November 15, 2021
Economic discontent, criticisms of Biden lift GOP to record early advantage
Gary Langer, ABC News
Republican congressional candidates currently hold their largest lead in midterm election vote preferences in ABC News/Washington Post polls dating back 40 years, underscoring profound challenges for Democrats hoping to retain their slim majorities in Congress next year.
Biden approval hits new low as economic discontent rises, Post-ABC poll finds
Dan Balz, Scott Clement & Emily Guskin, Washington Post [via opiniontoday.com]
Majorities of Americans support President Biden’s $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package and a pending bill that would spend nearly $2 trillion on social programs and climate initiatives. Yet despite the backing for these measures, Biden’s approval rating has ticked down to a new low, driven largely by more negative views among Democrats and independents, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Iowa: In a potential 2024 match, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by double digits
Brianne Pfannenstiel & Stephen Gruber-Miller, Des Moines Register
In a hypothetical 2024 rematch, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Iowa by 11 percentage points, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows. In the new survey, 51% of likely Iowa voters in the 2024 election would vote for Trump, a Republican, while 40% say they would vote for Biden, a Democrat. The poll comes as Biden’s approval rating among Iowans sits near its lowest ebb since he took office in January.
These nine voter groups show the political divide in America
Dante Chinni, NBC News
From equal rights to believing in God, a new survey shows strong internal fissures among the nation’s two major political parties.
Nationalized races threaten Dem governors in ’22
Zach Montellaro, Politico
President Joe Biden's low approval ratings helped sink Terry McAuliffe, but Democrats are counting on a bounce back to save governors in battleground states next year.
Inflation threatens Biden agenda, Democratic majorities
Jonathan Allen, NBC News
Rather than scaring them off, the political uncertainty of the economy has added to most Democrats' sense of urgency around passing Biden's social safety net bill.
Can Biden revive his popularity in time for midterm elections?
John Harwood, CNN
In a nationalized, polarized political era, a president's standing offers the most powerful indicator of his party's prospects. That makes lifting Biden's approval rating, now mired in the low to mid-40s in many polls, the core challenge for Democrats in next year's midterm elections and then the 2024 presidential race. It won't be easy.
History says Biden and Democrats probably won't recover by the midterms
Harry Enten, CNN
President Joe Biden's approval rating is at its lowest point since he took office. His approval rating has slid into the low 40s this month. And while the President has plenty of time to recover before his potential reelection in 2024, history suggests that his chances of becoming popular and Democrats gaining ground by the midterms in 2022 are small. The other worrisome sign for Democrats is the generic congressional ballot. The two parties are basically tied on it now in an average of polls.
How Joe Biden lost his way - the 'new FDR' is looking like the 'new Jimmy Carter'
Matt Gorman, Fox News
Candidate Biden understood he wasn't the next JFK, FDR or LBJ. President Biden doesn't
The polls are clear: Democratic holdouts are killing Biden
James Downie, Washington Post
The new Post-ABC poll finds declines among independents and Democrats who think Biden isn't doing enough. Blame the moderates.
GOP roars back to life in Trump-resistant Pennsylvania suburbs
Holly Otterbein, Politico
The Republican rebound suggests the Democratic suburban slide reaches beyond Virginia and New Jersey.
Racial attitudes shifted over the past decade, leaving the two parties further apart than ever
Dan Balz, Washington Post [via opiniontoday.com]
Democrats moved left, especially White Democrats, and Republicans moved almost not at all. The consequences are playing out every day in the country’s politics.
Flu shots uptake is now partisan. It didn't use to be
Harry Enten, CNN
Uptake of the Covid-19 vaccine has, unfortunately, become partisan like so much else in our society. Almost every Democratic adult (90% to 95%) has gotten a shot, while a little less than two-thirds of Republican adults have. That partisanship appears to have transferred to at least one other important vaccination.
California, Virginia, and the Lessons of 2021
Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box
It is essential that Democrats understand why the California Recall election went so much better than the Virginia and New Jersey elections.
Republicans Gain Heavy House Edge in 2022 as Gerrymandered Maps Emerge
Reid J. Epstein & Nick Corasaniti, New York Times
On a highly distorted congressional map that is still taking shape, the party has added enough safe House districts to capture control of the chamber based on its redistricting edge alone.
The biggest redistricting losers (so far)
Josh Kraushaar, National Journal
Here are the five lawmakers whose odds of winning reelection took the biggest hit as a result of newly drawn congressional lines.
Americans are participating in redistricting like never before
Reid Wilson, The Hill
The number of Americans who have engaged with state legislatures and independent commissions working to redraw political boundary lines in the decennial redistricting process has hit vertiginous new heights as voters inundate mapmakers with proposals, suggestions and objections.
The Decline of Midwestern Democratic US Senators
Eric Ostermeier, Smart Politics
The party has lost half its representation in the region over the last decade and currently holds its fewest seats in more than 60 years