Insiders Lay Out What That Means for the Democratic Party. Politico Magazine The 33-year-old’s upset win in New York signals a potential shift in city politics — and maybe beyond. Mamdani’s stunning rise gives Democrats a playbook — and creates some perils Toluse Olorunnipa, Washington Post [unlocked] The swift ascendance of a 33-year-old democratic socialist in the race for New York mayor has sparked a fierce debate over the future of the party. New York Democrats ignored party elders and chose the better candidate Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post [unlocked] Zohran Mamdani’s apparent win in NYC’s mayoral primary is a triumph for young progressive voters. What the New York Mayoral Primary Means for Democrats Jonathan Lemire, The Atlantic [unlocked] Zohran Mamdani’s success might give the party a few ideas about how to move forward—to a point. The Democrats Just Had Their Tea Party Moment The Great Transformation with Mike Madrid The polls missed it again. While pundits and pollsters scrambled to explain their predictive failures in New York City's recent mayoral primary elections, a more fundamental shift was occurring beneath the surface, one that the consulting class, trapped within their own partisan frameworks, completely overlooked. The Democrats just experienced their Tea Party moment, and the establishment is still trying to process what hit them. What Zohran Mamdani's rise in New York City means for the Democratic Party nationally Ben Kamisar, NBC News The state legislator scored a stunning result after forcefully challenging former Gov. Andrew Cuomo from the left in the Democratic mayoral primary. Mamdani’s Success Spotlights a Deepening Rupture Among U.S. Jews Katie Glueck and Lisa Lerer, New York Times While Zohran Mamdani won over some Jewish supporters, other Jewish Democrats suggested that concerns about their community’s safety are being dismissed in a movement and a city they helped build. Wall Street Panics Over Prospect of a Socialist Running New York City Kevin T. Dugan, Gregory Zuckerman and Brian Schwartz, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s stunning primary win is rattling the financial industry that had backed Andrew Cuomo Why we expect an earthquake in the 2026 midterms James Carville and Stanley B. Greenberg (Democracy Corps), Washington Post Primary voters in big states are sending electable candidates to general elections. Notes on the State of Politics J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball The Mamdani Upset and a Deeper Look at Virginia ‘Big mistakes': Pollsters face recriminations for missing the Mamdani surge Andrew Howard, Politico Just one poll got close to seeing the ascent of the Democratic Socialist who took New York. Polls Underestimated Mamdani. Here’s Why It’s So Hard to Poll Primaries. Ruth Igielnik, New York Times Accurately gauging support in primaries can be notoriously difficult. Pollsters face multiple challenges. Why the Polls Were So Wrong About Zohran Mamdani Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine One of the reasons Zohran Mamdani’s smashing victory yesterday created such a sensation is that public polls (overall) did a poor job of predicting the size and shape of both his and Andrew Cuomo’s coalitions in the Democratic mayoral primary. How Awful Is the Republican Megabill? Here Are Four of the Worst Parts. Jacob S. Hacker and Patrick Sullivan (Yale), New York Times [unlocked] When voters learn what it would do — even Republican voters — they recoil from it. We know, because we asked them. Growth Claims Behind Trump’s Big Policy Bill Rarely Pan Out in Reality Carl Hulse, New York Times A retrospective on four previous Republican-driven tax-cut packages found that the results always come up short compared to bullish predictions of economic booms and lower deficits. ‘Criminal immigrant’ means whatever the administration says it means Philip Bump, Washington Post [unlocked] Trump's deportation goals are being met by targeting non-criminal immigrants. The Supreme Court Is at War With Its Own Judiciary Adam Bonica, On Data and Democracy Between May 1 and June 23, federal judges ruled against the Trump administration 94% of the time. The Supreme Court backed it 94% of the time.
Independent and third-party voter registration growing, largely at the expense of Democrats Jocelyn Shek, NBC News The share of registered voters unaffiliated with either major party has grown nearly 9 percentage points since 2000. The Exhausted Majority: America's Largest Untapped Coalition Steve Caplan, Ctrl+Alt+Persuade Here's a question that should terrify every political consultant in Washington: What if the largest voting bloc in America isn't Democrats or Republicans—but people who are exhausted by politics entirely? Because that's exactly what the data shows. First YouGov MRP since 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as largest party Patrick English, YouGov Today, YouGov have released our first MRP of the new parliament, marking almost a year since the 2024 general election in which Labour won a historic 172 seat majority. If an election were held tomorrow, the central projection from our MRP estimates that Labour would not only lose their majority, falling to 178 seats, but in doing so become second party by some distance in a hung parliament in which Reform UK would be the largest force.
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If we don’t like polarizing politicians, why do we get them? The Science of Politics Politicians are launching outlandish negative attacks and Americans have developed more negative views of the other party. But how connected are polarizing politicians and a polarized electorate? Mia Costa finds that political elites have more polarized views of the other side than the public but they still benefit electorally and legislatively from avoiding negative partisan attacks. Divisive rhetoric still breeds viral tweets, cable news appearances, and donations, but Americans mostly don’t like it or reward it. The polarizers just get more attention.
The New Brexit Strong Message Here This week, Helen Lewis is back! You can hear what Helen has been up to in her absence, before Helen and Armando Iannucci set their sights on the language around Net Zero. They ask, Why has it taken so long for them to cover it on the show? Is it being framed in a relatable enough way? And, does it suffer from being part of an 'omnicause'?
Zohran Mamdani’s rise over Andrew Cuomo fueled by key groups NBC News NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki joins Meet the Press NOW to analyze New York State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s likely upset win over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor.