Opinion Today
February 18, 2026
Democrats expand their lead in the 2026 congressional election David Montgomery, YouGov Democrats have a 7-point lead over Republicans in voting intention for Congress. That's Democrats' largest lead since the Economist / YouGov polls resumed asking this question after the 2024 election, and in part reflects Republicans being more likely than Democrats to say they won't vote or aren't sure how they'd vote.
Trump's immigration approval hits new low, according to Reuters/Ipsos poll Jason Lange, Reuters U.S. public approval of Donald Trump's immigration policies fell to the lowest level since his return to the White House, amid signs he is losing support among American men on the issue, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. Just 38% of respondents in the four-day poll, which closed on Monday, said Trump was doing a good job on immigration, a priority issue for the administration.
A majority of Americans disapprove of Donald Trump and even more disapprove of his handling of the Epstein investigation David Montgomery and Taylor Orth, YouGov A majority of Americans disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling his overall job as president, and even more disapprove of how Trump is handling the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein.
Trump's approval rating reaches record low Eli Yokley, Morning Consult Voters are now 12 points more likely to disapprove than approve of Trump's job performance — his worst mark since returning to office, while his personal favorability rating has also reached a record low.
By a two-to-one margin, Americans approve of ending the immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota Alexander Rossell Hayes, YouGov Majorities of Americans approve of ending the immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota and say that the surge was a bad idea. Americans remain more likely to support than oppose abolishing ICE and more likely to disapprove than approve of Donald Trump's handling of immigration. More Americans say that immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally should be allowed to stay than say they should be deported.
Most Americans say AI will reduce the number of jobs in the U.S. Alexander Rossell Hayes, YouGov Majorities of Americans don't have much trust in AI and think companies are investing too much in it. Most Americans say AI will decrease the availability of jobs. More say it will have a negative effect on the economy than say it will have a positive effect.
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Nearly half of Americans think they'll see catastrophic impacts of climate change in their lifetimes Alexander Rossell Hayes, YouGov Most Americans say the world's climate is changing and nearly half think they will see catastrophic effects of climate change during their lifetimes. Majorities say the U.S. should do more to address climate change, should increase or keep current environmental regulations, and should use more solar and wind energy. More Americans say stricter environmental standards would help the U.S. economy than say stricter standards would hurt it.
Many Americans like the concept of TrumpRx, but the name turns off some of them Alexander Rossell Hayes, YouGov A new YouGov survey included an experiment to understand Americans' views about TrumpRx, a new government website that aims to offer discounted prices to Americans who pay for prescriptions without using insurance.
POLITICO asked 2,000 people about data centers — and made 5 charts Jason Plautz and Christa Marshall, Politico A new POLITICO poll shows that views about the artificial intelligence hubs swing if projects are associated with President Donald Trump.
The trans rights backlash is real Lakshya Jain, The Argument The Democratic Party is bouncing back. The trans rights movement is not.
Why Americans Don’t Trust Their Elected Officials – And How to Fix it Maryann Cousens, Navigator Research This Navigator Research report covers the most recent perceptions of why elected officials are unable to get things done, including who Americans believe are more likely to be beholden to special interests, and how elected officials can show they can be trusted.
Mapping Christian Nationalism Across the 50 States PRRI In 2022, PRRI developed a comprehensive measurement of Christian nationalist ideology, allowing us to track its prevalence nationally and in all 50 states. This report draws upon 22,000 interviews from the 2025 American Values Atlas to update this work, including new analysis examining the correlation between Christian nationalist views and Republican legislative representation.
‘Show Up for Us’: 13 Democratic Voters on Trump, ICE and Their Frustrations With the Democratic Party Katherine Miller, Margie Omero and Adrian J. Rivera, New York Times [unlocked] Amid major debates among activists, pundits and elected officials about what direction the Democratic Party should take, Times Opinion assembled 13 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters to ask how the party is handling the moment, what changes and reprioritizations they want to see, and what kinds of Democrats are standing out.
In Their Words: Trump Voters on Minnesota and Immigration Enforcement More in Common US Last week, More in Common interviewed a key group of 2024 Trump voters about Minneapolis and immigration enforcement. Highly aware and animated, the group had nuanced perspectives on immigration that challenge partisan caricatures. Has Trump Thrown the Democrats a Lifesaver? Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times [unlocked] The president appears determined to prevent his party from achieving a durable majority coalition. Trump Is Raising Billions in Federal Funds. That’s Not a Good Thing. Aziz Z. Huq and Vanessa Williamson, New York Times [unlocked] People tend to associate democratic erosion with election interference and violent police crackdowns. But there’s a quieter tell that a democracy is endangered: the dissolution of laws that protect public money. Trump Has Changed America. Next Up, the World. Massimo Calabresi, New York Times Whatever the difference, if any, between the good cop routine delivered at Munich this year by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the bad cop version by Vice President JD Vance at the event last year, the effect of American policy is the same: The world is changing, for real, and the primary driver of that change is Donald Trump. 50 ways Trump is out of his mind Mark Jacob, Stop the Presses MAGA and the media must stop laughing off this dangerous situation Obama Took On Recession, Health Care and Iraq. What He Didn’t See Coming Was Trump. Peter Baker, New York Times [unlocked] A new set of oral history interviews documents how Barack Obama and his advisers missed the shifting mood of the country that would ultimately replace him with a successor they considered a “con man,” “clown” and “laughingstock.” Obama’s Reminder About the Futility of Purity Politics Michael Baharaeen, The Liberal Patriot For the Democrats, tough love can be hard to receive, but it’s often more tolerable when it comes from someone whom people trust and know has their interests at heart. Why Democrats Should Run Against the Epstein Class Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box Avoiding the false choices that plague Democratic messaging. Jackson’s Death Arrives at a Crucial Moment for Black Political Power Reid J. Epstein and Nick Corasaniti, New York Times [unlocked] There are more Black senators than ever before, but a major Supreme Court ruling could reduce Black representation in the House. Lessons for Democrats From Jesse Jackson’s Rainbow Populism Michael Eric Dyson (Vanderbilt University), New York Times [unlocked] Though he began his career emphasizing the cause of Black civil rights, he became a civil rights leader for Americans from many different walks of life. Turning Point GOP: MAGA’s Collapse After Charlie Kirk's Death The Great Transformation with Mike Madrid If conservatism under Trump had a genuine intellectual foundation, Kirk’s death would have produced a battle of ideas about how to advance it. What it produced instead was a personality brawl between social media operators competing for audience share and donor access. America Needs an Immigration Department William A. Galston, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Congress should also review the law with an eye toward meeting U.S. economic needs. Democrats, You May Already Have Lost the 2028 Election Matthew Continetti, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] How can Kamala Harris be the front-runner? Consider the alternatives: Newsom, Buttigieg, AOC, Shapiro. Noncitizen voting is rare. Why is Washington so focused on it? Dana Nickel, Politico Republicans are zeroing in on proof-of-citizenship requirements — even as critics warn federal support for election cybersecurity is quietly shrinking. The GOP’s worst argument for voter ID Philip Bump, MS NOW Republicans defending the SAVE Act say, “You have to use an ID to show you’re 21 if you want to drink, so why not do the same for voting?” Here’s why that’s nonsensical. What Gallup’s decision reveals about public polling Natalie Jackson (GQR Research), National Journal The incentives for public-service polling have changed dramatically in 88 years. More than politics David Weakliem A New York Times story yesterday said that the conservative organization PragerU had just released ratings of the American presidents, and that their top scores went to Washington, Lincoln, Reagan, and Calvin Coolidge. In contrast, a survey of members of the Presidents and Executive Politics section of the American Political Science Association in 2017-8 placed Lincoln, Washington, FDR, and Teddy Roosevelt at the top. PragerU suggested that the differences reflected politics: "most presidential rankings have come from a narrow, left-leaning perspective."
Could I Ever Lose Your Support? Unconditional Political Bias in the American Public John V. Kane and Ian G. Anson, APSA Preprints Partisan bias poses serious challenges for democracies. Yet scholars rarely study the determinants of partisan bias directly, and without regard for its most extreme manifestations. We propose that extreme partisan bias in favor of a political elite is best defined as unconditional support, wherein a citizen’s support will persist regardless of that leader’s actions. Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets Daniel J. Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data for specific areas suggests that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local employment roughly one-for-one. Extending the analysis to the industry level further suggests that the slowdown of net immigration had a large negative impact on local employment, particularly for construction and manufacturing. TV antennas and Super Bowl rehearsals: How prediction market traders seek an edge Bobby Allyn, NPR News As prediction markets boom, competition is heating up. So traders go the extra mile for a fraction-of-a-second advantage or to sleuth out information nobody else has. It can lead to a huge payday. The science influencers going viral on TikTok to fight misinformation Catriona Clarke, Nature Scientists and medical experts are countering climate denialism, vaccine scepticism and wellness pseudoscience on social media. Evie Magazine, a ‘Conservative Cosmo,’ Takes On the Cultural Moment Olivia Empson, Wall Street Journal [unlocked] Named for a modern version of the Bible’s original woman, Evie aims to reach a new kind of conservative: the churchgoing, city-dwelling, working young mother Ed Crane, Who Built a Libertarian Stronghold, Dies at 81 Trip Gabriel, New York Times Starting with $500,000 in seed money from Charles Koch, Mr. Crane made the Cato Institute the nation’s pre-eminent libertarian think tank.
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PLAYLIST
Map-a-Lago (with Dave Wasserman) Hacks On Tap This week Murphy and Heilemann were joined by the one and only Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. The Hacks dive into Trump’s polling, the standoff over ICE funding, and the attention economy — then put Wasserman on the map (literally) for a midterm check-in across Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and so much more.
Why We Changed Our Minds About Politics The David Frum Show David is joined by Mona Charen, a contributor at “The Bulwark” and longtime conservative commentator. Together, they reflect on their shared political evolution—from their early days as Reagan-era conservatives to their break with today’s Republican Party. They discuss what they believe they got right and what they got wrong, how Trump transformed the conservative movement, and why the version of conservatism they once believed in may be gone.
Kornacki: ‘Ultimate X factor’ in Texas GOP Senate primary would be Trump endorsement NBC News NBC News Chief Data Analyst Steve Kornacki joins Meet the Press NOW to preview the Texas Senate primary election as early voting begins in the state.
'It is not going away': Enten on Epstein files' effect on Trump admin CNN CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten notes that Google searches for "Epstein" are at an all-time monthly high, while the top associated person searched is "Trump."
A look at Jesse Jackson's decades of civil rights advocacy PBS News Hour Rev. Jesse Jackson, the civil rights leader and two-time presidential candidate, died peacefully on Tuesday morning at the age of 84. Geoff Bennett reports on Jackson's legacy and his decades of activism.